On the Bernstein-von Mises phenomenon for nonparametric Bayes procedures

We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined, and prove Bernstein-von Mises theorems for a variety of priors in the setting of Gaussian nonparametric regression and in the i.i.d. sampling model. From these results we deduce several applications where posterior-based inference coincides with efficient frequentist procedures, including Donsker- and Kolmogorov-Smirnov theorems for the random posterior cumulative distribution functions. We also show that multiscale posterior credible bands for the regression or density function are optimal frequentist confidence bands.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1246 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL-INTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS FOR COMMUNAL RESOURCE OWNERS: THE CASE OF COMMUNAL FARMERS IN ECUADOR

The introduction in Ecuador of a primary irrigation infrastructure into a communal setting where land users did not fully control the land and had effectively no access to credit, produced a sell off of nearly all irrigable lands. The change in land reservation prices between buyers and sellers is analyzed.Land Economics/Use,

Análisis del sistema de referencia de pacientes tratados por cáncer colorrectal en complejo asistencial Dr. Sótero del Río y propuesta de intervención

Tesis (MBA con especialización en salud)El cáncer colorrectal (CCR) es un problema de salud incipiente en Chile que requiere implementación de estrategias para la detección precoz. El objetivo de este estudio es realizar un diagnóstico de los CCR diagnosticados en Complejo Asistencial Dr. Sótero de Río (CASR) según origen de derivaciones como reflejo del funcionamiento de la red de salud. Estudio de los casos de CCR diagnosticados en CASR en 2016 (beneficiarios de FONASA). De acuerdo al origen de derivación (APS, extrasistema), se analizó variables demográficas y de estado de avance del CCR, tiempos de espera y resultados perioperatorios inmediatos

Flora y su funcionalidad en dos agroecosistemas de café (Coffea arabica L.) en Condega, Estelí, Nicaragua, 2016

Debido a los altos costos de manejo y contaminación en sistemas productivos convencional se da la necesidad de enfoques agroecológicos en la agricultura. El propósito de este estudio fue evaluar la flora y su funcionalidad en dos agro ecosistemas de café en la comunidad los Alpes, Condega departamento de Estelí.La finca Linda Vista está a una altitud de 1300 msnm y en la Finca El Milagro de Dios a 1100 msnm. Para la evaluación de la flora se dividieron las fincas en 5 estratos donde se estudió el bosque latifoliado con parcelas de 50 m*20 m y censo; para bosque latifoliado con árboles dispersos con franjas de 10 m de ancho con longitud variable. El muestreo de arvenses se realizó mediante el método del metro cuadrado de forma aleatoria y la flora cultivada por medio de un a entrevista semiestructurada. En la flora arvense se registró la abundancia y la diversidad, en los árboles se evaluaron variables dasométricas. Los organismos muestreados fueron identificados a nivel de clase, orden, familia, género y especie. El mayor porcentaje en las categorías de calidad de fustes, presencia de lianas y estado fitosanitario correspondieron a la Finca Linda Vista en las áreas boscosas y de árboles dispersos. El mayor porcentaje de intensidad de iluminación fue para la Finca El Milagro de Dios para árboles dispersos; para las áreas boscosas se destacó la Finca Linda Vista.Se identificaron 6 clases, 38 órdenes, 71 familias, 143 géneros y 155 especies. La Finca Linda Vista reflejó una mayor riqueza de especies en el índice alfa, en el índice de diversidad beta se encontraron disimilitudes en todas las categorías taxonómicas comunes. Prevalecieron los roles de árboles energéticos y de construcción sobresaliendo las familias Hamamedilaceae, Fabaceae, Pinaceae, Fagaceae y Vochysiaseace. En arvenses y cultivadas prevalecieron las medicinal y alimenticio por las familias Apiaceae, Commenlinaceae, Poaceae, Fabaceae, Solanaceae y Rubiaceae

A Magnus Wind Turbine Power Model Based on Direct Solutions Using the Blade Element Momentum Theory and Symbolic Regression

A model of the power coefficient of a mid-scale Magnus wind turbine using numerical solutions of the Blade Element Momentum Theory and symbolic regression is presented. A direct method is proposed for solving the nonlinear system of equations which govern the phenomena under study.The influence of the tip speed ratio and the number, aspect ratio, and the angular speed of the cylinder son the turbine performanceisobtained. Results show that the máximum power coefficientisontheorderof 0.2, whichis obtained witht wolowa spectratio cylinders, adimension lesscy linder speed ratio of 2, and a turbine tip-speed ratio between 2 and 3. The predicted power coefficient at low tip-speed ratio suggests that a Magnus turbine may be adequate in the urban environment

On positivity of Ehrhart polynomials

Ehrhart discovered that the function that counts the number of lattice points in dilations of an integral polytope is a polynomial. We call the coefficients of this polynomial Ehrhart coefficients, and say a polytope is Ehrhart positive if all Ehrhart coefficients are positive (which is not true for all integral polytopes). The main purpose of this article is to survey interesting families of polytopes that are known to be Ehrhart positive and discuss the reasons from which their Ehrhart positivity follows. We also include examples of polytopes that have negative Ehrhart coefficients and polytopes that are conjectured to be Ehrhart positive, as well as pose a few relevant questions.Comment: 40 pages, 7 figures. To appear in in Recent Trends in Algebraic Combinatorics, a volume of the Association for Women in Mathematics Series, Springer International Publishin

Inverse association between diabetes and altitude: a cross-sectional study in the adult population of the United States.

ObjectiveTo determine whether geographical elevation is inversely associated with diabetes, while adjusting for multiple risk factors.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional analysis of publicly available online data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2009. Final dataset included 285,196 US adult subjects. Odds ratios were obtained from multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis.ResultsAmong US adults (≥20 years old), the odds ratio for diabetes was 1.00 between 0 and 499 m of altitude (reference), 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.01) between 500 and 1,499 m, and 0.88 (0.81-0.96) between 1,500 and 3,500 m, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption, self-reported physical activity, current smoking status, level of education, income, health status, employment status, and county-level information on migration rate, urbanization, and latitude. The inverse association between altitude and diabetes in the US was found among men [0.84 (0.76-0.94)], but not women [1.09 (0.97-1.22)].ConclusionsAmong US adults, living at high altitude (1,500-3,500 m) is associated with lower odds of having diabetes than living between 0 and 499 m, while adjusting for multiple risk factors. Our findings suggest that geographical elevation may be an important factor linked to diabetes