The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including and especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen at key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Stressed out symbiotes:hypotheses for the influence of abiotic stress on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Abiotic stress is a widespread threat to both plant and soil communities. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi can alleviate effects of abiotic stress by improving host plant stress tolerance, but the direct effects of abiotic stress on AM fungi are less well understood. We propose two hypotheses predicting how AM fungi will respond to abiotic stress. The stress exclusion hypothesis predicts that AM fungal abundance and diversity will decrease with persistent abiotic stress. The mycorrhizal stress adaptation hypothesis predicts that AM fungi will evolve in response to abiotic stress to maintain their fitness. We conclude that abiotic stress can have effects on AM fungi independent of the effects on the host plant. AM fungal communities will change in composition in response to abiotic stress, which may mean the loss of important individual species. This could alter feedbacks to the plant community and beyond. AM fungi will adapt to abiotic stress independent of their host plant. The adaptation of AM fungi to abiotic stress should allow the maintenance of the plant-AM fungal mutualism in the face of changing climates. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00442-016-3673-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Revealing the Heterogeneous Nucleation and Growth Behaviour of Grains in Inoculated Aluminium Alloys During Solidification

An in situ X-ray radiographic study on the grain nucleation and grain growth of inoculated Al–10Cu and Al–20Cu alloys during isothermal melt solidification and directional solidification conditions with constant cooling rates has been carried out. The influence of additional level of inoculation particles, cooling rates, and temperature gradient on the nucleation rate and growth kinetics of grains have been quantitatively studied. The deterministic nature of the heterogeneous nucleation of aluminium grain on inoculant particles is revealed. Numerical microstructure models have been developed to simulate the nucleation and growth behavior of aluminum grains and a good agreement between the experimental results and simulation results have been achieved.acceptedVersionThis is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published by Springer. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05861-6_15

Mutualism and Adaptive Divergence: Co-Invasion of a Heterogeneous Grassland by an Exotic Legume-Rhizobium Symbiosis

Species interactions play a critical role in biological invasions. For example, exotic plant and microbe mutualists can facilitate each other's spread as they co-invade novel ranges. Environmental context may influence the effect of mutualisms on invasions in heterogeneous environments, however these effects are poorly understood. We examined the mutualism between the legume, Medicago polymorpha, and the rhizobium, Ensifer medicae, which have both invaded California grasslands. Many of these invaded grasslands are composed of a patchwork of harsh serpentine and relatively benign non-serpentine soils. We grew legume genotypes collected from serpentine or non-serpentine soil in both types of soil in combination with rhizobium genotypes from serpentine or non-serpentine soils and in the absence of rhizobia. Legumes invested more strongly in the mutualism in the home soil type and trends in fitness suggested that this ecotypic divergence was adaptive. Serpentine legumes had greater allocation to symbiotic root nodules in serpentine soil than did non-serpentine legumes and non-serpentine legumes had greater allocation to nodules in non-serpentine soil than did serpentine legumes. Therefore, this invasive legume has undergone the rapid evolution of divergence for soil-specific investment in the mutualism. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the mutualism was less beneficial for legumes grown on the stressful serpentine soil than on the non-serpentine soil, possibly due to the inhibitory effects of serpentine on the benefits derived from the interaction. The soil-specific ability to allocate to a robust microbial mutualism may be a critical, and previously overlooked, adaptation for plants adapting to heterogeneous environments during invasion

A Genome-Wide Characterization of MicroRNA Genes in Maize

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, non-coding RNAs that play essential roles in plant growth, development, and stress response. We conducted a genome-wide survey of maize miRNA genes, characterizing their structure, expression, and evolution. Computational approaches based on homology and secondary structure modeling identified 150 high-confidence genes within 26 miRNA families. For 25 families, expression was verified by deep-sequencing of small RNA libraries that were prepared from an assortment of maize tissues. PCR–RACE amplification of 68 miRNA transcript precursors, representing 18 families conserved across several plant species, showed that splice variation and the use of alternative transcriptional start and stop sites is common within this class of genes. Comparison of sequence variation data from diverse maize inbred lines versus teosinte accessions suggest that the mature miRNAs are under strong purifying selection while the flanking sequences evolve equivalently to other genes. Since maize is derived from an ancient tetraploid, the effect of whole-genome duplication on miRNA evolution was examined. We found that, like protein-coding genes, duplicated miRNA genes underwent extensive gene-loss, with ∼35% of ancestral sites retained as duplicate homoeologous miRNA genes. This number is higher than that observed with protein-coding genes. A search for putative miRNA targets indicated bias towards genes in regulatory and metabolic pathways. As maize is one of the principal models for plant growth and development, this study will serve as a foundation for future research into the functional roles of miRNA genes

Cycles of polarization and settlement:Diffusion and transformation in the macroeconomic policy field

Innovative theories and policy proposals originating in the economics profession have diffused globally over the past several decades, but these models and policy programs transform as they spread. Existing models of change based on the concept of “paradigm shifts” capture the transformation of the economics profession at a high level of abstraction, but analysis of more concrete policy changes and associated ideas requires developing theory at a lower level of abstraction. I propose a field theoretic model of change based on the concept of cycles of polarization and settlement. According to this model, settlements are characterized by multiple cross-cutting axes of competition and debate in a professional field. Moments of contention emerge when field entrepreneurs successfully build professional movements, resulting in polarization. However, contention is episodic and followed by the emergence of “centripetal forces” which lead a gradual return to the center. I develop this model by examining the case of monetary economics and policy in Latin America, a critical case for studies of the policy influence of economic ideas and experts