Constructive quantization: approximation by empirical measures

In this article, we study the approximation of a probability measure $\mu$ on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ by its empirical measure $\hat{\mu}_{N}$ interpreted as a random quantization. As error criterion we consider an averaged $p$-th moment Wasserstein metric. In the case where $2p<d$, we establish refined upper and lower bounds for the error, a high-resolution formula. Moreover, we provide a universal estimate based on moments, a so-called Pierce type estimate. In particular, we show that quantization by empirical measures is of optimal order under weak assumptions.Comment: 22 page

An integrative quantifier of multistability in complex systems based on ecological resilience

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) via the Young Investigators Group CoSy-CC2 (grant no. 01LN1306A). C.M. acknowledges the support of Bedartha Goswami, Jobst Heitzig and Tim Kittel.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Analyzing long-term correlated stochastic processes by means of recurrence networks: Potentials and pitfalls

Long-range correlated processes are ubiquitous, ranging from climate variables to financial time series. One paradigmatic example for such processes is fractional Brownian motion (fBm). In this work, we highlight the potentials and conceptual as well as practical limitations when applying the recently proposed recurrence network (RN) approach to fBm and related stochastic processes. In particular, we demonstrate that the results of a previous application of RN analysis to fBm (Liu \textit{et al.,} Phys. Rev. E \textbf{89}, 032814 (2014)) are mainly due to an inappropriate treatment disregarding the intrinsic non-stationarity of such processes. Complementarily, we analyze some RN properties of the closely related stationary fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) processes and find that the resulting network properties are well-defined and behave as one would expect from basic conceptual considerations. Our results demonstrate that RN analysis can indeed provide meaningful results for stationary stochastic processes, given a proper selection of its intrinsic methodological parameters, whereas it is prone to fail to uniquely retrieve RN properties for non-stationary stochastic processes like fBm.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

CoinCalc -- A new R package for quantifying simultaneities of event series

We present the new R package CoinCalc for performing event coincidence analysis (ECA), a novel statistical method to quantify the simultaneity of events contained in two series of observations, either as simultaneous or lagged coincidences within a user-specific temporal tolerance window. The package also provides different analytical as well as surrogate-based significance tests (valid under different assumptions about the nature of the observed event series) as well as an intuitive visualization of the identified coincidences. We demonstrate the usage of CoinCalc based on two typical geoscientific example problems addressing the relationship between meteorological extremes and plant phenology as well as that between soil properties and land cover

Exactly solvable approximating models for Rabi Hamiltonian dynamics

The interaction between an atom and a one mode external driving field is an ubiquitous problem in many branches of physics and is often modeled using the Rabi Hamiltonian. In this paper we present a series of analytically solvable Hamiltonians that approximate the Rabi Hamiltonian and compare our results to the Jaynes-Cummings model which neglects the so-called counter-rotating term in the Rabi Hamiltonian. Through a unitary transformation that diagonlizes the Jaynes-Cummings model, we transform the counter-rotating term into separate terms representing several different physical processes. By keeping only certain terms, we can achieve an excellent approximation to the exact dynamics within specified parameter ranges

Cross-commodity analysis and applications to risk management.

The understanding of joint asset return distributions is an important ingredient for managing risks of portfolios. Although this is a well-discussed issue in fixed income and equity markets, it is a challenge for energy commodities. In this study we are concerned with describing the joint return distribution of energy-related commodities futures, namely power, oil, gas, coal, and carbon. The objective of the study is threefold. First, we conduct a careful analysis of empirical returns and show how the class of multivariate generalized hyperbolic distributions performs in this context. Second, we present how risk measures can be computed for commodity portfolios based on generalized hyperbolic assumptions. And finally,we discuss the implications of our findings for risk management analyzing the exposure of power plants, which represent typical energy portfolios. Our main findings are that risk estimates based on a normal distribution in the context of energy commodities can be statistically improved using generalized hyperbolic distributions. Those distributions are flexible enough to incorporate many characteristics of commodity returns and yield more accurate risk estimates. Our analysis of the market suggests that carbon allowances can be a helpful tool for controlling the risk exposure of a typical energy portfolio representing a power plantCommodities; Risk;