Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Dynamic risk control by human nucleus accumbens

Real-world decisions about reward often involve a complex counterbalance of risk and value. Although the nucleus accumbens has been implicated in the underlying neural substrate, its criticality to human behaviour remains an open question, best addressed with interventional methodology that probes the behavioural consequences of focal neural modulation. Combining a psychometric index of risky decision-making with transient electrical modulation of the nucleus accumbens, here we reveal profound, highly dynamic alteration of the relation between probability of reward and choice during therapeutic deep brain stimulation in four patients with treatment-resistant psychiatric disease. Short-lived phasic electrical stimulation of the region of the nucleus accumbens dynamically altered risk behaviour, transiently shifting the psychometric function towards more risky decisions only for the duration of stimulation. A critical, on-line role of human nucleus accumbens in dynamic risk control is thereby established

Utilidade do Strain Bidimensional por Speckle Tracking da Aurícula e Ventrículo Direito para Predizer Arritmias Tardias em Doentes Adultos com Tetralogia de Fallot Corrigida

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether right ventricular and/or atrial speckle tracking strain is associated with previous arrhythmic events in patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied right ventricular and atrial strain in 100 consecutive patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot referred for routine echocardiographic evaluation. Patients were divided into two groups, one with previous documentation of arrhythmias (n=26) and one without arrhythmias, in a median follow-up of 22 years. Patients with arrhythmias were older (p<0.001) and had surgical repair at an older age (p=0.001). They also had significantly reduced right ventricular strain (-14.7±5.5 vs. -16.9±4.0%, p=0.029) and right atrial strain (19.1±7.7% vs. 25.8±11.4%, p=0.001). Neither right ventricular nor right atrial strain were independent predictors of the presence of a history of documented arrhythmias, which was associated with age at correction and with the presence of residual defects. In a subanalysis after excluding 23 patients who had had more than one corrective surgery, right ventricular strain was an independent predictor of the presence of previous arrhythmic events (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02-1.38, p=0.025). Right atrial strain was also an independent predictor after adjustment (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.99, p=0.029). The ideal cut-off for right ventricular strain was -15.3% and for right atrial strain 23.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with conventional echocardiographic parameters, strain measures of the right heart are associated with the presence of arrhythmic events, and may be useful for risk stratification of patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot, although a prospective study is required.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Acute kidney injury, long-term renal function and mortality in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a cohort analysis

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequent during hospitalization and may contribute to adverse consequences. We aimed to evaluate long-term adverse renal function and mortality after postoperative AKI in a cohort of patients undergoing major abdominal surgery. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of adult patients who underwent major non-vascular abdominal surgery between January 2010 and February 2011 at the Department of Surgery II of Hospital de Santa Maria-Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte, Portugal. Exclusion criteria were as follows: chronic kidney disease on renal replacement therapy, undergoing renal replacement therapy the week before surgery, death before discharge and loss to follow-up through January 2014. Patients were categorized according to the development of postoperative AKI in the first 48 h after surgery using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes classification. AKI was defined by an increase in absolute serum creatinine (SCr) ≥0.3 mg/dL or by a percentage increase in SCr ≥50% and/or by a decrease in urine output to 6 h. Adverse renal outcomes (need for long-term dialysis and/or a 25% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate after hospital discharge) and mortality after discharge were evaluated. Cumulative mortality was analysed with the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test and outcome predictive factors with the Cox regression. Significance was set at P < 0.05. RESULTS: Of 390 selected patients, 72 (18.5%) developed postoperative AKI. The median follow-up was 38 months. Adverse renal outcomes and death after hospital discharge were more frequent among AKI patients (47.2 versus 22.0%, P < 0.0001; and 47.2 versus 20.5%, P < 0.0001, respectively). The 4 year cumulative probability of death was 44.4% for AKI patients, while it was 19.8% for patients with no AKI (log-rank test, P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, AKI was a risk factor for adverse renal outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.6, P = 0.046) and mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.4, P = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS: AKI after major abdominal surgery was independently associated with the risk of long-term need for dialysis and/or renal function decline and with the risk of death after hospital discharge

Environmental Costs of Government-Sponsored Agrarian Settlements in Brazilian Amazonia

Brazil has presided over the most comprehensive agrarian reform frontier colonization program on Earth, in which ~1.2 million settlers have been translocated by successive governments since the 1970's, mostly into forested hinterlands of Brazilian Amazonia. These settlements encompass 5.3% of this ~5 million km2 region, but have contributed with 13.5% of all land conversion into agropastoral land uses. The Brazilian Federal Agrarian Agency (INCRA) has repeatedly claimed that deforestation in these areas largely predates the sanctioned arrival of new settlers. Here, we quantify rates of natural vegetation conversion across 1911 agrarian settlements allocated to 568 Amazonian counties and compare fire incidence and deforestation rates before and after the official occupation of settlements by migrant farmers. The timing and spatial distribution of deforestation and fires in our analysis provides irrefutable chronological and spatially explicit evidence of agropastoral conversion both inside and immediately outside agrarian settlements over the last decade. Deforestation rates are strongly related to local human population density and road access to regional markets. Agrarian settlements consistently accelerated rates of deforestation and fires, compared to neighboring areas outside settlements, but within the same counties. Relocated smallholders allocated to forest areas undoubtedly operate as pivotal agents of deforestation, and most of the forest clearance occurs in the aftermath of government-induced migration

Magnetoresistance through a single molecule

The use of single molecules to design electronic devices is an extremely challenging and fundamentally different approach to further downsizing electronic circuits. Two-terminal molecular devices such as diodes were first predicted [1] and, more recently, measured experimentally [2]. The addition of a gate then enabled the study of molecular transistors [3-5]. In general terms, in order to increase data processing capabilities, one may not only consider the electron's charge but also its spin [6,7]. This concept has been pioneered in giant magnetoresistance (GMR) junctions that consist of thin metallic films [8,9]. Spin transport across molecules, i.e. Molecular Spintronics remains, however, a challenging endeavor. As an important first step in this field, we have performed an experimental and theoretical study on spin transport across a molecular GMR junction consisting of two ferromagnetic electrodes bridged by a single hydrogen phthalocyanine (H2Pc) molecule. We observe that even though H2Pc in itself is nonmagnetic, incorporating it into a molecular junction can enhance the magnetoresistance by one order of magnitude to 52%.Comment: To appear in Nature Nanotechnology. Present version is the first submission to Nature Nanotechnology, from May 18th, 201

Laser Cooling of Optically Trapped Molecules

Calcium monofluoride (CaF) molecules are loaded into an optical dipole trap (ODT) and subsequently laser cooled within the trap. Starting with magneto-optical trapping, we sub-Doppler cool CaF and then load $150(30)$ CaF molecules into an ODT. Enhanced loading by a factor of five is obtained when sub-Doppler cooling light and trapping light are on simultaneously. For trapped molecules, we directly observe efficient sub-Doppler cooling to a temperature of $60(5)$ $\mu\text{K}$. The trapped molecular density of $8(2)\times10^7$ cm$^{-3}$ is an order of magnitude greater than in the initial sub-Doppler cooled sample. The trap lifetime of 750(40) ms is dominated by background gas collisions.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Comparative descriptions of eggs from three species of Rhodnius (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae)

The authors describe and compare the morphological and ultrastructural characteristics of eggs from the three most recent described species of the genus Rhodnius Stål, 1859, which have not previously been studied. These species are Rhodnius colombiensis (Mejia, Galvão & Jurberg 1999), Rhodnius milesi (Carcavallo, Rocha, Galvão & Jurberg 2001) and Rhodnius stali (Lent, Jurberg & Galvão 1993). The results revealed that there are similarities in the exochorial architecture of optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy; these include the predominance of hexagonal cells that are common to all Rhodnius species and variable degrees of lateral flattening, which is common not only to species of this genus, but also to the Rhodniini tribe. Differences in overall colour, the presence of a collar in R. milesi, a longitudinal bevel in R. stali and the precise length of R. colombiensis can be useful distinguishing features. As a result of this study, the key for egg identification proposed by Barata in 1981 can be updated.European Community - Chagas Disease Intervention ActivitiesCNPqCoordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES