GARFIELD-AF model for prediction of stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation: a Danish nationwide validation study.

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate the accuracy of the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) model against existing risk scores for stroke and major bleeding risk in patients with non-valvular AF in a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Danish nationwide registries. PARTICIPANTS: 90 693 patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF were included between 2010 and 2016, with follow-up censored at 1 year. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: External validation was performed using discrimination and calibration plots. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2VASc score for ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and HAS-BLED score for major bleeding/haemorrhagic stroke outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 90 693 included, 51 180 patients received oral anticoagulants (OAC). Overall median age (Q1, Q3) were 75 (66-83) years and 48 486 (53.5%) were male. At 1-year follow-up, a total of 2094 (2.3%) strokes/SE, 2642 (2.9%) major bleedings and 10 915 (12.0%) deaths occurred. The GARFIELD-AF model was well calibrated with the predicted risk for stroke/SE and major bleeding. The discriminatory value of GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc for predicting stroke in the overall cohort (C-index: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.72 vs C-index: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.68, p<0.001) as well as in low-risk patients (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.69 vs C-index: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.61, p=0.007). The GARFIELD-AF model was comparable to HAS-BLED in predicting the risk of major bleeding in patients on OAC therapy (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.66 vs C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.65, p=0.60). CONCLUSION: In a nationwide Danish cohort with non-valvular AF, the GARFIELD-AF model adequately predicted the risk of ischaemic stroke/SE and major bleeding. Our external validation confirms that the GARFIELD-AF model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc in predicting stroke/SE and comparable with HAS-BLED for predicting major bleeding

Effects of Thyroxine Exposure on Osteogenesis in Mouse Calvarial Pre-Osteoblasts

The incidence of craniosynostosis is one in every 1,800-2500 births. The gene-environment model proposes that if a genetic predisposition is coupled with environmental exposures, the effects can be multiplicative resulting in severely abnormal phenotypes. At present, very little is known about the role of gene-environment interactions in modulating craniosynostosis phenotypes, but prior evidence suggests a role for endocrine factors. Here we provide a report of the effects of thyroid hormone exposure on murine calvaria cells. Murine derived calvaria cells were exposed to critical doses of pharmaceutical thyroxine and analyzed after 3 and 7 days of treatment. Endpoint assays were designed to determine the effects of the hormone exposure on markers of osteogenesis and included, proliferation assay, quantitative ALP activity assay, targeted qPCR for mRNA expression of Runx2, Alp, Ocn, and Twist1, genechip array for 28,853 targets, and targeted osteogenic microarray with qPCR confirmations. Exposure to thyroxine stimulated the cells to express ALP in a dose dependent manner. There were no patterns of difference observed for proliferation. Targeted RNA expression data confirmed expression increases for Alp and Ocn at 7 days in culture. The genechip array suggests substantive expression differences for 46 gene targets and the targeted osteogenesis microarray indicated 23 targets with substantive differences. 11 gene targets were chosen for qPCR confirmation because of their known association with bone or craniosynostosis (Col2a1, Dmp1, Fgf1, 2, Igf1, Mmp9, Phex, Tnf, Htra1, Por, and Dcn). We confirmed substantive increases in mRNA for Phex, FGF1, 2, Tnf, Dmp1, Htra1, Por, Igf1 and Mmp9, and substantive decreases for Dcn. It appears thyroid hormone may exert its effects through increasing osteogenesis. Targets isolated suggest a possible interaction for those gene products associated with calvarial suture growth and homeostasis as well as craniosynostosis. © 2013 Cray et al

Motor coordination problems in children and adolescents with ADHD rated by parents and teachers: effects of age and gender

Summary. Objective. ADHD is frequently accompanied by motor coordination problems. However, the co-occurrence of poor motor performance has received less attention in research than other coexisting problems in ADHD. The underlying mechanisms of this association remain unclear. Therefore, we investigated the prevalence of motor coordination problems in a large sample of children with ADHD, and the relationship between motor coordination problems and inattentive and hyperactive/impulsive symptoms. Furthermore, we assessed whether the association between ADHD and motor coordination problems was comparable across ages and was similar for both genders. Method. We investigated 486 children with ADHD and 269 normal controls. Motor coordination problems were rated by parents (Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire) and teachers (Groningen Motor Observation Scale). Results. Parents and teachers reported motor coordination problems in about one third of children with ADHD. Problems of fine and gross motor skills, coordination skills and motor control were all related to inattentive rather than hyperactive/impulsive symptoms. Relative to controls, motor coordination problems in ADHD were still present in teenagers according to parents; the prevalence diminished somewhat according to teachers. Boys and girls with ADHD were comparably affected, but motor performance in controls was better in girls than in boys. Conclusions. Motor coordination problems were reported in one third of children with ADHD and affected both boys and girls. These problems were also apparent in adolescents with ADHD. Clinicians treating children with ADHD should pay attention to co-occurring motor coordination problems because of the high prevalence and the negative impact of motor coordination problems on daily life

Overweight across the life course and adipokines, inflammatory and endothelial markers at age 60-64 years: evidence from the 1946 birth cohort.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is growing evidence that early development of obesity increases cardiovascular risk later in life, but less is known about whether there are effects of long-term excess body weight on the biological drivers associated with the atherosclerotic pathway, particularly adipokines, inflammatory and endothelial markers. This paper therefore investigates the influence of overweight across the life course on levels of these markers at retirement age. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (n=1784) were used to examine the associations between overweight status at 2, 4, 6, 7, 11, 15, 20, 26, 36, 43, 53 and 60-64 years (body mass index (BMI)⩾25 kg m(-2) for adult ages and gender-specific cut-points for childhood ages equivalent to BMI⩾25 kg m(-2)) and measurements of adipokines (leptin and adiponectin), inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6)) and endothelial markers (E-selectin, tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and von Willebrand factor) at 60-64 years. In addition, the fit of different life course models (sensitive periods/accumulation) were compared using partial F-tests. RESULTS: In age- and sex-adjusted models, overweight at 11 years and onwards was associated with higher leptin, CRP and IL-6 and lower adiponectin; overweight at 15 years and onwards was associated with higher E-selectin and t-PA. Associations between overweight at all ages earlier than 60-64 with leptin, adiponectin, CRP and IL-6 were reduced but remained apparent after adjustment for overweight at 60-64 years; whereas those with E-selectin and t-PA were entirely explained. An accumulation model best described the associations between overweight across the life course with adipokines and inflammatory markers, whereas for the endothelial markers, the sensitive period model for 60-64 years provided a slightly better fit than the accumulation model. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight across the life course has a cumulative influence on adipokines, inflammatory and possibly endothelial markers. Avoidance of overweight from adolescence onwards is likely important for cardiovascular disease prevention

Millennial changes in North American wildfire and soil activity over the last glacial cycle

Climate changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle were dominated by the slow waxing and waning of the North American ice sheet as well as by intermittent Dansgaard-­‐Oeschger (DO) events. However prior to the last deglaciation, little is known about the response of North American vegetation to such rapid climate changes and especially about the response of biomass burning, an important factor for regional changes in radiative forcing. Here we use continuous, high-­‐resolution ammonium (NH4+) records derived from the NGRIP and GRIP ice cores to document both North American NH4+ background emissions from soils and wildfire frequency over the last 110,000 yr. Soil emissions increased on orbital timescales with warmer climate, related to the northward expansion of vegetation due to reduced ice-­‐covered areas. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 DO warm events, a higher fire recurrence rate is recorded, while NH4+ soil emissions rose only slowly during longer interstadial warm periods, in line with slow ice sheet shrinkage and delayed ecosystem changes. Our results indicate that sudden warming events had little impact on NH4+ soil emissions and NH4+ aerosol transport to Greenland during the glacial but triggered a significant increase in the frequency of fire occurrence.This paper has greatly benefitted from the Sir Nicholas Shackleton fellowship, Clare Hall, University of Cambridge, U.K., awarded to HF in 2014. The Division for Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern acknowledges the long-­‐term financial support of ice core research by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research. EW is supported by a Royal Society professorship. NGRIP is directed and organized by the Department of Geophysics at the Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy, Physics and Geophysics, University of Copenhagen. It is supported by funding agencies in Denmark (SNF), Belgium (FNRS-­‐CFB), France (IPEV and INSU/CNRS), Germany (AWI), Iceland (RannIs), Japan (MEXT), Sweden (SPRS), Switzerland (SNSF) and the USA (NSF, Office of Polar Programs).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo249

Decomposition techniques with mixed integer programming and heuristics for home healthcare planning

We tackle home healthcare planning scenarios in the UK using decomposition methods that incorporate mixed integer programming solvers and heuristics. Home healthcare planning is a difficult problem that integrates aspects from scheduling and routing. Solving real-world size instances of these problems still presents a significant challenge to modern exact optimization solvers. Nevertheless, we propose decomposition techniques to harness the power of such solvers while still offering a practical approach to produce high-quality solutions to real-world problem instances. We first decompose the problem into several smaller sub-problems. Next, mixed integer programming and/or heuristics are used to tackle the sub-problems. Finally, the sub-problem solutions are combined into a single valid solution for the whole problem. The different decomposition methods differ in the way in which subproblems are generated and the way in which conflicting assignments are tackled (i.e. avoided or repaired). We present the results obtained by the proposed decomposition methods and compare them to solutions obtained with other methods. In addition, we conduct a study that reveals how the different steps in the proposed method contribute to those results. The main contribution of this paper is a better understanding of effective ways to combine mixed integer programming within effective decomposition methods to solve real-world instances of home healthcare planning problems in practical computation time

The activation of eco-driving mental models: can text messages prime drivers to use their existing knowledge and skills?

Eco-driving campaigns have traditionally assumed that drivers lack the necessary knowledge and skills and that this is something that needs rectifying. Therefore, many support systems have been designed to closely guide drivers and fine-tune their proficiency. However, research suggests that drivers already possess a substantial amount of the necessary knowledge and skills regarding eco-driving. In previous studies, participants used these effectively when they were explicitly asked to drive fuel-efficiently. In contrast, they used their safe driving skills when they were instructed to drive as they would normally. Hence, it is assumed that many drivers choose not to engage purposefully in eco-driving in their everyday lives. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of simple, periodic text messages (nine messages in 2 weeks) on drivers’ eco- and safe driving performance. It was hypothesised that provision of eco-driving primes and advice would encourage the activation of their eco-driving mental models and that comparable safety primes increase driving safety. For this purpose, a driving simulator experiment was conducted. All participants performed a pre-test drive and were then randomly divided into four groups, which received different interventions. For a period of 2 weeks, one group received text messages with eco-driving primes and another group received safety primes. A third group received advice messages on how to eco-drive. The fourth group were instructed by the experimenter to drive fuel-efficiently, immediately before driving, with no text message intervention. A post-test drive measured behavioural changes in scenarios deemed relevant to eco- and safe driving. The results suggest that the eco-driving prime and advice text messages did not have the desired effect. In comparison, asking drivers to drive fuel-efficiently led to eco-driving behaviours. These outcomes demonstrate the difficulty in changing ingrained habits. Future research is needed to strengthen such messages or activate existing knowledge and skills in other ways, so driver behaviour can be changed in cost-efficient ways

Elevated risk of stillbirth in males: systematic review and meta-analysis of more than 30 million births

Background Stillbirth rates have changed little over the last decade, and a high proportion of cases are unexplained. This meta-analysis examined whether there are inequalities in stillbirth risks according to sex. Methods A systematic review of the literature was conducted, and data were obtained on more than 30 million birth outcomes reported in observational studies. The pooled relative risk of stillbirth was estimated using random-effects models. Results The crude mean rate (stillbirths/1,000 total births) was 6.23 for males and 5.74 for females. The pooled relative risk was 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.13). The attributable fraction in the whole population was 4.2% (95% CI: 3.70-4.63), and the attributable fraction among male fetuses was 7.8% (95% CI: 7.0-8.66). Study populations from countries with known sex-biased sex selection issues had anomalous stillbirth sex ratios and higher overall stillbirth risks than other countries, reflecting increased mortality among females. Conclusions Risk of stillbirth in males is elevated by about 10%. The population-attributable risk is comparable to smoking and equates to approximately 100,000 stillbirths per year globally. The pattern is consistent across countries of varying incomes. Given current difficulties in reducing stillbirth rates, work to understand the causes of excess male risk is warranted. We recommend that stillbirths are routinely recorded by sex. This will also assist in exposing prenatal sex selection as elevated or equal risks of stillbirth in females would be readily apparent and could therefore be used to trigger investigation