Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50–100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth

Reconstructions of deltaic environments from Holocene palynological records in the Volga delta, northern Caspian Sea

This article was made available through open access by the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.New palynological and ostracod data are presented from the Holocene Volga delta, obtained from short cores and surface samples collected in the Damchik region, near Astrakhan, Russian Federation in the northern Caspian Sea. Four phases of delta deposition are recognized and constrained by accelerated mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon ages. Palynological records show that erosive channels, dunes (Baer hills) and inter-dune lakes were present during the period 11,500–8900 cal. BP at the time of the Mangyshlak Caspian lowstand. The period 8900–3770 cal. BP was characterized regionally by extensive steppe vegetation, with forest present at times with warmer, more humid climates, and with halophytic and xerophytic vegetation present at times of drought. The period 3770–2080 cal. BP was a time of active delta deposition, with forest or woodland close to the delta, indicating relatively warm and humid climates and variable Caspian Sea levels. From 2080 cal. BP to the present-day, aquatic pollen is frequent in highstand intervals and herbaceous pollen and fungal hyphae frequent in lowstand intervals. Soils and incised valley sediments are associated with the regional Derbent regression and may be time-equivalent with the ‘Medieval Warm Period’. Fungal spores are an indicator of erosional or aeolian processes, whereas fungal hyphae are associated with soil formation. Freshwater algae, ostracods and dinocysts indicate mainly freshwater conditions during the Holocene with minor brackish influences. Dinocysts present include Spiniferites cruciformis, Caspidinium rugosum, Impagidinium caspienense and Pterocysta cruciformis, the latter a new record for the Caspian Sea. The Holocene Volga delta is a partial analogue for the much larger oil and gas bearing Mio-Pliocene palaeo-Volga delta.Funding for the data collection and field work was provided from the following sources: 1 – IGCP-UNESCO 2003–2008 (Project 481 CASPAGE, Dating Caspian Sea Level Change); 2 – NWO, Netherlands Science Foundation and RFFI, Russian Science Foundation 2005–2008 (Programme: ‘VHR Seismic Stratigraphy and Paleoecology of the Holocene Volga Delta’); and 3 – BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) Sea Ltd. (Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli) 2005–2008 (‘Unravelling the Small-Scale Stratigraphy and Sediment Dynamics of the Modern Volga Delta Using VHR Marine Geophysics’). The palynological work was funded jointly by BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) Ltd., Delft University of Technology and KrA Stratigraphic Ltd. Ostracod analyses were funded by StrataData Ltd. and funding for two additional radiocarbon dates provided by Deltares

Annually resolved North Atlantic marine climate over the last millennium

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.Owing to the lack of absolutely dated oceanographic information before the modern instrumental period, there is currently significant debate as to the role played by North Atlantic Ocean dynamics in previous climate transitions (for example, Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age, MCA-LIA). Here we present analyses of a millennial-length, annually resolved and absolutely dated marine δ(18)O archive. We interpret our record of oxygen isotope ratios from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (δ(18)O-shell), from the North Icelandic shelf, in relation to seawater density variability and demonstrate that solar and volcanic forcing coupled with ocean circulation dynamics are key drivers of climate variability over the last millennium. During the pre-industrial period (AD 1000-1800) variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic leads changes in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures at multi-decadal timescales, indicating that North Atlantic Ocean dynamics played an active role in modulating the response of the atmosphere to solar and volcanic forcing.We thank the members of the RV Bjarni Sæmundsson (Cruise No. B05-2006). This work was supported by the NERC-funded ULTRA project (Grant Number NE/H023356/1), NERC-funded CLAM project; (Project No. NE/N001176/1) and EU Millennium Project (Project number 017008). This study is a contribution to the Climate Change Consortium for Wales (C3W). We thank Brian Long (Bangor University) and Dr Julia Becker (Cardiff University) for their technical support, and Dr Manfred Mudelsee for his assistance with the trend analysis. We thank Dr Jessica Tierney and an anonymous reviewer for providing the constructive comments in the reviewing process

The influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on nocturnal layers of noctuids and other moths migrating over southern Britain

Insects migrating at high altitude over southern Britain have been continuously monitored by automatically-operating, vertical-looking radars over a period of several years. During some occasions in the summer months, the migrants were observed to form well-defined layer concentrations, typically at heights of 200-400 m, in the stable night-time atmosphere. Under these conditions, insects are likely to have control over their vertical movements and are selecting flight heights which are favourable for long-range migration. We therefore investigated the factors influencing the formation of these insect layers by comparing radar measurements of the vertical distribution of insect density with meteorological profiles generated by the UK Met. Office’s Unified Model (UM). Radar-derived measurements of mass and displacement speed, along with data from Rothamsted Insect Survey light traps provided information on the identity of the migrants. We present here three case studies where noctuid and pyralid moths contributed substantially to the observed layers. The major meteorological factors influencing the layer concentrations appeared to be: (a) the altitude of the warmest air, (b) heights corresponding to temperature preferences or thresholds for sustained migration and (c), on nights when air temperatures are relatively high, wind-speed maxima associated with the nocturnal jet. Back-trajectories indicated that layer duration may have been determined by the distance to the coast. Overall, the unique combination of meteorological data from the UM and insect data from entomological radar described here show considerable promise for systematic studies of high-altitude insect layering

Radar tracking and motion-sensitive cameras on flowers reveal the development of pollinator multi-destination routes over large spatial scales.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tCentral place foragers, such as pollinating bees, typically develop circuits (traplines) to visit multiple foraging sites in a manner that minimizes overall travel distance. Despite being taxonomically widespread, these routing behaviours remain poorly understood due to the difficulty of tracking the foraging history of animals in the wild. Here we examine how bumblebees (Bombus terrestris) develop and optimise traplines over large spatial scales by setting up an array of five artificial flowers arranged in a regular pentagon (50 m side length) and fitted with motion-sensitive video cameras to determine the sequence of visitation. Stable traplines that linked together all the flowers in an optimal sequence were typically established after a bee made 26 foraging bouts, during which time only about 20 of the 120 possible routes were tried. Radar tracking of selected flights revealed a dramatic decrease by 80% (ca. 1500 m) of the total travel distance between the first and the last foraging bout. When a flower was removed and replaced by a more distant one, bees engaged in localised search flights, a strategy that can facilitate the discovery of a new flower and its integration into a novel optimal trapline. Based on these observations, we developed and tested an iterative improvement heuristic to capture how bees could learn and refine their routes each time a shorter route is found. Our findings suggest that complex dynamic routing problems can be solved by small-brained animals using simple learning heuristics, without the need for a cognitive map.This research was supported by a combined grant from the Wellcome Trust, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (BB/F52765X/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Effects of cash transfers on Children's health and social protection in Sub-Saharan Africa: differences in outcomes based on orphan status and household assets

BACKGROUND: Unconditional and conditional cash transfer programmes (UCT and CCT) show potential to improve the well-being of orphans and other children made vulnerable by HIV/AIDS (OVC). We address the gap in current understanding about the extent to which household-based cash transfers differentially impact individual children’s outcomes, according to risk or protective factors such as orphan status and household assets. METHODS: Data were obtained from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in eastern Zimbabwe, with random assignment to three study arms – UCT, CCT or control. The sample included 5,331 children ages 6-17 from 1,697 households. Generalized linear mixed models were specified to predict OVC health vulnerability (child chronic illness and disability) and social protection (birth registration and 90% school attendance). Models included child-level risk factors (age, orphan status); household risk factors (adults with chronic illnesses and disabilities, greater household size); and household protective factors (including asset-holding). Interactions were systematically tested. RESULTS: Orphan status was associated with decreased likelihood for birth registration, and paternal orphans and children for whom both parents’ survival status was unknown were less likely to attend school. In the UCT arm, paternal orphans fared better in likelihood of birth registration compared with non-paternal orphans. Effects of study arms on outcomes were not moderated by any other risk or protective factors. High household asset-holding was associated with decreased likelihood of child’s chronic illness and increased birth registration and school attendance, but household assets did not moderate the effects of cash transfers on risk or protective factors. CONCLUSION: Orphaned children are at higher risk for poor social protection outcomes even when cared for in family-based settings. UCT and CCT each produced direct effects on children’s social protection which are not moderated by other child- and household-level risk factors, but orphans are less likely to attend school or obtain birth registration. The effects of UCT and CCT are not moderated by asset-holding, but greater household assets predict greater social protection outcomes. Intervention efforts need to focus on ameliorating the additional risk burden carried by orphaned children. These efforts might include caregiver education, and additional incentives based on efforts made specifically for orphaned children

Two-neutron knockout from neutron-deficient 34^{34}Ar, 30^{30}S, and 26^{26}Si

Two-neutron knockout reactions from nuclei in the proximity of the proton dripline have been studied using intermediate-energy beams of neutron-deficient $^{34}$Ar, $^{30}$S, and $^{26}$Si. The inclusive cross sections, and also the partial cross sections for the population of individual bound final states of the $^{32}$Ar, $^{28}$S and $^{24}$Si knockout residues, have been determined using the combination of particle and $\gamma$-ray spectroscopy. Similar to the two-proton knockout mechanism on the neutron-rich side of the nuclear chart, these two-neutron removal reactions from already neutron-deficient nuclei are also shown to be consistent with a direct reaction mechanism.Comment: Phys. Rev. C, rapid communication, in pres

Acquisition of pneumococci specific effector and regulatory Cd4+ T cells localising within human upper respiratory-tract mucosal lymphoid tissue

The upper respiratory tract mucosa is the location for commensal Streptococcus (S.) pneumoniae colonization and therefore represents a major site of contact between host and bacteria. The CD4(+) T cell response to pneumococcus is increasingly recognised as an important mediator of immunity that protects against invasive disease, with data suggesting a critical role for Th17 cells in mucosal clearance. By assessing CD4 T cell proliferative responses we demonstrate age-related sequestration of Th1 and Th17 CD4(+) T cells reactive to pneumococcal protein antigens within mucosal lymphoid tissue. CD25(hi) T cell depletion and utilisation of pneumococcal specific MHCII tetramers revealed the presence of antigen specific Tregs that utilised CTLA-4 and PDL-1 surface molecules to suppress these responses. The balance between mucosal effector and regulatory CD4(+) T cell immunity is likely to be critical to pneumococcal commensalism and the prevention of unwanted pathology associated with carriage. However, if dysregulated, such responses may render the host more susceptible to invasive pneumococcal infection and adversely affect the successful implementation of both polysaccharide-conjugate and novel protein-based pneumococcal vaccines

A high-dimensional, stochastic model for twin-screw granulation Part 2: Numerical methodology

In the second part of this study, we present the stochastic weighted particle population balance framework used to solve the twin-screw granulation model detailed in the first part of this study. Each stochastic jump process is presented in detail, including a new nucleation jump event capable of capturing the immersion nucleation processes in twin-screw granulation. A variable weighted inception algorithm is presented and demonstrated to reduce the computational cost of simulations by up to two orders of magnitude over traditional approaches. The relationship between the performance of the simulation algorithm and key numerical parameters within the nucleation jump process are explored and optimum operating conditions are identified. Finally, convergence studies on the complete simulation algorithm demonstrate that the algorithm is very robust against changes in the number of stochastic particles used, provided that the number of particles exceeds a minimum required for numerical stability.The authors would like to thank AstraZeneca for funding this work. This work was partially funded by EPSRC Grant 1486478 and the National Research Foundation (NRF), Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) programme

A high-dimensional, stochastic model for twin-screw granulation – Part 1: Model description

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd In this work we present a novel four-dimensional, stochastic population balance model for twin-screw granulation. The model uses a compartmental framework to reflect changes in mechanistic rates between different screw element geometries. This allows us to capture the evolution of the material along the barrel length. The predictive power of the model is assessed across a range of liquid-solid feed ratios through comparison with experimental particle size distributions. The model results show a qualitative agreement with experimental trends and a number of areas for model improvement are discussed. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the effect of key operating variables and model parameters on the simulated product particle size distribution. The stochastic treatment of the model allows the particle description to be readily extended to track more complex particle properties and their transformations