Nested sampling for Bayesian model comparison in the context of Salmonella disease dynamics.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics of complex biological systems requires the statistical assessment and comparison of multiple alternative models. Although this has traditionally been done using maximum likelihood-based methods such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian methods have gained in popularity because they provide more informative output in the form of posterior probability distributions. However, comparison between multiple models in a Bayesian framework is made difficult by the computational cost of numerical integration over large parameter spaces. A new, efficient method for the computation of posterior probabilities has recently been proposed and applied to complex problems from the physical sciences. Here we demonstrate how nested sampling can be used for inference and model comparison in biological sciences. We present a reanalysis of data from experimental infection of mice with Salmonella enterica showing the distribution of bacteria in liver cells. In addition to confirming the main finding of the original analysis, which relied on AIC, our approach provides: (a) integration across the parameter space, (b) estimation of the posterior parameter distributions (with visualisations of parameter correlations), and (c) estimation of the posterior predictive distributions for goodness-of-fit assessments of the models. The goodness-of-fit results suggest that alternative mechanistic models and a relaxation of the quasi-stationary assumption should be considered.RD was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (grant number BB/I002189/1). TJM was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) (grant number BB/I012192/1). OR was funded by the Royal Society.This paper was originally published in PLOS ONE (Dybowski R, McKinley TJ, Mastroeni P, Restif O, PLoS ONE 2013, 8(12): e82317. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0082317)

Single passage in mouse organs enhances the survival and spread of Salmonella enterica.

Intravenous inoculation of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium into mice is a prime experimental model of invasive salmonellosis. The use of wild-type isogenic tagged strains (WITS) in this system has revealed that bacteria undergo independent bottlenecks in the liver and spleen before establishing a systemic infection. We recently showed that those bacteria that survived the bottleneck exhibited enhanced growth when transferred to naive mice. In this study, we set out to disentangle the components of this in vivo adaptation by inoculating mice with WITS grown either in vitro or in vivo. We developed an original method to estimate the replication and killing rates of bacteria from experimental data, which involved solving the probability-generating function of a non-homogeneous birth-death-immigration process. This revealed a low initial mortality in bacteria obtained from a donor animal. Next, an analysis of WITS distributions in the livers and spleens of recipient animals indicated that in vivo-passaged bacteria started spreading between organs earlier than in vitro-grown bacteria. These results further our understanding of the influence of passage in a host on the fitness and virulence of Salmonella enterica and represent an advance in the power of investigation on the patterns and mechanisms of host-pathogen interactions.This work was funded by a Medical Research Council (MRC) grant (G0801161) awarded to AJG, PM and DJM. RD was supported by BBSRC grant BB/I002189/1 awarded to PM. OR is supported by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society.This is the final version of the article. It was first available from Royal Society Publishing via http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.070

Classification of incomplete feature vectors by radial basis function networks

The paper describes the use of radial basis function neural networks with Gaussian basis functions to classify incomplete feature vectors. The method uses the fact that any marginal distribution of a Gaussian distribution can be determined from the mean vector and covariance matrix of the joint distribution

Prediction regions for the visualization of incomplete datasets

A complication in the visualization of biomedical datasets is that they are often incomplete. A response to this is to multiply impute each missing datum prior to visualization in order to convey the uncertainty of the imputations. In our approach, the initially complete cases in a real-valued dataset are represented as points in a principal components plot and, for each initially incomplete case in the dataset, we use an associated prediction region or interval displayed on the same plot to indicate the probable location ofthe case. When a case has only one missing datum, a prediction interval is used in place of a region. The prediction region or interval associated with an incomplete case is determined from the dispersion of the multiple imputations of the case mapped onto the plot. We illustrate this approachwith two incomplete datasets: the first is based on two multivariate normaldistributions; the second on a published, simulated health survey