Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

The Role of Chemokines and their Receptors in Colorectal Cancer

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Optimizing postoperative handover to the intensive care unit at a tertiary centre

Background: Comprehensive handover of patients transferred from operating theatre to the intensive care unit is crucial in ensuring ongoing quality and safety of care. Handover in this setting poses unique challenges, yet few studies have considered or tested approaches to improve the process. A quality improvement project was undertaken to assess and improve the quality of information transfer during the handover of postoperative patients to the general intensive care unit at a tertiary centre. Methods: This quality improvement project considered all postoperative patients aged 18 years and over, using the plan-do-study-act (PDSA) approach, over a 3-month period in 2015. Baseline audit encompassing intraoperative details (allergies, grade of intubation, estimated blood loss, difficulties and complications) and the postoperative plan (analgesia, thromboprophylaxis, antibiotics and their proposed duration and nutrition) was undertaken to define the extent of the clinical problem. Changes were implemented over two cycles, centred around a novel checklist, and the transfer of information was re-audited after each cycle. Results: Baseline audit (n=30) revealed a need for improvement across all domains. In PDSA cycle 1, a novel checklist was introduced which led to global improvement across all areas with performance exceeding 70% in all but three out of nine domains (n=33). Engaging key stakeholders (PDSA cycle 2) resulted in overall improvement from baseline but decreased performance in just under half of domains in comparison to PDSA cycle 1 (n=31). Conclusions: Successful implementation of a series of simple interventions resulted in more effective handover of postoperative patients admitted to an intensive care unit. Sustained long-term improvement is a major challenge and can only be achieved with the global engagement of all staff and incorporation of changes into routine clinical practice. </jats:sec

Sixty years of research on bracken fern (Pteridium spp.) toxins:Environmental exposure, health risks and recommendations for bracken fern control

Bracken fern (Pteridium spp.) is a highly problematic plant worldwide due to its toxicity in combination with invasive properties on former farmland, in deforested areas and on disturbed natural habitats. The carcinogenic potential of bracken ferns has caused scientific and public concern for six decades. Its genotoxic effects are linked to illudane-type glycosides (ITGs), their aglycons and derivatives. Ptaquiloside is considered the dominating ITG, but with significant contributions from other ITGs. The present review aims to compile evidence regarding environmental pollution by bracken fern ITGs, in the context of their human and animal health implications. The ITG content in bracken fern exhibits substantial spatial, temporal, and chemotaxonomic variation. Consumption of bracken fern as food is linked to human gastric cancer but also causes urinary bladder cancers in bovines browsing on bracken. Genotoxic metabolites are found in milk and meat from bracken fed animals. ITG exposure may also take place via contaminated water with recent data pointing to concentrations at microgram/L-level following rain events. Airborne ITG-exposure from spores and dust has also been documented. ITGs may synergize with major biological and environmental carcinogens like papillomaviruses and Helicobacter pylori to induce cancer, revealing novel instances of chemical and biological co-carcinogenesis. Thus, the emerging landscape from six decades of bracken research points towards a global environmental problem with increasingly complex health implications

Delayed colorectal cancer care during covid-19 pandemic (decor-19). Global perspective from an international survey

Background The widespread nature of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been unprecedented. We sought to analyze its global impact with a survey on colorectal cancer (CRC) care during the pandemic. Methods The impact of COVID-19 on preoperative assessment, elective surgery, and postoperative management of CRC patients was explored by a 35-item survey, which was distributed worldwide to members of surgical societies with an interest in CRC care. Respondents were divided into two comparator groups: 1) ‘delay’ group: CRC care affected by the pandemic; 2) ‘no delay’ group: unaltered CRC practice. Results A total of 1,051 respondents from 84 countries completed the survey. No substantial differences in demographics were found between the ‘delay’ (745, 70.9%) and ‘no delay’ (306, 29.1%) groups. Suspension of multidisciplinary team meetings, staff members quarantined or relocated to COVID-19 units, units fully dedicated to COVID-19 care, personal protective equipment not readily available were factors significantly associated to delays in endoscopy, radiology, surgery, histopathology and prolonged chemoradiation therapy-to-surgery intervals. In the ‘delay’ group, 48.9% of respondents reported a change in the initial surgical plan and 26.3% reported a shift from elective to urgent operations. Recovery of CRC care was associated with the status of the outbreak. Practicing in COVID-free units, no change in operative slots and staff members not relocated to COVID-19 units were statistically associated with unaltered CRC care in the ‘no delay’ group, while the geographical distribution was not. Conclusions Global changes in diagnostic and therapeutic CRC practices were evident. Changes were associated with differences in health-care delivery systems, hospital’s preparedness, resources availability, and local COVID-19 prevalence rather than geographical factors. Strategic planning is required to optimize CRC care