What does Big Data mean to public affairs research? Understanding the methodological and analytical challenges

The term ‘Big Data’ is often misunderstood or poorly defined, especially in the public sector. Ines Mergel, R. Karl Rethemeyer, and Kimberley R. Isett provide a definition that adequately encompasses the scale, collection processes, and sources of Big Data. However, while recognising its immense potential it is also important to consider the limitations when using Big Data as a policymaking tool. Using this data for purposes not previously envisioned can be problematic, researchers may encounter ethical issues, and certain demographics are often not captured or represented

Timing and drivers of mid- to late Holocene ice-wedge polygon development in the Western Canadian Arctic

Ice-wedge polygon formation and development from low-centred to high-centred types are thought to be either linear processes acting on long time-scales or rapid shifts between different regimes. We analyzed six sediment cores from three ice-wedge polygons on the Yukon Coastal Plain to examine the timing and drivers of these dynamics. All sites developed from shallow lakes or submerged polygon environments to low-centred polygons before rapid degradation and drying during the last century. We found that ice-wedge polygon initiation was linked to moderate climatic cooling during the mid-Holocene combined with drainage of lakes. The further conversion to high-centred polygons appeared to have been a rapid process linked to modern climatic warming. Continued warming may thus lead to increasing ice-wedge melt on larger scales and subsequent degradation of ice-wedge polygons, especially if paired with increasing geomorphic disturbances caused by thermokarst and thermo-erosion

Possible earthquake trigger for 6th century mass wasting deposit at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania)

Lake Ohrid shared by the Republics of Albania and Macedonia is formed by a tectonically active graben within the south Balkans and suggested to be the oldest lake in Europe. Several studies have shown that the lake provides a valuable record of climatic and environmental changes and a distal tephrostratigraphic record of volcanic eruptions from Italy. Fault structures identified in seismic data demonstrate that sediments have also the potential to record tectonic activity in the region. Here, we provide an example of linking seismic and sedimentological information with tectonic activity and historical documents. Historical documents indicate that a major earthquake destroyed the city of Lychnidus (today: city of Ohrid) in the early 6th century AD. Multichannel seismic profiles, parametric sediment echosounder profiles, and a 10.08m long sediment record from the western part of the lake indicate a 2m thick mass wasting deposit, which is tentatively correlated with this earthquake. The mass wasting deposit is chronologically well constrained, as it directly overlays the AD472/AD 512 tephra. Moreover, radiocarbon dates and cross correlation with other sediment sequences with similar geochemical characteristics of the Holocene indicate that the mass wasting event took place prior to the onset of the Medieval Warm Period, and is attributed it to one of the known earthquakes in the region in the early 6th century AD

Paradigm shift in public administration: Implications for teaching in professional training programs

10.1111/j.1540-6210.2009.02085.xPublic Administration Review69SUPPL.

Diverse soil carbon dynamics expressed at the molecular level

The stability and potential vulnerability of soil organic matter (SOM) to global change remains incompletely understood due to the complex processes involved in its formation and turnover. Here we combine compound-specific radiocarbon analysis with fraction-specific and bulk-level radiocarbon measurements in order to further elucidate controls on SOM dynamics in a temperate and sub-alpine forested ecosystem. Radiocarbon contents of individual organic compounds isolated from the same soil interval generally exhibit greater variation than those among corresponding operationally-defined fractions. Notably, markedly older ages of long-chain plant leaf wax lipids (n-alkanoic acids) imply that they reflect a highly stable carbon pool. Furthermore, marked 14C variations among shorter- and longer-chain n-alkanoic acid homologues suggest that they track different SOM pools. Extremes in SOM dynamics thus manifest themselves within a single compound class. This exploratory study highlights the potential of compound-specific radiocarbon analysis for understanding SOM dynamics in ecosystems potentially vulnerable to global change

Depositional modes and lake-level variability at Lake Towuti, Indonesia, during the past ~29 kyr BP

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121.5°E) is a long-lived, tectonic lake located on the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, and in the center of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Lake Towuti is connected with upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona through the Mahalona River, which constitutes the largest inlet to the lake. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into Lake Towuti’s deep northern basin thus exerting significant control on depositional processes in the basin. We combine high-resolution seismic reflection and sedimentological datasets from a 19.8-m-long sediment piston core from the distal edge of this delta to characterize fluctuations in deltaic sedimentation during the past ~29 kyr BP and their relation to climatic change. Our datasets reveal that, in the present, sedimentation is strongly influenced by deposition of laterally transported sediments sourced from the Mahalona River Delta. Variations in the amount of laterally transported sediments, as expressed by coarse fraction amounts in pelagic muds and turbidite recurrence rates and cumulative thicknesses, are primarily a function of lake-level induced delta slope instability and delta progradation into the basin. We infer lowest lake-levels between ~29 and 16, a gradual lake level rise between ~16 and 11, and high lake-levels between ~11 and 0 kyr BP. Periods of highest turbidite deposition, ~26 to 24 and ~18 to 16 kyr BP coincide with Heinrich events 2 and 1, respectively. Our lake-level reconstruction therefore supports previous observations based on geochemical hydroclimate proxies of a very dry last glacial and a wet Holocene in the region, and provides new evidence of millennial-scale variations in moisture balance in the IPWP

Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance Within a Terrorist Organization

This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade's lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism policies experienced, brigade size, and IED components and delivery methods. We find that technical expertise within a brigade allows for careful IED usage, which significantly minimizes civilian casualties (a specific strategic goal of PIRA) while increasing the ability to kill more high value targets with IEDs. Lethal counter-terrorism events also significantly affect a brigade's likelihood of killing both civilians and high-value targets but in different ways. Killing PIRA members significantly decreases IED fatalities but also significantly decreases the possibility of zero civilian IED-related deaths in a given year. Killing innocent Catholics in a Brigade's county significantly increases total and civilian IED fatalities. Together the results suggest the necessity to analyze dynamic situational variables that impact terrorist group behavior at the sub-unit level

Stabilization of mineral-associated organic carbon in Pleistocene permafrost

Ice-rich Pleistocene-age permafrost is particularly vulnerable to rapid thaw, which may quickly expose a large pool of sedimentary organic matter (OM) to microbial degradation and lead to emissions of climate-sensitive greenhouse gases. Protective physico-chemical mechanisms may, however, restrict microbial accessibility and reduce OM decomposition; mechanisms that may be influenced by changing environmental conditions during sediment deposition. Here we study different OM fractions in Siberian permafrost deposited during colder and warmer periods of the past 55,000 years. Among known stabilization mechanisms, the occlusion of OM in aggregates is of minor importance, while 33-74% of the organic carbon is associated with small, <6.3 µm mineral particles. Preservation of carbon in mineral-associated OM is enhanced by reactive iron minerals particularly during cold and dry climate, reflected by low microbial CO2 production in incubation experiments. Warmer and wetter conditions reduce OM stabilization, shown by more decomposed mineral-associated OM and up to 30% higher CO2 production. This shows that considering the stability and bioavailability of Pleistocene-age permafrost carbon is important for predicting future climate-carbon feedback

Evaluating the isotopic composition of leaf organic compounds in fog-dependent Tillandsia landbeckii across the coastal Atacama Desert: Implications for hydroclimate reconstructions at the dry limit

Fog is an important component of the coastal climate of northern Chile and southern Peru. Moisture and nutrients from fog maintain highly endemic vegetation (lomas) as well as unique Tillandsia landbeckii ecosystems that thrive at elevations of ca. 900–1200 m asl. Although this epiphytic CAM bromeliad is well adapted to the extreme climate, declining Tillandsia stocks observed over the past decades question the long-term survival with ongoing climate change. Here, we aim at better understanding the hydroclimatic signal encoded in the leaf organic compounds of Tillandsia landbeckii across the Atacama Desert’s coastal mountain range (ca. 18–21◦S). First, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of fog occurrence and related moisture sources available for the plants applying a new satellite-based fog-detection approach. We then use stable carbon, oxygen and hydrogen (δ13C, δ18O, δD) isotope analysis of leaf wax n-alkanes and cellulose to identify photosynthetic pathway as well as environmental and physiological processes that shape the isotopic composition in Tillandsia landbeckii. We find that leaf wax n-alkanes and cellulose reflect the balance of climatic and physiological drivers differently. While nalkane δD values more closely follow changes in precipitation δD, evaporative enrichment seems to have a dominant influence on cellulose δ18O values. Cellulose δD values are highly enriched compared to n-alkane δD values, likely reflecting a predominant metabolic imprint on δD. δ13C signatures in the organic compounds are valid proxies for CAM activity. Our results prove the general applicability of the isotopic biomarkers for reconstructing environmental change in the coastal Atacama Desert. This approach can be extended globally to west-coast deserts that share fog as a major source of moisture