MULTIPERIOD OPTIMIZATION: DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING VS. OPTIMAL CONTROL: DISCUSSION

Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

DROUGHT, STRIFE, AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Spatial Disaggregation of Agricultural Production Data

In this paper we develop a dynamic data-consistent way for estimating agricultural land use choices at a disaggregate level (district-level), using more aggregate data (regional-level). The disaggregation procedure requires two steps. The first step consists in specifying and estimating a dynamic model of land use at the regional level. In the second step, we disaggregate outcomes of the aggregate model using maximum entropy (ME). The ME disaggregation procedure is applied to a sample of California data. The sample includes 6 districts located in Central Valley and 8 possible crops, namely: Alfalfa, Cotton, Field, Grain, Melons, Tomatoes, Vegetables and Subtropical. The disaggregation procedure enables the recovery of land use at the district-level with an out-sample prediction error of 16%. This result shows that the micro behavior, inferred from aggregate data with our disaggregation approach, seems to be consistent with observed behavior.Disaggregation, Bayesian method, Maximum entropy, Land use, Production Economics, C11, C44, Q12,

Species Conservation on a Working Landscape: The Joint Production of Wildlife and Crops in the Yolo Bypass Floodplain

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/19/11.Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Theme Overview: The Changing Nature of Agricultural Water Allocation

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

THE COST OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL TO U.S. CROP PRODUCTION: MEASURING CROP PRICE, REGIONAL ACREAGE, WELFARE, AND INPUT SUBSTITUTION EFFECTS

This study analyzes the impact of implementing carbon permit trading considered under the Kyoto Protocol, and the subsequent expected increase in energy and resource prices on U.S. crop production. The focus is on input substitution, net farm income, regional crop acreage, and crop prices. The analysis is carried out with a calibrated mathematical programming model which covers the major crops produced in the 48 contiguous states on a regional basis. The model accounts for both the variable inputs and the allocatable inputs of land and irrigation water, and it permits input substitution when farmers are faced with external shocks. The results suggest that when energy prices increase, the net cost to the crop-producing sector depends on the farmerÂ’'s ability to substitute crop inputs and the elasticity of demand for the crops. The impacts of carbon tax cost increases differ significantly among crops and regions. Overall, crop acreage and output decrease, total net revenues increase in most regions, and consumer surplus declines.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Survey of Material for an Infrared-Opaque Coating

More than 40 reflectance spectra in the range from 20 to 500 microns have been obtained for a variety of coatings, binders, and additives to identify promising components of an infrared-opaque coating for the Space Infrared Telescope Facility. Certain combinations of materials showed a specular reflectance below 0.1 throughout the spectral range measured. In addition to estimating the optical constants of several combination coatings, this survey also supports three qualitative conclusions: (1) promising off-the-shelf binders of different additives are Chemglaze Z-306, ECP-2200, and De Soto Black; (2) carbon black is very effective in reducing far-infrared reflectance; (3) the far-infrared reflectance from coatings containing 80 SiC grit is consistently lower than that from similar coatings containing TiBr powder

Income Distributional Effects of Using Market-Based Instruments for Managing Common Property Resources

In the face of growing management problems and conflicts over increasing demands and dwindling or increasingly variable supplies of surface and groundwater, the need for revising the conventional water resource allocation methods has been increasingly felt among natural resource managers and policy makers. For the past 30 years economists have advocated for the application of various types of market-based instruments (MBIs) as an efficient means of effecting the re-allocation water resources among competing uses. While MBIs have been implemented in several countries, they have continued to encounter strong socio-political opposition, due to the impacts imposed on third-parties during transfers and re-allocations, as well as the distributional effects across different types of water users. Despite the demonstrable efficiency gains of MBIs, the resulting equity or distributional effects of MBI-driven re-allocations can be of equal or greater importance to policy-makers and the constituents that they serve. At the same time, the realized gains in economic efficiency from the application of MBIs depend heavily on the heterogeneity of the agents they are targeted towards, as well as the degree of information asymmetry that the regulator faces. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical framework to show the trade-offs between efficiency and equity that might arise from the application of MBIs to a heterogenous population of agents drawing non-cooperatively from a natural resource pool. Using the idealized centralized planner as a benchmark of dynamic, allocative efficiency, we compare the realized efficiency gains that can be realized by alternative policy instruments and the resulting impacts on distributional equity, in terms of the cumulative net benefits over time. Using the specific example of groundwater and the empirical setting of Southern California, we are able to highlight the trade-offs between efficiency and equity that might exist among alternative policy instruments, and how MBIs perform with respect to those dual criteria. We find that under agent heterogeneity, there are asymmetric gains in efficiency when the centralized planner allocations are constrained by equity considerations. Through such results, this paper demonstrates the importance of considering both efficiency gains and the minimization of disparities in distributional inequity, when designing policy instruments that create winners and losers with potentially serious socio-political ramifications.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Transitions for the Delta Economy

Details threats to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, policy proposals to improve environmental management and water supply reliability, how these changes will affect land and water conditions, and implications for the area's and regional economies