Effects of Toxic Fescue Exposure on Vaginal Microbial Communities of Crossbred Beef Cows

The consumption of toxic fescue by beef cattle results in several adverse physiological effects such as reduced reproductive success, severe vasoconstriction resulting in hoof sloughing, low body condition scores, hyperthermia, decreased prolactin levels, and reduced hair shedding. The purpose of this study is to characterize bacterial community of the reproductive tract as a potential predictor for toxin exposure. One-hundred fall-calving crossbred cows were allocated to graze Toxic (Toxic: n=50) or Novel (Novel: n= 50) fescue pastures for five months (March-August). Treatments were blocked by sire breed (Charolais or Hereford) and by parity (first, second, third). Animals rotated pastures biweekly and pastures were monitored monthly for ergovaline concentration. Twenty-five animals allocated to Novel treatment were exposed to a toxic pasture two weeks each month in rotation with two weeks exposure to novel pasture. This group was defined as an alternating treatment condition (Alt: n=25). Rectal temperatures, hair score, body condition score, and body weight were collected each month as verification of fescue toxicosis in each animal. In August, the reproductive tract was swabbed using a Morgan swab at the vaginal-fornix junction for 16s rRNA-based microbiota analysis. The V4 region was amplified and sequenced using the Illumina Miseq platform. Data was processed using Mothur v.1.39.5. Significant difference in bovine vaginal bacterial community structure was observed between Toxic and Novel treatments based on Bray-Curtis distance (ANOSIM, R= 0.429223, P\u3c .001). Similarly, the bacterial communities of Toxic pasture also differed significantly from those of the Alt pasture (ANOSIM, R= 0.445697, P\u3c 0.001); however, Novel and Alt treatments did not differ (R = -0.0077, P =.536). Charolais exhibited greater (p= 0.0427) Shannon diversity than Herefords, and diversity increased with parity number with no difference (p=0.7312) observed between parities one and two. Smith-Wilson evenness was greater (p=0.0008) for Novel animals than Toxic animals. The suppression of Pseudomonas was the best indicator of toxin exposure. Novel animals hosted 16.5 times more (p=0.0057) Pseudomonas than toxic animals. Ureaplasma was the second most abundant OTU and 2nd most predictive of pasture type. Novel animals hosted 3.8 times more (p=0.0004) than novel animals. Burkholderia was the most abundant OTU and the third most predictive of treatment. Burkholderia represented 41.74% of the bacterial community in the Toxic treatment reproductive tracts and 14.67% in Novel animals

Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate

Price distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.

Predictability of stock market indexes following large drawdowns and drawups

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most popular subjects in the empirical finance literature. Previous studies of the stock markets, which are mostly based on fixed-time price variations, have inconclusive findings: evidence of short-term predictability varies according to different samples and methodologies. We propose a novel approach and use drawdowns and drawups as triggers, to investigate the existence of short-term abnormal returns in the stock markets. As these measures are not computed within a fixed time horizon, they are flexible enough to capture subordinate, time-dependent processes that could drive market under- or overreaction. Most estimates in our results support the efficient market hypothesis. The underreaction hypothesis receives stronger support than does overreaction, with higher prevalence of return continuations than reversals. Evidence for the uncertain information hypothesis is present in some markets, mainly after lower-magnitude events

Construction and Deconstruction of a Homicide Reduction Policy: The Case of Pact for Life in Pernambuco, Brazil

This paper tries to demonstrate that both the fall in homicides in Pernambuco (from 2007-2013) and the resurgence in them that followed (2014-2017) are fundamentally linked to two explanatory variables, which are in turn connected: the model of governance of public security produced in Pernambuco at the level of state government strategy and the capacity for deterrence produced in the framework of the Criminal Justice System (especially that of state police, who are under the responsibility and "control" of the executive power of the state). This article argues that the construction of this specific model of governance of Public Security and the definition, monitoring and realization of deterrence strategies within the police were crucial to the reduction of the number of homicides in the most violent areas of the state. On the other hand, the dissolution of the capacity for integrated governance of the police, with the consequent dismantling of the deterrence capacity aimed primarily at the reduction of homicides and crimes against life that had been successfully conceived and realized between 2007 and 2013, explains the increase in intentional violent crimes that has been observed since 2014