Boltzmann brains and the scale-factor cutoff measure of the multiverse

To make predictions for an eternally inflating "multiverse", one must adopt a procedure for regulating its divergent spacetime volume. Recently, a new test of such spacetime measures has emerged: normal observers - who evolve in pocket universes cooling from hot big bang conditions - must not be vastly outnumbered by "Boltzmann brains" - freak observers that pop in and out of existence as a result of rare quantum fluctuations. If the Boltzmann brains prevail, then a randomly chosen observer would be overwhelmingly likely to be surrounded by an empty world, where all but vacuum energy has redshifted away, rather than the rich structure that we observe. Using the scale-factor cutoff measure, we calculate the ratio of Boltzmann brains to normal observers. We find the ratio to be finite, and give an expression for it in terms of Boltzmann brain nucleation rates and vacuum decay rates. We discuss the conditions that these rates must obey for the ratio to be acceptable, and we discuss estimates of the rates under a variety of assumptions.Comment: 32 pp, 2 figs. Modified to conform to the version accepted by Phys. Rev. D. The last paragraph of Sec. V-A, about Boltzmann brains in Minkowski space, has been significantly enlarged. Two sentences were added to the introduction concerning the classical approximation and the hope of finding a motivating principle for the measure. Several references were adde

Quality of medication use in primary care - mapping the problem, working to a solution: a systematic review of the literature

Background: The UK, USA and the World Health Organization have identified improved patient safety in healthcare as a priority. Medication error has been identified as one of the most frequent forms of medical error and is associated with significant medical harm. Errors are the result of the systems that produce them. In industrial settings, a range of systematic techniques have been designed to reduce error and waste. The first stage of these processes is to map out the whole system and its reliability at each stage. However, to date, studies of medication error and solutions have concentrated on individual parts of the whole system. In this paper we wished to conduct a systematic review of the literature, in order to map out the medication system with its associated errors and failures in quality, to assess the strength of the evidence and to use approaches from quality management to identify ways in which the system could be made safer. Methods: We mapped out the medicines management system in primary care in the UK. We conducted a systematic literature review in order to refine our map of the system and to establish the quality of the research and reliability of the system. Results: The map demonstrated that the proportion of errors in the management system for medicines in primary care is very high. Several stages of the process had error rates of 50% or more: repeat prescribing reviews, interface prescribing and communication and patient adherence. When including the efficacy of the medicine in the system, the available evidence suggested that only between 4% and 21% of patients achieved the optimum benefit from their medication. Whilst there were some limitations in the evidence base, including the error rate measurement and the sampling strategies employed, there was sufficient information to indicate the ways in which the system could be improved, using management approaches. The first step to improving the overall quality would be routine monitoring of adherence, clinical effectiveness and hospital admissions. Conclusion: By adopting the whole system approach from a management perspective we have found where failures in quality occur in medication use in primary care in the UK, and where weaknesses occur in the associated evidence base. Quality management approaches have allowed us to develop a coherent change and research agenda in order to tackle these, so far, fairly intractable problems

The Astropy Problem

The Astropy Project (http://astropy.org) is, in its own words, "a community effort to develop a single core package for Astronomy in Python and foster interoperability between Python astronomy packages." For five years this project has been managed, written, and operated as a grassroots, self-organized, almost entirely volunteer effort while the software is used by the majority of the astronomical community. Despite this, the project has always been and remains to this day effectively unfunded. Further, contributors receive little or no formal recognition for creating and supporting what is now critical software. This paper explores the problem in detail, outlines possible solutions to correct this, and presents a few suggestions on how to address the sustainability of general purpose astronomical software

Rheumatoid arthritis - treatment: 180. Utility of Body Weight Classified Low-Dose Leflunomide in Japanese Rheumatoid Arthritis

Background: In Japan, more than 20 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients died of interstitial pneumonia (IP) caused by leflunomide (LEF) were reported, but many of them were considered as the victims of opportunistic infection currently. In this paper, efficacy and safety of low-dose LEF classified by body weight (BW) were studied. Methods: Fifty-nine RA patients were started to administrate LEF from July 2007 to July 2009. Among them, 25 patients were excluded because of the combination with tacrolimus, and medication modification within 3 months before LEF. Remaining 34 RA patients administered 20 to 50 mg/week of LEF were followed up for 1 year and enrolled in this study. Dose of LEF was classified by BW (50 mg/week for over 50 kg, 40 mg/week for 40 to 50 kg and 20 to 30 mg/week for under 40 kg). The average age and RA duration of enrolled patients were 55.5 years old and 10.2 years. Prednisolone (PSL), methotrexate (MTX) and etanercept were used in 23, 28 and 2 patients, respectively. In case of insufficient response or adverse effect, dosage change or discontinuance of LEF were considered. Failure was defined as dosages up of PSL and MTX, or dosages down or discontinuance of LEF. Last observation carried forward method was used for the evaluation of failed patients at 1 year. Results: At 1 year after LEF start, good/ moderate/ no response assessed by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria using Disease Activity Score, including a 28-joint count (DAS28)-C reactive protein (CRP) were showed in 14/ 10/ 10 patients, respectively. The dosage changes of LEF at 1 year were dosage up: 10, same dosage: 5, dosage down: 8 and discontinuance: 11 patients. The survival rate of patients in this study was 23.5% (24 patients failed) but actual LEF continuous rate was 67.6% (11 patients discontinued) at 1 year. The major reason of failure was liver dysfunction, and pneumocystis pneumonia was occurred in 1 patient resulted in full recovery. One patient died of sepsis caused by decubitus ulcer infection. DAS28-CRP score was decreased from 3.9 to 2.7 significantly. Although CRP was decreased from 1.50 to 0.93 mg/dl, it wasn't significant. Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-3 was decreased from 220.0 to 174.2 ng/ml significantly. Glutamate pyruvate transaminase (GPT) was increased from 19 to 35 U/l and number of leukocyte was decreased from 7832 to 6271 significantly. DAS28-CRP, CRP, and MMP-3 were improved significantly with MTX, although they weren't without MTX. Increase of GPT and leukopenia were seen significantly with MTX, although they weren't without MTX. Conclusions: It was reported that the risks of IP caused by LEF in Japanese RA patients were past IP history, loading dose administration and low BW. Addition of low-dose LEF is a potent safe alternative for the patients showing unsatisfactory response to current medicines, but need to pay attention for liver function and infection caused by leukopenia, especially with MTX. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Experiences, acceptability and feasibility of an isometric exercise intervention for stage 1 hypertension: embedded qualitative study in a randomised controlled feasibility trial.

Background Healthy lifestyle changes for patients with stage 1 hypertension are recommended before antihypertensive medication. Exercise has antihypertensive benefits; however, low adoption and high attrition are common. Patients need easily adoptable, effective and manageable exercise interventions that can be sustained for life. We present participant and stakeholder perceptions of an isometric exercise intervention for stage 1 hypertension delivered in the National Health Service (NHS, UK). Methods An embedded qualitative study within a randomised-controlled feasibility study included intervention arm participants (n = 10), healthcare professionals from participating NHS sites (n = 3) and non-participating NHS sites (n = 5) taking part in semi-structured interviews to explore feasibility of delivering an isometric exercise intervention within the study design and an NHS context. Data was analysed using reflective thematic analysis. Results Three themes were identified: study deliverability; motivators and barriers; support for study participation. Findings indicated that the study was well designed. Health benefits, unwillingness to take medication, altruism and interest in the study helped motivation and adherence. Study support received was good, but healthcare professionals were insecure in intervention delivery with regular training/supervision needed. Perception of health improvement was mixed, but, in some, uptake of wider lifestyle changes resulted from participation. Stakeholders felt that current service challenges/demand would make implementation challenging. Conclusions Despite participant positivity, delivery of an isometric intervention in an NHS setting was considered challenging given the current service demand, although possible with robust effectiveness evidence. Findings support further effectiveness data and implementation development of the isometric exercise intervention. Trial registration ISRCTN, ISRCTN13472393. Registered 18 September 2020

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Spondylarthropathies (including psoriatic arthritis): 244. Validity of Colour Doppler and Spectral Doppler Ultrasound of Sacroilicac Joints Againts Physical Examination as Gold Standard

Background: Sacroiliac joints (SJ) involvement is a distinctive and charasteristic feature of Spondyloarthritis (SpA) and x-ray is the test routinely used to make a diagnosis. However, x-ray reveals late structural damage but cannot detect active inflammation. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of Doppler ultrasound in SJ. Methods: Prospective blinded and controlled study of SJ, in which three populations were compared. We studied 106 consecutive cases, who were divided into three groups: a) 53 patients diagnosed with SpA who had inflammatory lumbar and gluteal pain assessed by a rheumatologist; b) 26 patients diagnosed with SpA who didn't have SJ tenderness and had normal physical examination; c) control group of 27 subjects (healthy subjetcs or with mechanical lumbar pain). All patients included that were diagnosed with SpA met almost the European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) classification criteria. Physical examination of the SJ included: sacral sulcus tenderness, iliac gapping, iliac compression, midline sacral thrust test, Gaenslen's test, and Patrick s test were used as gold standard. Both SJ were examined with Doppler ultrasound (General Electric Logiq 9, Wauwatosa WI, USA) fitted with a 9-14 Mhz lineal probe. The ultrasonographer was blinded to clinical data. Doppler in SJ was assessed as positive when both Doppler colour and resistance index (RI) < 0.75 within the SJ area were present. Statistical analysis was performed estimating sensitivity and specificity against gold standard. The Kappa correlation coefficient was used for reliability study. Results: 106 cases (53 female, 55 male; mean age 36 10 years) were studied. There were no statistical differences between groups related to age or sex. Physical examination of SJ was positive in 38 patients (59 sacroiliac joints). US detected Doppler signal within SJ in 37 patients (58 SJ): 33 of them were symptomatic SpA (52 SJ), one of them were asymptomatic SpA (1 SJ) and one was a healthy control (1 SJ). The accuracy of US when compared to clinical data as gold standard at subject level in the overall group was: sensitivity of 68.6% and specificity of 85.7%, positive predictive value of 70.5% and negative predictive value of 84.5%. A positive likelihood ratio of 4.8, a negative likelihood ratio of 0.36 and a kappa coefficient of 0.55 were achieved. Conclusions: Doppler US of SJ seems to be a valid method to detect active SJ inflammation. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Rheumatoid arthritis - clinical aspects: 134. Predictors of Joint Damage in South Africans with Rheumatoid Arthritis

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) causes progressive joint damage and functional disability. Studies on factors affecting joint damage as clinical outcome are lacking in Africa. The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of joint damage in adult South Africans with established RA. Methods: A cross-sectional study of 100 black patients with RA of >5 years were assessed for joint damage using a validated clinical method, the RA articular damage (RAAD) score. Potential predictors of joint damage that were documented included socio-demographics, smoking, body mass index (BMI), disease duration, delay in disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) initiation, global disease activity as measured by the disease activity score (DAS28), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C reactive protein (CRP), and autoantibody status. The predictive value of variables was assessed by univariate and stepwise multivariate regression analyses. A p value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: The mean (SD) age was 56 (9.8) years, disease duration 17.5 (8.5) years, educational level 7.5 (3.5) years and DMARD lag was 9 (8.8) years. Female to male ratio was 10:1. The mean (SD) DAS28 was 4.9 (1.5) and total RAAD score was 28.3 (12.8). The mean (SD) BMI was 27.2 kg/m2 (6.2) and 93% of patients were rheumatoid factor (RF) positive. More than 90% of patients received between 2 to 3 DMARDs. Significant univariate predictors of a poor RAAD score were increasing age (p = 0.001), lower education level (p = 0.019), longer disease duration (p < 0.001), longer DMARD lag (p = 0.014), lower BMI (p = 0.025), high RF titre (p < 0.001) and high ESR (p = 0.008). The multivariate regression analysis showed that the only independent significant predictors of a higher mean RAAD score were older age at disease onset (p = 0.04), disease duration (p < 0.001) and RF titre (p < 0.001). There was also a negative association between BMI and the mean total RAAD score (p = 0.049). Conclusions: Patients with longstanding established RA have more severe irreversible joint damage as measured by the clinical RAAD score, contrary to other studies in Africa. This is largely reflected by a delay in the initiation of early effective treatment. Independent of disease duration, older age at disease onset and a higher RF titre are strongly associated with more joint damage. The inverse association between BMI and articular damage in RA has been observed in several studies using radiographic damage scores. The mechanisms underlying this paradoxical association are still widely unknown but adipokines have recently been suggested to play a role. Disclosure statement: C.I. has received a research grant from the Connective Tissue Diseases Research Fund, University of the Witwatersrand. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes