Consequences of population change for local abundance and site occupancy of wintering waterbirds

Aim: Population size changes can lead to changes in local abundance and/or site occupancy, depending on the processes influencing site use by individuals. Here we quantify such changes for wintering waterbirds, and assess their implications for widely used conservation strategies in which sites that support in excess of a given proportion of a population are prioritised for protection.  Location: Britain. Methods: We use long-term survey data to quantify changes in population size and distribution for 19 waterbird species across Britain. Results: Population changes in these species have varied greatly (from declines of ~25% to increases of >1600%) over 26 years, and we show that change in local abundance was the predominant consequence of these changes, while colonisation of new sites mainly occurred in response to large population increases. For most species, changes in abundance and occupancy were spatially dependent over relatively short distances, consistent with (but not conclusive of) density-dependent spill-over. Levels of occupancy among species were negatively associated with proportions of sites, and populations within sites, exceeding the 1% of total population threshold for site protection. For species increasing in overall population size, the occurrence of small incipient populations at new sites resulted in declines in the number of sites supporting> 1% of the total population and the proportion of the population supported by these sites.  Main conclusions: Fluctuations in waterbird population size are more likely to result in changes in local abundance than distribution. Consequences of population change for site protection when abundance thresholds are used for site designation depend on shifts in the evenness of distribution of abundances across sites, and whether occupancy is increasing or decreasing. Range-expanding species have an increased likelihood of losing some sites, and populations within sites, exceeding the 1% of total population threshold for site protection

An approach to the assessment of change in the numbers of Canada Branta canadensis and Greylag Geese Anser anser in southern Britain

Population change in geese was assessed using an approach that requires a relatively small sampling effort. During the 1999 breeding season a survey was carried out to determine if the numbers of introduced Canada and re-established Greylag Geese in southern Britain had changed since 1988–91 and whether any change had occurred in areas with previously high or low Canada Goose densities. A randomized stratified sample of 246 tetrads from the 24 156 tetrads covered between 1988–91 in this area, as part of the New Atlas of Breeding Birds, were resurveyed. Eight habitat cate- gories were used in the stratification and were based on 1-km-square summary data obtained from the CEH Land Cover Map of Great Britain (water cover and urbanization) and LANDCLASS stratification (upland/lowland). The five habitat categories with the highest densities of Canada Geese and the greatest variance in numbers were sampled. Between 1989 and 1999, the number of Canada Geese on land with over 5% water cover and on lowland with some water cover increased by on average 156%, an average rate of increase of 9.9% per annum. Southern Britain probably now holds a minimum of 82 000 Canada Geese. Between 1989 and 1999, the number of Greylag Geese on land with over 5% water cover and on lowland with some water cover increased by on average 214%, an average rate of increase of 12% per annum. Southern Britain probably now holds a minimum of 30 000 Greylag Geese. Maximum densities of Canada Geese may have been reached in high-density habitats but their numbers are still increasing very rapidly. Greylag Geese are increasing even more rapidly

Attributing seabirds at sea to appropriate breeding colonies and populations (CR/2015/18)

The Scottish Government has set a target of 100% of Scottish demand for electricity to be met by renewable sources by 2020. Offshore renewables have the potential to make a significant contribution to achieving this target. However, the Scottish Government has a duty to ensure that offshore renewable developments (ORDs) are achieved in a sustainable manner, by protecting habitats and species from adverse impacts. ORDs may negatively affect seabirds, in particular due to collisions with turbine blades, displacement to less favourable habitats and barrier effects to movement. In assessing the potential effects of ORDs on the environment the potential for impacts on protected populations for seabirds is assessed. To inform environmental assessments ORD developers conduct at sea surveys of seabirds. Most seabirds at sea data are collected during surveys from ships or planes, but the breeding colony a seabird has come from cannot be identified from these data. It is important to understand which breeding colonies birds at sea come from, to ensure that the impacts upon the appropriate colony can be assessed as part of the licensing process. The process by which the origin colonies of seabirds at sea is identified is called apportioning. In a project led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology a new tool was developed that built upon an existing tool that attributes seabirds at sea to specific breeding colonies. By comparing several new approaches to analysing seabirds at sea data new improved methods were developed. The resulting apportioning tool allows users to produce a more accurate estimate of the relative proportions of seabirds present in a specific location that can be attributed to different breeding colonies

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Developing an indicator of the abundance, extent and impact of invasive non-native species. Final report

This report describes an indicator of the abundance, extent and impact of invasive non-native species in Great Britain. The main ideas and options for the abundance indicator and for the impact indicator are considered. A third type of indicator, the annual rate of establishment of new non-native species, is outlined, with provisional data presented only for England. Most of the options for the abundance indicator do not in fact measure abundance, but use either frequency in samples or frequency in recording scheme data as a substitute. An exception is the Breeding Bird Survey, for which numbers of individuals are counted. Several well-recorded groups of organisms have no non-native species (e.g. butterflies and lichens) or exceedingly few non-native species (macro-moths). Datasets selected for the abundance indicator were the Breeding Bird Survey (birds and mammals), Countryside Survey (vascular plants), British Bryological Society data (bryophytes) and Marine Biological Society data (marine organisms). From samples of records in each species group, the non-native component was calculated as proportion of all species sampled. This provided a temporal trend in non-native proportions, which were calculated separately for England, Scotland and Wales. The GB trend was derived by combining the trends for each component country, weighted by the area of each. Finally, the overall trend was calculated as a weighted geometric mean of trends for each species group, converted to an index by dividing by a constant to start at 1 in the baseline year 1990. The weights applied were birds 20%, mammals 20%, vascular plants 30%, bryophytes 10% and marine organisms 20%. There were no suitable datasets from the freshwater environment. No direct measure of impact could feasibly be calculated for all invasive species in Great Britain. As a substitute, an indicator based on the extent of occupation by invasive species was adopted. The methodology for the indicator was based on a scheme developed by the Belgian Forum on Invasive Species. First, a list of the most invasive species was compiled, using a simplified environmental impact assessment protocol to assign species to threat categories. Then the extent of each invasive species was scored for 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2007, on a 5-point scale ranging from 0 (absent) to 4 (present in more than half the territory). Extent scores were added to obtain the indicator. Over the period 1990-2007, the mean indexed proportion of records of non-native species in samples of birds, mammals, plants and marine life rose by 23%. Except for mammals, the absolute proportion was still only about 1% of the total. The assessment protocol assigned 49 species in Great Britain to the highest threat category. There were 3 marine plants, 16 marine animals, 4 freshwater plants, 8 freshwater animals, 8 terrestrial plants and 10 terrestrial animals. Over the period 1990-2007, the summed extent scores of these invasive non-native species rose by 40%. The increase of invasive species was particularly large in the freshwater and marine environments. Although non-native species are a potential threat, they are still only a small proportion of the animals and plants to be found in most of the land area and coasts of Great Britain. Vertebrates stand out as the most invasive group. For all groups of organisms reported here, England was the country most affected by non-native species. Scotland was the least affected. Wales was intermediate. In 2008, values of the impact indicator for the three countries were respectively 135, 73 and 95. Most species groups showed a trend over time towards an increasingly non-native biota. If the indicator is to be developed further, the main priority is to include freshwater species in the abundance component. Because the list of invasive species depends on expert judgement, it needs to be reviewed and if necessary updated at regular intervals. Further analytical work is desirable, to improve the signal obtained from recording scheme data