Inferring the eccentricity distribution

Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple histogram of estimated eccentricities is not a good estimate of the true eccentricity distribution. Here we develop and test a hierarchical probabilistic method for performing the relevant meta-analysis, that is, inferring the true eccentricity distribution, taking as input the likelihood functions for the individual-star eccentricities, or samplings of the posterior probability distributions for the eccentricities (under a given, uninformative prior). The method is a simple implementation of a hierarchical Bayesian model; it can also be seen as a kind of heteroscedastic deconvolution. It can be applied to any quantity measured with finite precision--other orbital parameters, or indeed any astronomical measurements of any kind, including magnitudes, parallaxes, or photometric redshifts--so long as the measurements have been communicated as a likelihood function or a posterior sampling.Comment: Ap

Dynamical inference from a kinematic snapshot: The force law in the Solar System

If a dynamical system is long-lived and non-resonant (that is, if there is a set of tracers that have evolved independently through many orbital times), and if the system is observed at any non-special time, it is possible to infer the dynamical properties of the system (such as the gravitational force or acceleration law) from a snapshot of the positions and velocities of the tracer population at a single moment in time. In this paper we describe a general inference technique that solves this problem while allowing (1) the unknown distribution function of the tracer population to be simultaneously inferred and marginalized over, and (2) prior information about the gravitational field and distribution function to be taken into account. As an example, we consider the simplest problem of this kind: We infer the force law in the Solar System using only an instantaneous kinematic snapshot (valid at 2009 April 1.0) for the eight major planets. We consider purely radial acceleration laws of the form a_r = -A [r/r_0]^{-\alpha}, where r is the distance from the Sun. Using a probabilistic inference technique, we infer 1.989 < \alpha < 2.052 (95 percent interval), largely independent of any assumptions about the distribution of energies and eccentricities in the system beyond the assumption that the system is phase-mixed. Generalizations of the methods used here will permit, among other things, inference of Milky Way dynamics from Gaia-like observations

Spintronic magnetic anisotropy

An attractive feature of magnetic adatoms and molecules for nanoscale applications is their superparamagnetism, the preferred alignment of their spin along an easy axis preventing undesired spin reversal. The underlying magnetic anisotropy barrier --a quadrupolar energy splitting-- is internally generated by spin-orbit interaction and can nowadays be probed by electronic transport. Here we predict that in a much broader class of quantum-dot systems with spin larger than one-half, superparamagnetism may arise without spin-orbit interaction: by attaching ferromagnets a spintronic exchange field of quadrupolar nature is generated locally. It can be observed in conductance measurements and surprisingly leads to enhanced spin filtering even in a state with zero average spin. Analogously to the spintronic dipolar exchange field, responsible for a local spin torque, the effect is susceptible to electric control and increases with tunnel coupling as well as with spin polarization.Comment: 6 pages with 4 figures + 26 pages of Supplementary Informatio

The velocity distribution of nearby stars from Hipparcos data II. The nature of the low-velocity moving groups

The velocity distribution of nearby stars contains many "moving groups" that are inconsistent with the standard assumption of an axisymmetric, time-independent, and steady-state Galaxy. We study the age and metallicity properties of the low-velocity moving groups based on the reconstruction of the local velocity distribution in Paper I of this series. We perform stringent, conservative hypothesis testing to establish for each of these moving groups whether it could conceivably consist of a coeval population of stars. We conclude that they do not: the moving groups are not trivially associated with their eponymous open clusters nor with any other inhomogeneous star formation event. Concerning a possible dynamical origin of the moving groups, we test whether any of the moving groups has a higher or lower metallicity than the background population of thin disk stars, as would generically be the case if the moving groups are associated with resonances of the bar or spiral structure. We find clear evidence that the Hyades moving group has higher than average metallicity and weak evidence that the Sirius moving group has lower than average metallicity, which could indicate that these two groups are related to the inner Lindblad resonance of the spiral structure. Further we find weak evidence that the Hercules moving group has higher than average metallicity, as would be the case if it is associated with the bar's outer Lindblad resonance. The Pleiades moving group shows no clear metallicity anomaly, arguing against a common dynamical origin for the Hyades and Pleiades groups. Overall, however, the moving groups are barely distinguishable from the background population of stars, raising the likelihood that the moving groups are associated with transient perturbations. [abridged

The Color Variability of Quasars

We quantify quasar color-variability using an unprecedented variability database - ugriz photometry of 9093 quasars from SDSS Stripe 82, observed over 8 years at ~60 epochs each. We confirm previous reports that quasars become bluer when brightening. We find a redshift dependence of this blueing in a given set of bands (e.g. g and r), but show that it is the result of the flux contribution from less-variable or delayed emission lines in the different SDSS bands at different redshifts. After correcting for this effect, quasar color-variability is remarkably uniform, and independent not only of redshift, but also of quasar luminosity and black hole mass. The color variations of individual quasars, as they vary in brightness on year timescales, are much more pronounced than the ranges in color seen in samples of quasars across many orders of magnitude in luminosity. This indicates distinct physical mechanisms behind quasar variability and the observed range of quasar luminosities at a given black hole mass - quasar variations cannot be explained by changes in the mean accretion rate. We do find some dependence of the color variability on the characteristics of the flux variations themselves, with fast, low-amplitude, brightness variations producing more color variability. The observed behavior could arise if quasar variability results from flares or ephemeral hot spots in an accretion disc.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ - in press, 17 pages, 14 figures - v2: abstract typo corrected & reference clean-u

Think Outside the Color Box: Probabilistic Target Selection and the SDSS-XDQSO Quasar Targeting Catalog

We present the SDSS-XDQSO quasar targeting catalog for efficient flux-based quasar target selection down to the faint limit of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) catalog, even at medium redshifts (2.5 <~ z <~ 3) where the stellar contamination is significant. We build models of the distributions of stars and quasars in flux space down to the flux limit by applying the extreme-deconvolution method to estimate the underlying density. We convolve this density with the flux uncertainties when evaluating the probability that an object is a quasar. This approach results in a targeting algorithm that is more principled, more efficient, and faster than other similar methods. We apply the algorithm to derive low-redshift (z < 2.2), medium-redshift (2.2 <= z 3.5) quasar probabilities for all 160,904,060 point sources with dereddened i-band magnitude between 17.75 and 22.45 mag in the 14,555 deg^2 of imaging from SDSS Data Release 8. The catalog can be used to define a uniformly selected and efficient low- or medium-redshift quasar survey, such as that needed for the SDSS-III's Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey project. We show that the XDQSO technique performs as well as the current best photometric quasar-selection technique at low redshift, and outperforms all other flux-based methods for selecting the medium-redshift quasars of our primary interest. We make code to reproduce the XDQSO quasar target selection publicly available

Genes Suggest Ancestral Colour Polymorphisms Are Shared across Morphologically Cryptic Species in Arctic Bumblebees

email Suzanne orcd idCopyright: © 2015 Williams et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Does Medical Staffing Influence Perceived Safety? An International Survey on Medical Crew Models in Helicopter Emergency Medical Services

Objective: The competence, composition, and number of crewmembers have generally been considered to influence the degree of patient care and safety in helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS), but evidence to support the advantages of one crew concept over another is ambiguous; additionally, the benefit of physicians as crewmembers is still highly debated. Methods: To compare perceived safety in different medical crew models, we surveyed international HEMS medical directors regarding the types of crew compositions their system currently used and their supportive rationales and to evaluate patient and flight safety within their services. Results: Perceived patient and flight safety is higher when HEMS is staffed with a dual medical crew in the cabin. Tradition and scientific evidence are the most common reasons for the choice of medical crew. Most respondents would rather retain their current crew configuration, but some would prefer to add a physician or supplement the physician with an assistant in the cabin. Conclusion: Our survey shows a wide variety of medical staffing models in HEMS and indicates that these differences are mainly related to medical competencies and the availability of an assistant in the medical cabin. The responses suggest that differences in medical staffing influence perceived flight and patient safety.publishedVersio

Receptor Activity-modifying Protein-directed G Protein Signaling Specificity for the Calcitonin Gene-related Peptide Family of Receptors.

The calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) family of G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) is formed through the association of the calcitonin receptor-like receptor (CLR) and one of three receptor activity-modifying proteins (RAMPs). Binding of one of the three peptide ligands, CGRP, adrenomedullin (AM), and intermedin/adrenomedullin 2 (AM2), is well known to result in a Gαs-mediated increase in cAMP. Here we used modified yeast strains that couple receptor activation to cell growth, via chimeric yeast/Gα subunits, and HEK-293 cells to characterize the effect of different RAMP and ligand combinations on this pathway. We not only demonstrate functional couplings to both Gαs and Gαq but also identify a Gαi component to CLR signaling in both yeast and HEK-293 cells, which is absent in HEK-293S cells. We show that the CGRP family of receptors displays both ligand- and RAMP-dependent signaling bias among the Gαs, Gαi, and Gαq/11 pathways. The results are discussed in the context of RAMP interactions probed through molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations of the RAMP-GPCR-G protein complexes. This study further highlights the importance of RAMPs to CLR pharmacology and to bias in general, as well as identifying the importance of choosing an appropriate model system for the study of GPCR pharmacology.This work was supported by the National Heart Foundation of New Zealand (H.W.), the School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland seed fund (H.W.), the BBSRC (G.L. - BB/M00015X/1), (D.P. - BB/M000176/1), (C.A.R. - BB/M006883/1), a BBSRC Doctoral Training Partnership (M.H. – BB/JO14540/1), an MRC Doctoral Training Partnership (I.W. - MR/J003964/1), a Warwick Impact Fund (C.W., G.L.), a Warwick Research Development Fund (C.W., G.L.) grant number (RD13301) and the Warwick Undergraduate Research Scholarship Scheme (A.S and R.H).This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under an indefinite embargo pending publication by the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology

The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area therefore calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this paper, we present and discuss the problem solving strategies employed by sixteen experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation tool — the critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge