Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models

Faint dwarfs as a test of DM models: WDM versus CDM

We use high-resolution Hydro+N-Body cosmological simulations to compare the assembly and evolution of a small field dwarf (stellar mass ∼106−7M⊙, total mass 1010M⊙) in Λ-dominated cold dark matter (CDM) and 2keV warm dark matter (WDM) cosmologies. We find that star formation (SF) in the WDM model is reduced and delayed by 1-2Gyr relative to the CDM model, independently of the details of SF and feedback. Independent of the dark matter (DM) model, but proportionally to the SF efficiency, gas outflows lower the central mass density through ‘dynamical heating', such that all realizations have circular velocities <20 km s−1 at 500pc, in agreement with local kinematic constraints. As a result of dynamical heating, older stars are less centrally concentrated than younger stars, similar to stellar population gradients observed in nearby dwarf galaxies. Introducing an important diagnostic of SF and feedback models, we translate our simulations into artificial colour-magnitude diagrams and star formation histories (SFHs) in order to directly compare to available observations. The simulated galaxies formed most of their stars in many ∼10Myr long bursts. The CDM galaxy has a global SFH, H i abundance and Fe/H and alpha-elements distribution well matched to current observations of dwarf galaxies. These results highlight the importance of directly including ‘baryon physics' in simulations when (1) comparing predictions of galaxy formation models with the kinematics and number density of local dwarf galaxies and (2) differentiating between CDM and non-standard models with different DM or power spectr

The Observed and Predicted Spatial Distribution of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We review evidence that the census of Milky Way satellites similar to those known may be incomplete at low latitude due to obscuration and in the outer halo due to a decreasing sensitivity to dwarf satellites with distance. We evaluate the possible impact that incompleteness has on comparisons with substructure models by estimating corrections to the known number of dwarfs using empirical and theoretical models. If we assume that the true distribution of Milky Way satellites is uniform with latitude, then we estimate a 33% incompleteness in the total number of dwarfs due to obscuration at low latitude. Similarly, if we suppose that the radial distribution of Milky Way satellites matches that of M31, or that of the oldest sub-halos or the most massive sub-halos in a simulation, we estimate a total number of Milky Way dwarfs ranging from 1 -- 3 times the known population. Although the true level of incompleteness is quite uncertain, the fact that our extrapolations yield average total numbers of MW dwarfs that are realistically 1.5 -- 2 times the known population, shows that incompleteness needs to be taken seriously when comparing to models of dwarf galaxy formation. Interestingly, the radial distribution of the oldest sub-halos in a Lambda+CDM simulation of a Milky Way-like galaxy possess a close match to the observed distribution of M31's satellites, which suggests that reionization may be an important factor controlling the observability of sub-halos. We also assess the prospects for a new SDSS search for Milky Way satellites to constrain the possible incompleteness in the outer halo.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures. Replaced with MNRAS accepted versio

A Hot Saturn Near (but Unassociated with) the Open Cluster NGC 1817

We report on the discovery of a hot Saturn-sized planet (9.916 ± 0.985 R ⊕) around a late F-star, K2-308, observed in Campaign 13 of the K2 mission. We began studying this planet candidate because prior to the release of Gaia DR2, the host star was thought to have been a member (⩾90% membership probability) of the ≈1 Gyr open cluster NGC 1817 based on its kinematics and photometric distance. We identify the host star (among three stars within the K2 photometric aperture) using seeing-limited photometry and rule out false-positive scenarios using adaptive optics imaging and radial velocity observations. We statistically validate K2-308b by calculating a false-positive probability rate of 0.01%. However, we also show using new kinematic measurements provided by Gaia DR2 and our measured radial velocity of the system that K2-308 is unassociated with the cluster NGC 1817. Therefore, the long running search for a giant transiting planet in an open cluster remains fruitless. Finally, we note that our use of seeing-limited photometry is a good demonstration of similar techniques that are already being used to follow up Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) planet candidates, especially in crowded regions

Dirac and Weyl Equations on a Lattice as Quantum Cellular Automata

A discretized time evolution of the wave function for a Dirac particle on a cubic lattice is represented by a very simple quantum cellular automaton. In each evolution step the updated value of the wave function at a given site depends only on the values at the nearest sites, the evolution is unitary and preserves chiral symmetry. Moreover, it is shown that the relationship between Dirac particles and cellular automata operating on two component objects on a lattice is indeed very close. Every local and unitary automaton on a cubic lattice, under some natural assumptions, leads in the continuum limit to the Weyl equation. The sum over histories is evaluated and its connection with path integrals and theories of fermions on a lattice is outlined.Comment: 6, RevTe

A place-based approach to payments for ecosystem services

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes are proliferating but are challenged by insufficient attention to spatial and temporal inter-dependencies, interactions between different ecosystems and their services, and the need for multi-level governance. To address these challenges, this paper develops a place-based approach to the development and implementation of PES schemes that incorporates multi-level governance, bundling or layering of services across multiple scales, and shared values for ecosystem services. The approach is evaluated and illustrated using case study research to develop an explicitly place-based PES scheme, the Peatland Code, owned and managed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s UK Peatland Programme and designed to pay for restoration of peatland habitats. Buyers preferred bundled schemes with premium pricing of a primary service, contrasting with sellers’ preferences for quantifying and marketing services separately in a layered scheme. There was limited awareness among key business sectors of dependencies on ecosystem services, or the risks and opportunities arising from their management. Companies with financial links to peatlands or a strong environmental sustainability focus were interested in the scheme, particularly in relation to climate regulation, water quality, biodiversity and flood risk mitigation benefits. Visitors were most interested in donating to projects that benefited wildlife and were willing to donate around £2 on-site during a visit. Sellers agreed a deliberated fair price per tonne of CO2 equivalent from £11.18 to £15.65 across four sites in Scotland, with this range primarily driven by spatial variation in habitat degradation. In the Peak District, perceived declines in sheep and grouse productivity arising from ditch blocking led to substantially higher prices, but in other regions ditch blocking was viewed more positively. The Peatland Code was developed in close collaboration with stakeholders at catchment, landscape and national scales, enabling multi-level governance of the management and delivery of ecosystem services across these scales. Place-based PES schemes can mitigate negative trade-offs between ecosystem services, more effectively include cultural ecosystem services and engage with and empower diverse stakeholders in scheme design and governance

The KELT Follow-Up Network And Transit False-Positive Catalog: Pre-Vetted False Positives For TESS

The Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope (KELT) project has been conducting a photometric survey of transiting planets orbiting bright stars for over 10 years. The KELT images have a pixel scale of ~23\u27\u27 pixel⁻¹—very similar to that of NASA\u27s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)—as well as a large point-spread function, and the KELT reduction pipeline uses a weighted photometric aperture with radius 3\u27. At this angular scale, multiple stars are typically blended in the photometric apertures. In order to identify false positives and confirm transiting exoplanets, we have assembled a follow-up network (KELT-FUN) to conduct imaging with spatial resolution, cadence, and photometric precision higher than the KELT telescopes, as well as spectroscopic observations of the candidate host stars. The KELT-FUN team has followed-up over 1600 planet candidates since 2011, resulting in more than 20 planet discoveries. Excluding ~450 false alarms of non-astrophysical origin (i.e., instrumental noise or systematics), we present an all-sky catalog of the 1128 bright stars (6 \u3c V \u3c 13) that show transit-like features in the KELT light curves, but which were subsequently determined to be astrophysical false positives (FPs) after photometric and/or spectroscopic follow-up observations. The KELT-FUN team continues to pursue KELT and other planet candidates and will eventually follow up certain classes of TESS candidates. The KELT FP catalog will help minimize the duplication of follow-up observations by current and future transit surveys such as TESS

Factor structure and construct validity of the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for Carers (ASCOT-Carer)

Background: The ASCOT-Carer is a self-report instrument designed to measure social care-related quality of life (SCRQoL). This article presents the psychometric testing and validation of the ASCOT-Carer four response-level interview (INT4) in a sample of unpaid carers of adults who receive publicly-funded social care services in England. Methods: Unpaid carers were identified through a survey of users of publicly-funded social care services in England. 387 carers completed a face-to-face or telephone interview. Data on variables hypothesised to be related to SCRQoL (for example, characteristics of the carer, cared-for person and care situation) and measures of carer experience, strain, health-related quality of life and overall QoL were collected. Relationships between these variables and overall SCRQoL score were evaluated through correlation, ANOVA and regression analysis to test the construct validity of the scale. Internal reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and feasibility by the number of missing responses. Results: The construct validity was supported by statistically significant relationships between SCRQoL and scores on instruments of related constructs, as well as with characteristics of the carer and care recipient in univariate and multivariate analyses. A Cronbach’s alpha of 0.87 (7 items) indicates that the internal reliability of the instrument is satisfactory and a low number of missing responses (<1%) indicates a high level of acceptance. Conclusions: The results provide evidence to support the construct validity, factor structure, internal reliability and feasibility of the ASCOT-Carer INT4 as an instrument for measuring social care-related quality of life of unpaid carers who care for adults with a variety of long-term conditions, disability or problems related to old age