Outlier Detection and Missing Value Estimation in Time Series Traffic Count Data: Final Report of SERC Project GR/G23180.

A serious problem in analysing traffic count data is what to do when missing or extreme values occur, perhaps as a result of a breakdown in automatic counting equipment. The objectives of this current work were to attempt to look at ways of solving this problem by: 1)establishing the applicability of time series and influence function techniques for estimating missing values and detecting outliers in time series traffic data; 2)making a comparative assessment of new techniques with those used by traffic engineers in practice for local, regional or national traffic count systems Two alternative approaches were identified as being potentially useful and these were evaluated and compared with methods currently employed for `cleaning' traffic count series. These were based on evaluating the effect of individual or groups of observations on the estimate of the auto-correlation structure and events influencing a parametric model (ARIMA). These were compared with the existing methods which included visual inspection and smoothing techniques such as the exponentially weighted moving average in which means and variances are updated using observations from the same time and day of week. The results showed advantages and disadvantages for each of the methods. The exponentially weighted moving average method tended to detect unreasonable outliers and also suggested replacements which were consistently larger than could reasonably be expected. Methods based on the autocorrelation structure were reasonably successful in detecting events but the replacement values were suspect particularly when there were groups of values needing replacement. The methods also had problems in the presence of non-stationarity, often detecting outliers which were really a result of the changing level of the data rather than extreme values. In the presence of other events, such as a change in level or seasonality, both the influence function and change in autocorrelation present problems of interpretation since there is no way of distinguishing these events from outliers. It is clear that the outlier problem cannot be separated from that of identifying structural changes as many of the statistics used to identify outliers also respond to structural changes. The ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)7 was found to describe the vast majority of traffic count series which means that the problem of identifying a starting model can largely be avoided with a high degree of assurance. Unfortunately it is clear that a black-box approach to data validation is prone to error but methods such as those described above lend themselves to an interactive graphics data-validation technique in which outliers and other events are highlighted requiring acceptance or otherwise manually. An adaptive approach to fitting the model may result in something which can be more automatic and this would allow for changes in the underlying model to be accommodated. In conclusion it was found that methods based on the autocorrelation structure are the most computationally efficient but lead to problems of interpretation both between different types of event and in the presence of non-stationarity. Using the residuals from a fitted ARIMA model is the most successful method at finding outliers and distinguishing them from other events, being less expensive than case deletion. The replacement values derived from the ARIMA model were found to be the most accurate

Assessing functional novelty of PSI structures via structure-function analysis of large and diverse superfamilies

The structural genomics initiatives have had as one of their aims to improve our understanding of protein function by providing representative structures for many structurally uncharacterised protein families. As suggested by the recent assessment of the Protein Structure Initiative (Structural Genomics Initiative, funded by the NIH), doubts have arisen as to whether Structural Genomics as initially planned were really beneficial to our understanding of biological issues, and in particular of protein function.
A few protein domain superfamilies have been shown to account for unexpectedly large numbers of proteins encoded in fully sequenced genomes. These large superfamilies are generally very diverse, spanning a wide range of functions, both in terms of molecular activities and biological processes. Some of these superfamilies, such as the Rossmann-fold P-loop nucleotide hydrolases or the TIM-barrel glycosidases, have been the subject of extensive structural studies which in turn have shed light on how evolution of the sequence and structure properties produce functional diversity amongst homologues. Recently, the Structure-Function Linkage Database (SFLD) has been setup with the aim of helping the study of structure-function correlations in such superfamilies. Since the evolutionary success of these large superfamilies suggests biological importance, several Structural Genomics Centers have focused on providing full structural coverage for representatives of all sequence families in these superfamilies.
In this work we evaluate structure/function diversity in a set of these large superfamilies and attempt to assess the quality and quantity of biological information gained from Structural Genomics.
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DISCUSSION OF THE EFFECTS OF RECESSION ON THE RURAL-FARM ECONOMY

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Reproducing gendered violence through discourse: a comment on LSE Student Union’s newspaper, the Beaver

Katrin Redfern is in the Gender, Policy and Inequalities MSc program at LSE and has written on gender issues for The Phnom Penh Post, The Daily Beast, and The Indypendent. She holds an MA in Philosophy and Literature from the University of Sussex. In this post she discusses the potential danger of the discourse in the recent article “Houghton Street Headaches” in the Beaver

Quantization Noise Shaping for Information Maximizing ADCs

ADCs sit at the interface of the analog and digital worlds and fundamentally determine what information is available in the digital domain for processing. This paper shows that a configurable ADC can be designed for signals with non constant information as a function of frequency such that within a fixed power budget the ADC maximizes the information in the converted signal by frequency shaping the quantization noise. Quantization noise shaping can be realized via loop filter design for a single channel delta sigma ADC and extended to common time and frequency interleaved multi channel structures. Results are presented for example wireline and wireless style channels.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

An investigation of the Eigenvalue Calibration Method (ECM) using GASP for non-imaging and imaging detectors

Polarised light from astronomical targets can yield a wealth of information about their source radiation mechanisms, and about the geometry of the scattered light regions. Optical observations, of both the linear and circular polarisation components, have been impeded due to non-optimised instrumentation. The need for suitable observing conditions and the availability of luminous targets are also limiting factors. GASP uses division of amplitude polarimeter (DOAP) (Compain and Drevillon) to measure the four components of the Stokes vector simultaneously, which eliminates the constraints placed upon the need for moving parts during observation, and offers a real-time complete measurement of polarisation. Results from the GASP calibration are presented in this work for both a 1D detector system, and a pixel-by-pixel analysis on a 2D detector system. Following Compain et al. we use the Eigenvalue Calibration Method (ECM) to measure the polarimetric limitations of the instrument for each of the two systems. Consequently, the ECM is able to compensate for systematic errors introduced by the calibration optics, and it also accounts for all optical elements of the polarimeter in the output. Initial laboratory results of the ECM are presented, using APD detectors, where errors of 0.2% and 0.1{\deg} were measured for the degree of linear polarisation and polarisation angle respectively. Channel-to-channel image registration is an important aspect of 2-D polarimetry. We present our calibration results of the measured Mueller matrix of each sample, used by the ECM. A set of Zenith flat-field images were recorded during an observing campaign at the Palomar 200 inch telescope in November 2012. From these we show the polarimetric errors from the spatial polarimetry indicating both the stability and absolute accuracy of GASP.Comment: Accepted for publication in Experimental Astronom

Communicating You Are Worth It in a Noisy Marketplace

This paper provides guidance and specific examples of common elements needed for communicating the value proposition of liberal arts colleges to prospective students and families. In an environment where the worth of a college degree is questioned daily by the public and the mainstream media, this paper demonstrates how strategies that are distinctive, rooted in research and complementary to the institutional brand are imperative for communicating the worth of an institution. The paper suggests tactics to develop the key partnerships needed and provides metrics for how leaders can assess their value proposition initiatives

Vegetation analysis in the Laramie Basin, Wyoming from ERTS-1 imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. The application of ERTS-1 imagery to vegetation mapping and identification was tested and confirmed by field checking. ERTS-1 imagery interpretation and density contour mapping allows definition of minute vegetation features and estimation of vegetative biomass and species composition. Large- and small-scale vegetation maps were constructed for test areas in the Laramie Basin and Laramie mountains of Wyoming. Vegetative features reflecting grazing intensity, moisture availability, changes within the growing season, cutting of hay crops, and plant community constituents in forest and grassland are discussed and illustrated. Theoretical considerations of scattering, sun angle, slope, and instrument aperture upon image and map resolution were investigated. Future suggestions for applications of ERTS-1 data to vegetative analysis are included

Expression Dependence in the Perception of Facial Identity

We recognise familiar faces irrespective of their expression. This ability, crucial for social interactions, is a fundamental feature of face perception. We ask whether this constancy of facial identity may be compromised by changes in expression. This, in turn, addresses the issue of whether facial identity and expression are processed separately or interact. Using an identification task, participants learned the identities of two actors from naturalistic (so-called ambient) face images taken from movies. Training was either with neutral images or their expressive counterparts, perceived expressiveness having been determined experimentally. Expressive training responses were slower and more erroneous than neutral training responses. When tested with novel images of the actors that varied in expressiveness, neutrally trained participants gave slower and less accurate responses to images of high compared with low expressiveness. These findings clearly demonstrate that facial expressions impede the processing and learning of facial identity. Because this expression dependence is consistent with a late bifurcation model of face processing, in which changeable facial aspects and identity are coded in a common framework, it suggests that expressions are a part of facial identity representation. </jats:p

The role of individual values and westernisation on the Guanxi orientation of Hong Kong managers

Guanxi, or social connections, has received increasing attention in the literature as the Western world grapples with the complexity of doing business with China. But is guanxi a good or a bad thing? Networking and connections are seen as a business necessity, but on the other hand guanxi is often associated with corruption and calculative means of doing business. This study examines different dimensions of guanxi and their relationship to traditional vs modern value orientations. The study finds guanxi comprises two dimensions, one representing traditional Chinese values of reciprocity and face and the other a more modern networking style not dissimilar to that emphasised in the West. Relationships between dimensions of guanxi orientation and individual values and Westernisation are reported