Conditional limit laws for goodness-of-fit tests

We study the conditional distribution of goodness of fit statistics of the Cram\'{e}r--von Mises type given the complete sufficient statistics in testing for exponential family models. We show that this distribution is close, in large samples, to that given by parametric bootstrapping, namely, the unconditional distribution of the statistic under the value of the parameter given by the maximum likelihood estimate. As part of the proof, we give uniform Edgeworth expansions of Rao--Blackwell estimates in these models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/11-BEJ366 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Exact Post-Selection Inference for Sequential Regression Procedures

We propose new inference tools for forward stepwise regression, least angle regression, and the lasso. Assuming a Gaussian model for the observation vector y, we first describe a general scheme to perform valid inference after any selection event that can be characterized as y falling into a polyhedral set. This framework allows us to derive conditional (post-selection) hypothesis tests at any step of forward stepwise or least angle regression, or any step along the lasso regularization path, because, as it turns out, selection events for these procedures can be expressed as polyhedral constraints on y. The p-values associated with these tests are exactly uniform under the null distribution, in finite samples, yielding exact type I error control. The tests can also be inverted to produce confidence intervals for appropriate underlying regression parameters. The R package "selectiveInference", freely available on the CRAN repository, implements the new inference tools described in this paper.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

Rejoinder: "A significance test for the lasso"

Rejoinder of "A significance test for the lasso" by Richard Lockhart, Jonathan Taylor, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Robert Tibshirani [arXiv:1301.7161].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1175REJ the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org). With Correctio

Mars Encounters cause fresh surfaces on some near-Earth asteroids

All airless bodies are subject to the space environment, and spectral differences between asteroids and meteorites suggest many asteroids become weathered on very short (<1My) timescales. The spectra of some asteroids, particularly Q-types, indicate surfaces that appear young and fresh, implying they have been recently been exposed. Previous work found that Earth encounters were the dominant freshening mechanism and could be responsible for all near-Earth object (NEO) Q-types. In this work we increase the known NEO Q-type sample of by a factor of three. We present the orbital distributions of 64 Q-type near-Earth asteroids, and seek to determine the dominant mechanisms for refreshing their surfaces. Our sample reveals two important results: i) the relatively steady fraction of Q-types with increasing semi-major axis and ii) the existence of Q-type near-Earth asteroids with Minimum Orbit Intersection Distances (MOID) that do not have orbit solutions that cross Earth. Both of these are evidence that Earth-crossing is not the only scenario by which NEO Q-types are freshened. The high Earth-MOID asteroids represent 10% of the Q-type population and all are in Amor orbits. While surface refreshing could also be caused by Main Belt collisions or mass shedding from YORP spinup, all high Earth-MOID Q-types have the possibility of encounters with Mars indicating Mars could be responsible for a significant fraction of NEOs with fresh surfaces.Comment: Accepted for publication in Icarus -- 14 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, 2 appendice

Rejoinder to “A Significance Test for the Lasso”

We would like to thank the editors and referees for their considerable efforts that improved our paper, and all of the discussants for their feedback, and their thoughtful and stimulating comments. Linear models are central in applied statistics, and inference for adaptive linear modeling is an important active area of research. Our paper is clearly not the last word on the subject! Several of the discussants introduce novel proposals for this problem; in fact, many of the discussions are interesting “mini-papers ” on their own, and we will not attempt to reply to all of the points that they raise. Our hope is that our paper and the excellent accompanying discussions will serve as a helpful resource for researchers interested in this topic. Since the writing of our original paper, we have (with many our of graduate students) extended the work considerably. Before responding to the discussants, we will first summarize this new work because it will be relevant to our responses. • As mentioned in the last section of the paper, we have derived a “spacing ” test of the global null hypothesis, β ∗ = 0, which takes the for

HST/WFC3 Observations of an Off-Nuclear Superbubble in Arp 220

We present a high spatial resolution optical and infrared study of the circumnuclear region in Arp 220, a late-stage galaxy merger. Narrowband imaging using HST/WFC3 has resolved the previously observed peak in H$\alpha$+[NII] emission into a bubble-shaped feature. This feature measures 1.6" in diameter, or 600 pc, and is only 1" northwest of the western nucleus. The bubble is aligned with the western nucleus and the large-scale outflow axis seen in X-rays. We explore several possibilities for the bubble origin, including a jet or outflow from a hidden active galactic nucleus (AGN), outflows from high levels of star formation within the few hundred pc nuclear gas disk, or an ultraluminous X-ray source. An obscured AGN or high levels of star formation within the inner $\sim$100 pc of the nuclei are favored based on the alignment of the bubble and energetics arguments.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 12 pages, 10 figure

A deep search for planets in the inner 15 au around Vega

We present the results of a deep high-contrast imaging search for planets around Vega. Vega is an ideal target for high-contrast imaging because it is bright, nearby, and young with a face-on two-belt debris disk which may be shaped by unseen planets. We obtained $J-$ and $H-$band data on Vega with the coronagraphic integral-field spectrograph Project 1640 (P1640) at Palomar Observatory. Two nights of data were obtained in 2016, in poor seeing conditions, and two additional nights in more favorable conditions in 2017. In total, we obtained 5.5 hours of integration time on Vega in moderate to good seeing conditions (<1.5"). We did not detect any low mass companions in this system. Our data present the most sensitive contrast limits around Vega at very small separations (2-15 au) thus far, allowing us to place new constraints on the companions which may be sculpting the Vega system. In addition to new constraints, as the deepest data obtained with P1640, these observations form the final legacy of the now decommissioned instrument.Comment: Accepted for publication in A

Conceptual Basis for an Index of Forest Integrity for Upland Coastal Plain Ecosystems

Following the recent trend to manage natural resources for sustainability, ecologists, resource managers and policymakers are beginning to think of the management of forest ecosystems in terms of ecosystem health or ecosystem integrity. Biologists are increasingly recognizing that use of chemical assays in assessing the condition of an ecosystem has limited value, and that biological factors, e.g., species diversity and composition, can be useful characters in the analysis of biotic integrity. An index of biotic integrity (IBI) has been developed for riverine ecosystems in the Midwest U.S., using fish species diversity, indicator population analysis, trophic structure assessment, and physiological abnormalities in fish as measurable surrogates for biotic integrity . This paper explores the development of an analogous index of forest integrity (IFI) to be applied to the upland coastal plain forests of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The IFI developed here includes sampling and analysis of population trends of dominant plant taxa, plant species diversity, and horizontal and vertical vegetative structure at midstory, shrub and detritus levels