Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. As Stock and Watson (2003) find, some financial variables work well in some countries or over some time periods and forecast horizons, but the results do not show any clear pattern. This may be caused by the changing nature of financial structures within countries across time, or the differing types of financial structures across countries. The authors assess the extent to which financial structure across countries influences the information content of financial variables for predicting real GDP growth and inflation. Their assumption is that financial asset prices will dominate financial quantities in economies with highly developed market-based financial systems. The authors use standard methods to determine the predictive content of common financial asset prices and quantities for 29 countries. They find no systematic pattern between financial structure and whether financial asset prices or quantities are the best financial indicators for monetary policy. Importantly, financial quantities are sometimes the best financial indicator, even in economies with highly developed market-based financial systems. The authors conclude that it would be difficult to tell, a priori, whether a financial asset price or quantity would be the best indicator for monetary policy for a particular country at a particular point in time.Inflation and prices; Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Monetary aggregates; Interest rates

JĘZYKI BERBERYJSKIE W TEKSTACH KONSTYTUCJI ALGIERSKICH. ANALIZA PRAKTYK DYSKURSYWNYCH W UJĘCIU DYSKURSYWNYM I JURYSLINGWISTYCZNYM

Our contribution consists in analyzing the discursive practices of the three Algerian constitutional texts (1996, 2002, and 2016) dedicated to the constititionalisation of the Amazigh language. It is about showing and putting in evidence, through a textual and pragmatic analysis of these texts, the status and the definition that has been scattered over the national territory. To carry out our analysis, we will mainly appeal to the field of jurilinguistics. Moreover, the Amazigh language is defined in the constitution as a set of certified varieties throughout the national territory.Résumé : Notre contribution consiste à analyser les pratiques discursives des trois textes constitutionnels algériens (1996, 2002 et 2016) dédiés à la à la constitutionnalisation de la langue amazighe. Il s’agit de montrer et de dégager, à travers une analyse textuelle et pragmatique de ces textes, le statut et la définition qui lui a été réservée en tant que langue qui se présente sous forme de plusieurs variétés dispersées sur le territoire national.   Pour mener à bien notre analyse, nous ferons appel principalement au domaine de la jurilinguistique.  Par ailleurs, la langue amazighe est définie dans la constitution prise comme un ensemble de variétés attestées dans le territoire national.Przedmiotem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza praktyk dyskursywnych w trzech algierskich tekstach konstytucyjnych (1996, 2002 oraz 2016) w zakresie konstytucjonalizacji języka tamazight. Analiza tekstowa i pragmatyczna tych tekstów ma na celu przybliżenie statusu oraz definicji tego języka jako języka wernakularnego, używanego pod postacią różnych narzeczy występujących na terytorium narodowym. Główny punkt odniesienia dla analizy stanowią prace z dziedziny juryslingwistyki. Także w konstytucji język tamazight jest definiowany jako narzeczy, których istnienie zostało odnotowane na terytorium narodowym

A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area

The authors estimate and solve a small structural model for the euro area over the 1983–2000 period. Given the assumption of rational expectations, the model implies a set of orthogonality conditions that provide the basis for estimating the model’s parameter by generalized method of moments. The authors’ main results are: (i) the impulse-response functions implied by the model are consistent with the standard stylized facts about the dynamic effects of monetary policy, (ii) evidence suggests that flexibility in Europe has increased since the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty, and (iii) the inflation expectations captured by the model might explain the European Central Bank’s reluctance to ease monetary conditions in 2000.Transmission of monetary policy

Néologismes et calques dans le kabyle moderne: Cas du code de la route et des journaux d’information

Notre contribution s’articule autour d’une analyse lexico-sémantique et syntaxique de la terminologie du code de la route d’Ali Khalfa (2005) et des journaux d’information en berbère (kabyle) en mettant en exergue les procédés utilisés lors de la création des néologismes et les caractéristiques syntaxiques de la langue utilisée. Pour ce faire, nous avons comparé la langue utilisée dans ces publications et celle de l’usage pour voir le degré d’attestation des règles en question dans le kabyle de l’usage moderne. Notre hypothèse consiste à dire que les textes de l’usage moderne du kabyle sont caractérisés par des structures calquées sur la langue française, et sur le plan de la création néologique et sur le niveau syntaxique. En effet, certaines créations néologiques par calque génèrent de nouvelles structures non attestées et incompréhensibles dans l’usage quotidien.Our contribution articulates around a lexico-semantic and syntactic analysis of the terminology of the traffic rules by Ali Khalfa ( 2005 ) and Berber (kabylian) newspapers, highlighting the processes used in the creation of neologisms and the syntactic characteristics of the language used. Within this intention, we compared the language used in these publications and that really in use in everyday life in order to check the degree of attestation of the rules in question. Our hypothesis consists in saying that the texts of the modern use are characterized by structures modeled on the French language both at the neological creation level as well as on that of syntactic one. Indeed, certain neological creations by layer generate new unattested and incomprehensible structures in the daily use.Le présent ouvrage est financé par le CNRS (projet PICS – franco-polonais EmpNeo) et par l’Institut d’Études Romanes de l’Université de Łód

Changes in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Monetary Aggregates

Although many countries have abandoned monetary targeting in recent decades, monetary aggregates are still useful indicators of future economic activity. Past research has shown that, compared with other monetary aggregates and expressed in real terms, net M1 and gross M1 have traditionally provided superior leading information for output growth. Yet financial innovations and the elimination of reserve requirements over the past two decades have made it increasingly difficult for financial institutions to differentiate between demand and notice deposits, suggesting the need to re-examine the information content of narrow monetary aggregates that depend on such a distinction. Based on an analysis over a sample period from 1975Q1 to 2005Q1, the authors determine that the leading-indicator properties of the narrow monetary aggregates for output growth have shifted over time and that, since 1993, real M1+ has become a better indicator of future output growth than real gross and net M1.

La diversité linguistique dans le medias algérien: facteur rassembleur pour un dialogue interculturel et un rapprochement entre les peuples de la Méditerranée

La Méditerranée constitue aujourd’hui un des espaces les plus marqués par le déplacement des personnes, des migrations individuelles et collectives et se caractérise donc par le plurilinguisme, le multiculturalisme, la mixité et la diversité des cultures. Dans cette optique, les langues jouent un rôle primordial. Elles sont le médium des expériences mutuelles, des environnements intellectuels et culturels, des systèmes de valeurs, des codes sociaux et surtout du sentiment d’appartenance sociale aussi bien sur le plan collectif qu’individuel. Ceci est particulièrement vrai pour l’Algérie, société plurilingue, et dont le paysage linguistique se définit par la coexistence de plusieurs variétés langagières qui vadu substrat berbère aux différentes langues étrangères en passant par la langue arabe, vecteur de l’islamisation et de l’arabisation de l’Afrique du nord. Enfin cette diversité linguistique et culturelle appelle, dans le cadre du dialogue interculturel de l’espace méditerranéen à la diversité médiatique aussi bien pour les medias classiques que pour les supports nés des nouvelles technologies de l’information et de la communication (Internet, presse électronique, réseaux sociaux, téléphone mobile etc…).The Mediterranean constitutes today one of the regions most marked by the displacement of persons, individual and collective migrations and is thus characterized by the pluralingualism, multiculturalism, social and cultural diversity. In this perspective, languages play a primordial role. They are the medium of the mutual experiences, intellectual and cultural environments, systems of values, and social codes. They are actually the media of the feeling of close, social relationships at the collective as well as individual levels. This is particularly true for Algeria, a pluralinguist society whose linguistic area could be described by the coexistence of several linguistic varieties from the Berber substratum to the various foreign languages via Arabic, vector of Islamization and Arabization of north Africa. Finally, this linguistic and cultural diversity calls, within the framework of intercultural dialogue of the Mediterranean region, for media diversity. This concerns both the traditional media and the supports born of communication and information (Internet, electronic press, social networks, mobile telephony etc…).O Mediterrâneo constitui hoje um dos espaços mais marcados pelo deslocamento das pessoas, pelas migrações individuais e coletivas e se caracteriza, portanto, pelo plurilinguismo, pela multiculturalidade, pela mistura e pela diversidadede culturas. sob esta ótica, as línguas têm um papel primordial. Elas são o meio de experiências mútuas, ambientes intelectuais e culturais, sistemas de valores, códigos sociais e sentimento, especialmente social, tanto coletiva como individualmente. Isto é particularmente verdadeiro para a Argélia, sociedade multilingue, e cuja paisagem linguística é definida pela coexistência de múltiplas variedades linguísticas que vão do substrato berbere às diferentes línguas estrangeiras, passando pela língua árabe, o vetor de islamização e da arabização da África do norte. Finalmente, esta diversidade linguística e cultural apela, no contexto do diálogo intercultural na região do Mediterrâneo, para a diversidade da mídia, tanto para mídias tradicionais como os meios de comunicação nascidos das novas tecnologias de informação e comunicação (Internet, mídia eletrônica, redes sociais, celular etc.)

A preliminary survey of attitudes to UK construction procurement practice

Although much literature on construction procurement is based on personal experiences, there is little data available to undertake realistic comparison between regions or from one year to another. A survey was undertaken in the UK to examine the feasibility of developing a replicable survey technique that will enable longitudinal studies and international comparisons. The survey showed that a majority felt traditional procurement methods were inappropriate. However, traditional general contracting is still the most common form of procurement. There was strong agreement that economic muscle compels weaker contracting parties to accept onerous contractual terms. There is no relationship between the size of a project and its procurement method, contrary to popular belief. The findings indicate that wider surveys would generate useful data about attitudes

Simulations du ratio du service de la dette des consommateurs en utilisant des données micro

The author constructs a formal analytic framework to simulate the impact of various economic shocks on the household debt-service ratio, using data from the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey. The impact of these shocks on individual households depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the latter. The framework also allows consideration of both symmetric and asymmetric shocks to incomes. The author's work is original in several respects: it captures the heterogeneity of the impact of these shocks on households, it uses cross-sectional data to estimate credit-growth equations, and it determines household credit growth based on income, interest rates, and housing prices. To illustrate the usefulness of his approach, the author provides income, debt, and interest rate scenarios, and then simulates his model over twelve periods. This methodology can, of course, be used with other microdata.Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability

Environnement numérique et formation des journalistes en Algerie

La présente communication a pour objet l’examen de l’évolution du monde des médias à la lumière de l’intégration et de l’adaptation des technologies de l’information et de la communication et des échanges électroniques ( rapidité, instantanéité) ainsi que l’étude de l’introduction des nouvelles et/ou spécifiques compétences ayant trait à la formation des journalistes et à la pratique journalistique induite par le nouveau cadre de liaison numérique dédié aux médias.The present communication has as an aim the examination of the evolution of the world of the media in the light of integration and the adaptation of electronic exchange and communication and information technologies (speed, instantaneity) as well as the study of the introduction of the new and/or specific competences related to the training of the journalists and the journalistic practice induced by the new framework of digital link dedicated to the media.A presente comunicação tem por objetivo o exame da evolução do mundo da mídia à luz da integração e da adaptação das tecnologias da informação e da comunicação às mudanças eletrônicas (rapidez, instantaneidade), bem como o estudo da introdução das notícias e/ou específicas competências relacionadas com a formação de jornalistas e à prática jornalística induzida pelo novo quadro de ligação digital dedicado à mídia