Why does Prediction Accuracy Decrease over Time? Uncertain Positive Learning for Cloud Failure Prediction

With the rapid growth of cloud computing, a variety of software services have been deployed in the cloud. To ensure the reliability of cloud services, prior studies focus on failure instance (disk, node, and switch, etc.) prediction. Once the output of prediction is positive, mitigation actions are taken to rapidly resolve the underlying failure. According to our real-world practice in Microsoft Azure, we find that the prediction accuracy may decrease by about 9% after retraining the models. Considering that the mitigation actions may result in uncertain positive instances since they cannot be verified after mitigation, which may introduce more noise while updating the prediction model. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to identify this Uncertain Positive Learning (UPLearning) issue in the real-world cloud failure prediction scenario. To tackle this problem, we design an Uncertain Positive Learning Risk Estimator (Uptake) approach. Using two real-world datasets of disk failure prediction and conducting node prediction experiments in Microsoft Azure, which is a top-tier cloud provider that serves millions of users, we demonstrate Uptake can significantly improve the failure prediction accuracy by 5% on average

Confirmation of Sentinel Lymph Node Identity by Analysis of Fine-Needle Biopsy Samples Using Inductively Coupled Plasma–Mass Spectrometry

Background: The sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy technique is a reliable means of determining the tumor-harboring status of regional lymph nodes in melanoma patients. When technetium 99 m-labeled antimony trisulfide colloid (99 mTc-Sb2S3) particles are used to perform preoperative lymphoscintigraphy for SLN identification, they are retained in the SLN but are absent or present in only tiny amounts in non-SLNs. The present study investigated the potential for a novel means of assessing the accuracy of surgical identification of SLNs. This involved the use of inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to analyze antimony concentrations in fine-needle biopsy (FNB) samples from surgically procured lymph nodes. Methods: A total of 47 FNB samples from surgically excised lymph nodes (32 SLNs and 15 non-SLNs) were collected. The SLNs were localized by preoperative lymphoscintigraphy that used 99 mTc-Sb2S3, blue dye, and gamma probe techniques. The concentrations of antimony were measured in the FNB samples by ICP-MS. Results: The mean and median antimony concentrations (in parts per billion) were .898 and .451 in the SLNs, and .015 and .068 in the non-SLNs, the differences being highly statistically significant (P < .00005). Conclusions: Our results show that ICP-MS analysis of antimony concentrations in FNB specimens from lymph nodes can accurately confirm the identity of SLNs. Used in conjunction with techniques such as proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy for the nonsurgical evaluation of SLNs, ICP-MS analysis of antimony concentrations in FNB samples could potentially serve as a minimally invasive alternative to surgery and histopathologic evaluation to objectively classify a given node as sentinel or nonsentinel and determine its tumor-harboring status. © 2007 The Author(s)

RNASeq analysis reveals biological processes governing the clinical behaviour of endometrioid and serous endometrial cancers

BACKGROUND: Endometrial carcinoma comprises a group of tumors with distinct histologic and molecular features, and clinical behavior. Here we sought to define the biological processes that govern the clinical behavior of endometrial cancers. METHODS: Sixteen prototype genes representative of different biological processes that would likely play a role in endometrial and other hormone-driven cancers were defined. RNA-sequencing gene expression data from 323 endometrial cancers from The Cancer Genome Atlas were used to determine the transcription module of each prototype gene. The expression of prototype genes and modules and their association with outcome was assessed in univariate and multivariate survival analyses. The association of MSH6 expression with outcome was validated in an independent cohort of 243 primary endometrial cancers using immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: We observed that the clinical behavior of endometrial carcinomas as a group was associated with hormone receptor signaling, PI3K pathway signaling and DNA mismatch repair processes. When analyzed separately, in endometrioid carcinomas, hormone receptor, PI3K and DNA mismatch repair modules were significantly associated with outcome in univariate analysis, whereas the clinical behavior of serous cancers was likely governed by apoptosis and Wnt signaling. Multivariate survival analysis revealed that MSH6 expression was associated with outcome of endometrial cancer patients independently from traditional prognostic clinicopathologic parameters, which was confirmed in an independent cohort at the protein level. CONCLUSION: Endometrioid and serous endometrial cancers are underpinned by distinct molecular pathways. MSH6 expression levels may be associated with outcome in endometrial cancers as a group

Atypical fibroxanthoma and pleomorphic dermal sarcoma harbor frequent NOTCH1/2 and FAT1 mutations and similar DNA copy number alteration profiles

Atypical fibroxanthomas and pleomorphic dermal sarcomas are tumors arising in sun-damaged skin of elderly patients. They have differing prognoses and are currently distinguished using histological criteria, such as invasion of deeper tissue structures, necrosis and lymphovascular or perineural invasion. To investigate the as-yet poorly understood genetics of these tumors, 41 atypical fibroxanthomas and 40 pleomorphic dermal sarcomas were subjected to targeted next-generation sequencing approaches as well as DNA copy number analysis by comparative genomic hybridization. In an analysis of the entire coding region of 341 oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes in 13 atypical fibroxanthomas using an established hybridization-based next-generation sequencing approach, we found that these tumors harbor a large number of mutations. Gene alterations were identified in more than half of the analyzed samples in FAT1, NOTCH1/2, CDKN2A, TP53, and the TERT promoter. The presence of these alterations was verified in 26 atypical fibroxanthoma and 35 pleomorphic dermal sarcoma samples by targeted amplicon-based next-generation sequencing. Similar mutation profiles in FAT1, NOTCH1/2, CDKN2A, TP53, and the TERT promoter were identified in both atypical fibroxanthoma and pleomorphic dermal sarcoma. Activating RAS mutations (G12 and G13) identified in 3 pleomorphic dermal sarcoma were not found in atypical fibroxanthoma. Comprehensive DNA copy number analysis demonstrated a wide array of different copy number gains and losses, with similar profiles in atypical fibroxanthoma and pleomorphic dermal sarcoma. In summary, atypical fibroxanthoma and pleomorphic dermal sarcoma are highly mutated tumors with recurrent mutations in FAT1, NOTCH1/2, CDKN2A, TP53, and the TERT promoter, and a range of DNA copy number alterations. These findings suggest that atypical fibroxanthomas and pleomorphic dermal sarcomas are genetically related, potentially representing two ends of a common tumor spectrum and distinguishing these entities is at present still best performed using histological criteria.Modern Pathology advance online publication, 3 November 2017; doi:10.1038/modpathol.2017.146.</p

High-grade Endometrial Carcinomas: Morphologic and Immunohistochemical Features, Diagnostic Challenges and Recommendations

This review of challenging diagnostic issues concerning high-grade endometrial carcinomas is derived from the authors' review of the literature followed by discussions at the Endometrial Cancer Workshop sponsored by the International Society of Gynecological Pathologists in 2016. Recommendations presented are evidence-based, insofar as this is possible, given that the levels of evidence are weak or moderate due to small sample sizes and nonuniform diagnostic criteria used in many studies. High-grade endometrioid carcinomas include FIGO grade 3 endometrioid carcinomas, serous carcinomas, clear cell carcinomas, undifferentiated carcinomas, and carcinosarcomas. FIGO grade 3 endometrioid carcinoma is diagnosed when an endometrioid carcinoma exhibits >50% solid architecture (excluding squamous areas), or when an architecturally FIGO grade 2 endometrioid carcinoma exhibits marked cytologic atypia, provided that a glandular variant of serous carcinoma has been excluded. The most useful immunohistochemical studies to make the distinction between these 2 histotypes are p53, p16, DNA mismatch repair proteins, PTEN, and ARID1A. Endometrial clear cell carcinomas must display prototypical architectural and cytologic features for diagnosis. Immunohistochemical stains, including, Napsin A and p504s can be used as ancillary diagnostic tools; p53 expression is aberrant in a minority of clear cell carcinomas. Of note, clear cells are found in all types of high-grade endometrial carcinomas, leading to a tendency to overdiagnose clear cell carcinoma. Undifferentiated carcinoma (which when associated with a component of low-grade endometrioid carcinoma is termed "dedifferentiated carcinoma") is composed of sheets of monotonous, typically dyscohesive cells, which can have a rhabdoid appearance; they often exhibit limited expression of cytokeratins and epithelial membrane antigen, are usually negative for PAX8 and hormone receptors, lack membranous e-cadherin and commonly demonstrate loss of expression of DNA mismatch repair proteins and SWI-SNF chromatin remodeling proteins. Carcinosarcomas must show unequivocal morphologic evidence of malignant epithelial and mesenchymal differentiation

Clinicopathologic Features of Incident and Subsequent Tumors in Patients with Multiple Primary Cutaneous Melanomas

0.6–12.7% of patients with primary cutaneous melanoma will develop additional melanomas. Pathologic features of tumors in patients with multiple primary cutaneous melanomas have not been well described. In this large international multi-center case-control study, we compared the clinicopathologic features of a subsequent melanoma with the preceding (usually the first) melanoma in patients with multiple primary cutaneous melanomas, and with those of melanomas in patients with single primary cutaneous melanomas

Cutaneous Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma with Regional Metastases: The Prognostic Importance of Soft Tissue Metastases and Extranodal Spread

Extranodal spread (ENS) is an established adverse prognostic factor in metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC); however, the clinical significance of soft tissue metastases (STM) is unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognosis of patients with STM from head and neck cSCC, and to compare this with that of node metastases with and without ENS. Patients with cSCC metastatic to the parotid and/or neck treated by primary surgical resection between 1987 and 2007 were included. Metastatic nodes > 3 cm in size were an exclusion criterion. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the effect of STM adjusting for other relevant prognostic factors. The population included 164 patients with a median follow-up of 26 months. There were 8 distant and 37 regional recurrences. There were 22 were cancer-specific deaths, and 29 patients died. STM was a significant predictor of reduced overall (hazard ratio 3.3; 95% confidence interval 1.6-6.4; P = 0.001) and disease-free survival (hazard ratio 2.4; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.1; P = 0.001) when compared to patients with node disease with or without ENS. After adjusting for covariates, STM and number of involved nodes were significant independent predictors of overall and disease-free survival. In metastatic cSCC of the head and neck, the presence of STM is an independent predictor of reduced survival and is associated with a greater adverse effect than ENS alone

Diagnostic Accuracy of Fine Needle Biopsy for Metastatic Melanoma and Its Implications for Patient Management

The use of fine needle biopsy (FNB) for the diagnosis of metastatic melanoma can lead to the early removal and treatment of metastases, reduce the frequency of unnecessary surgery, and facilitate the staging of patients enrolled in clinical trials of adjuvant therapies. In this study, the accuracy of FNB for the diagnosis of metastatic melanoma was investigated. A retrospective cohort study was performed with 2204 consecutive FNBs performed on 1416 patients known or suspected to have metastatic melanoma. Almost three-quarters (1582) of these FNBs were verified by either histopathologic diagnosis following surgical resection or clinical follow-up. FNB for metastatic melanoma was found to have an overall sensitivity of 92.1% and a specificity of 99.2%, with 69 false-negative and 5 false-positive findings identified. The sensitivity of the procedure was found to be influenced by six factors. The use of immunostains, reporting of the specimen by a cytopathologist who had reported >500 cases, lesions located in the skin and subcutis, and patients with ulcerated primary melanomas were factors associated with a significant improvement in the sensitivity of the test. However, FNBs performed in masses located in lymph nodes of the axilla and FNBs that required more than one needle pass to obtain a sample were far more likely to result in false-negative results. FNB is a rapid, accurate, and clinically useful technique for the assessment of disease status in patients with suspected metastatic melanoma

Research autopsy programmes in oncology: shared experience from 14 centres across the world

While there is a great clinical need to understand the biology of metastatic cancer in order to treat it more effectively, research is hampered by limited sample availability. Research autopsy programmes can crucially advance the field through synchronous, extensive, and high-volume sample collection. However, it remains an underused strategy in translational research. Via an extensive questionnaire, we collected information on the study design, enrolment strategy, study conduct, sample and data management, and challenges and opportunities of research autopsy programmes in oncology worldwide. Fourteen programmes participated in this study. Eight programmes operated 24 h/7 days, resulting in a lower median postmortem interval (time between death and start of the autopsy, 4 h) compared with those operating during working hours (9 h). Most programmes (n = 10) succeeded in collecting all samples within a median of 12 h after death. A large number of tumour sites were sampled during each autopsy (median 15.5 per patient). The median number of samples collected per patient was 58, including different processing methods for tumour samples but also non-tumour tissues and liquid biopsies. Unique biological insights derived from these samples included metastatic progression, treatment resistance, disease heterogeneity, tumour dormancy, interactions with the tumour micro-environment, and tumour representation in liquid biopsies. Tumour patient-derived xenograft (PDX) or organoid (PDO) models were additionally established, allowing for drug discovery and treatment sensitivity assays. Apart from the opportunities and achievements, we also present the challenges related with postmortem sample collections and strategies to overcome them, based on the shared experience of these 14 programmes. Through this work, we hope to increase the transparency of postmortem tissue donation, to encourage and aid the creation of new programmes, and to foster collaborations on these unique sample collections

Tissue-Specific Features of the T Cell Repertoire After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Human and Mouse

T cells are the central drivers of many inflammatory diseases, but the repertoire of tissue-resident T cells at sites of pathology in human organs remains poorly understood. We examined the site-specificity of T cell receptor (TCR) repertoires across tissues (5 to 18 tissues per patient) in prospectively collected autopsies of patients with and without graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), a potentially lethal tissue-targeting complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation, and in mouse models of GVHD. Anatomic similarity between tissues was a key determinant of TCR repertoire composition within patients, independent of disease or transplant status. The T cells recovered from peripheral blood and spleens in patients and mice captured a limited portion of the TCR repertoire detected in tissues. Whereas few T cell clones were shared across patients, motif-based clustering revealed shared repertoire signatures across patients in a tissue-specific fashion. T cells at disease sites had a tissue-resident phenotype and were of donor origin based on single-cell chimerism analysis. These data demonstrate the complex composition of T cell populations that persist in human tissues at the end stage of an inflammatory disorder after lymphocyte-directed therapy. These findings also underscore the importance of studying T cell in tissues rather than blood for tissue-based pathologies and suggest the tissue-specific nature of both the endogenous and posttransplant T cell landscape