Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

2-Iodo-imidazolium receptor binds oxoanions via charge-assisted halogen bonding.

A detailed (1)H-NMR study of the anion binding properties of the 2-iodo-imidazolium receptor 1 in DMSO allows to fully attribute the observed affinities to strong charge-assisted C-IX(-) halogen bonding (XB). Stronger binding was observed for oxoanions over halides. Phosphate, in particular, binds to 1 with an association constant of ca. 10(3) M(-1), which is particularly high for a single X-bond. A remarkably short C-IO(-) contact is observed in the structure of the salt 1·H(2)PO(4)(-)

Theories of Reference: What Was the Question?

The new theory of reference has won popularity. However, a number of noted philosophers have also attempted to reply to the critical arguments of Kripke and others, and aimed to vindicate the description theory of reference. Such responses are often based on ingenious novel kinds of descriptions, such as rigidified descriptions, causal descriptions, and metalinguistic descriptions. This prolonged debate raises the doubt whether different parties really have any shared understanding of what the central question of the philosophical theory of reference is: what is the main question to which descriptivism and the causal-historical theory have presented competing answers. One aim of the paper is to clarify this issue. The most influential objections to the new theory of reference are critically reviewed. Special attention is also paid to certain important later advances in the new theory of reference, due to Devitt and others

On Carnap sentences

The influential proposal that the analytical component of a theory is captured by its ‘Carnap sentence’ is critically scrutinized. A counterexample which makes the suggestion problematic is presented

The development and application of a new tool to assess the adequacy of the content and timing of antenatal care

Abstract Background: Current measures of antenatal care use are limited to initiation of care and number of visits. This study aimed to describe the development and application of a tool to assess the adequacy of the content and timing of antenatal care. Methods: The Content and Timing of care in Pregnancy (CTP) tool was developed based on clinical relevance for ongoing antenatal care and recommendations in national and international guidelines. The tool reflects minimal care recommended in every pregnancy, regardless of parity or risk status. CTP measures timing of initiation of care, content of care (number of blood pressure readings, blood tests and ultrasound scans) and whether the interventions were received at an appropriate time. Antenatal care trajectories for 333 pregnant women were then described using a standard tool (the APNCU index), that measures the quantity of care only, and the new CTP tool. Both tools categorise care into 4 categories, from ‘Inadequate’ (both tools) to ‘Adequate plus’ (APNCU) or ‘Appropriate’ (CTP). Participants recorded the timing and content of their antenatal care prospectively using diaries. Analysis included an examination of similarities and differences in categorisation of care episodes between the tools. Results: According to the CTP tool, the care trajectory of 10,2% of the women was classified as inadequate, 8,4% as intermediate, 36% as sufficient and 45,3% as appropriate. The assessment of quality of care differed significantly between the two tools. Seventeen care trajectories classified as ‘Adequate’ or ‘Adequate plus’ by the APNCU were deemed ‘Inadequate’ by the CTP. This suggests that, despite a high number of visits, these women did not receive the minimal recommended content and timing of care. Conclusions: The CTP tool provides a more detailed assessment of the adequacy of antenatal care than the current standard index. However, guidelines for the content of antenatal care vary, and the tool does not at the moment grade over-use of interventions as ‘Inappropriate’. Further work needs to be done to refine the content items prior to larger scale testing of the impact of the new measure

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Calypso Service Architecture for Broadband Networks

The Calypso project aims at developing an extremely flexible control and service architecture for ATM-based broadband networks. This architecture provides various alternatives to distribute the network and service control functions among clients, servers and different network nodes. This means that a control or service function can reside not only in a network node, but in the customer's workstation or in the service provider's dedicated server. Instead of the traditional ATM or IN signalling, the Calypso architecture uses the TCP/IP protocol suite for the management and control of the network and services. The management, control and user data is transferred by means of IP switching. In addition to IP switching, the architecture will support endto -end native ATM streams with guaranteed Quality of Service. In this paper we compare the Calypso architecture with the traditional B-ISDN and IN architectures. We focus on describing the Java-based Service Execution Environment that provides..

Prediction of fatal or near-fatal cardiac arrhythmia events in patients with depressed left ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction†

To determine whether risk stratification tests can predict serious arrhythmic events after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF <= 0.40). A total of 5869 consecutive patients were screened in 10 European centres, and 312 patients (age 65 +/- 11 years) with a mean LVEF of 31 +/- 6% were included in the study. Heart rate variability/turbulence, ambient arrhythmias, signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG), T-wave alternans, and programmed electrical stimulation (PES) were performed 6 weeks after AMI. The primary endpoint was ECG-documented ventricular fibrillation or symptomatic sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT). To document these arrhythmic events, the patients received an implantable ECG loop-recorder. There were 25 primary endpoints (8.0%) during the follow-up of 2 years. The strongest predictors of primary endpoint were measures of heart rate variability, e.g. hazard ratio (HR) for reduced very-low frequency component ( <5.7 ln ms(2)) adjusted for clinical variables was 7.0 (95% CI: 2.4-20.3, P <0.001). Induction of sustained monomorphic VT during PES (adjusted HR = 4.8, 95% CI, 1.7-13.4, P = 0.003) also predicted the primary endpoint. Fatal or near-fatal arrhythmias can be predicted by many risk stratification methods, especially by heart rate variability, in patients with reduced LVEF after AM

Effect of the summer monsoon on aerosols at two measurement stations in Northern India – Part 2: Physical and optical properties

Aerosol physical and optical properties were measured at two locations in northern India. The first measurement station was a background site in Mukteshwar, about 350 km northeast of New Delhi, in the foothills of the Indian Himalayas, with data from 2006 to 2009. The second measurement site was located in Gual Pahari, about 25 km south of New Delhi, with data from 2008 to 2009. At both stations, the average aerosol concentrations during the monsoon were decreased by 40–75 % compared to the pre-monsoon average concentrations. The decrease varied with the total local rainfall. In Mukteshwar, the monsoon season removed particles from all size classes, due to a combination of rain scavenging and activation to cloud and mountain fog droplets. The scavenging by rain is least effective for the size range of the accumulation mode particles. In Gual Pahari, this was the only major wet removal mechanism and, as a result, the accumulation mode particles were less effectively removed. Aerosol concentrations during the early monsoon were found to be affected by mineral dust which in Gual Pahari was observed as an increased particle volume at a diameter around 3–4 μm. The single scattering albedo varied from 0.73 to 0.93 during the monsoon season, being slightly lower in Gual Pahari than in Mukteshwar. This is due to the fact that Gual Pahari resided closer to high anthropogenic black carbon emissions. As the absorbing particles are typically in the accumulation mode, they were not effectively removed by rain scavenging. The aerosol columnar properties, which were measured in Gual Pahari, showed a somewhat different seasonal behaviour compared to the surface measurements, with the aerosol optical depth increasing to an annual maximum in the early monsoon season