The Utility of Outpatient Commitment: I. A Need for Treatment and a Least Restrictive Alternative to Psychiatric Hospitalization.

ObjectivesThis study examined whether psychiatric patients assigned to community treatment orders (CTOs), outpatient commitment in Victoria, Australia, have a greater need for treatment to protect their health and safety than patients not assigned to CTOs. It also considered whether such treatment is provided in a least restrictive manner-that is, in a way that contributes to reduced use of psychiatric hospitalization.MethodsThe sample included 11,424 patients first placed on a CTO between 2000 and 2010, and 16,161 patients not placed on a CTO. Need for treatment was independently assessed with the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) at hospital admission and at discharge. Ordinary least-squares and Poisson regressions were used to assess savings in hospital days attributable to CTO placement.ResultsHoNOS ratings indicated that at admission and discharge, the CTO cohort's need for treatment exceeded that of the non-CTO cohort, particularly in areas indicating potential dangerous behavior. When analyses adjusted for the propensity to be selected into the CTO cohort and other factors, the mean duration of an inpatient episode was 4.6 days shorter for the CTO cohort than for the non-CTO cohort, and a reduction of 10.4 days per inpatient episode was attributable to each CTO placement.ConclusionsCTO placement may have helped patients with a greater need for treatment to experience shorter hospital stays. Whether the CTO directly enabled the fulfillment of unsought but required treatment needs that protected patient health and safety is a question that needs to be addressed in future research

On measuring the covariance matrix of the nonlinear power spectrum from simulations

We show how to estimate the covariance of the power spectrum of a statistically homogeneous and isotropic density field from a single periodic simulation, by applying a set of weightings to the density field, and by measuring the scatter in power spectra between different weightings. We recommend a specific set of 52 weightings containing only combinations of fundamental modes, constructed to yield a minimum variance estimate of the covariance of power. Numerical tests reveal that at nonlinear scales the variance of power estimated by the weightings method substantially exceeds that estimated from a simple ensemble method. We argue that the discrepancy is caused by beat-coupling, in which products of closely spaced Fourier modes couple by nonlinear gravitational growth to the beat mode between them. Beat-coupling appears whenever nonlinear power is measured from Fourier modes with a finite spread of wavevector, and is therefore present in the weightings method but not the ensemble method. Beat-coupling inevitably affects real galaxy surveys, whose Fourier modes have finite width. Surprisingly, the beat-coupling contribution dominates the covariance of power at nonlinear scales, so that, counter-intuitively, it is expected that the covariance of nonlinear power in galaxy surveys is dominated not by small scale structure, but rather by beat-coupling to the largest scales of the survey.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures. To appear in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. Revised to match accepted versio

Linearisation with Cosmological Perturbation Theory

We propose a new method to linearise cosmological mass density fields using higher order Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT). We demonstrate that a given density field can be expressed as the sum of a linear and a nonlinear component which are tightly coupled to each other by the tidal field tensor within the LPT framework. The linear component corresponds to the initial density field in Eulerian coordinates, and its mean relation with the total field can be approximated by a logarithm (giving theoretical support to recent attempts to find such component). We also propose to use a combination of the linearisation method and the continuity equation to find the mapping between Eulerian and Lagrangian coordinates. In addition, we note that this method opens the possibility of use directly higher order LPT on nonlinear fields. We test our linearization scheme by applying it to the z~0.5 density field from an N-body simulation. We find that the linearised version of the full density field can be successfully recovered on >~5 h^{-1}Mpc, reducing the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution by about one and two orders of magnitude, respectively. This component can also be successfully traced back in time, converging towards the initial unevolved density field at z~100. We anticipate a number of applications of our results, from predicting velocity fields to estimates of the initial conditions of the universe, passing by improved constraints on cosmological parameters derived from galaxy clustering via reconstruction methods.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Non-Gaussian errors of baryonic acoustic oscillations

We revisit the uncertainty in baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) forecasts and data analyses. In particular, we study how much the uncertainties on both the measured mean dilation scale and the associated error bar are affected by the non-Gaussianity of the non-linear density field. We examine two possible impacts of non-Gaussian analysis: (1) we derive the distance estimators from Gaussian theory, but use 1000 N-Body simulations to measure the actual errors, and compare this to the Gaussian prediction, and (2) we compute new optimal estimators, which requires the inverse of the non-Gaussian covariance matrix of the matter power spectrum. Obtaining an accurate and precise inversion is challenging, and we opted for a noise reduction technique applied on the covariance matrices. By measuring the bootstrap error on the inverted matrix, this work quantifies for the first time the significance of the non-Gaussian error corrections on the BAO dilation scale. We find that the variance (error squared) on distance measurements can deviate by up to 12% between both estimators, an effect that requires a large number of simulations to be resolved. We next apply a reconstruction algorithm to recover some of the BAO signal that had been smeared by non-linear evolution, and we rerun the analysis. We find that after reconstruction, the rms error on the distance measurement improves by a factor of ~1.7 at low redshift (consistent with previous results), and the variance ({\sigma}^2) shows a change of up to 18% between optimal and sub-optimal cases (note, however, that these discrepancies may depend in detail on the procedure used to isolate the BAO signal). We finally discuss the impact of this work on current data analyses.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, MNRAS accepte

Baryon oscillations in galaxy and matter power-spectrum covariance matrices

We investigate large-amplitude baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO's) in off-diagonal entries of cosmological power-spectrum covariance matrices. These covariance-matrix BAO's describe the increased attenuation of power-spectrum BAO's caused by upward fluctuations in large-scale power. We derive an analytic approximation to covariance-matrix entries in the BAO regime, and check the analytical predictions using N-body simulations. These BAO's look much stronger than the BAO's in the power spectrum, but seem detectable only at about a one-sigma level in gigaparsec-scale galaxy surveys. In estimating cosmological parameters using matter or galaxy power spectra, including the covariance-matrix BAO's can have a several-percent effect on error-bar widths for some parameters directly related to the BAO's, such as the baryon fraction. Also, we find that including the numerous galaxies in small haloes in a survey can reduce error bars in these cosmological parameters more than the simple reduction in shot noise might suggest.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, accepted to MNRAS. Minor changes to match accepted version. CosmoPy (Cosmological Python) code available at http://ifa.hawaii.edu/cosmopy

Simulations of Wide-Field Weak Lensing Surveys I: Basic Statistics and Non-Gaussian Effects

We study the lensing convergence power spectrum and its covariance for a standard LCDM cosmology. We run 400 cosmological N-body simulations and use the outputs to perform a total of 1000 independent ray-tracing simulations. We compare the simulation results with analytic model predictions. The semi-analytic model based on Smith et al.(2003) fitting formula underestimates the convergence power by ~30% at arc-minute angular scales. For the convergence power spectrum covariance, the halo model reproduces the simulation results remarkably well over a wide range of angular scales and source redshifts. The dominant contribution at small angular scales comes from the sample variance due to the number fluctuations of halos in a finite survey volume. The signal-to-noise ratio for the convergence power spectrum is degraded by the non-Gaussian covariances by up to a factor 5 for a weak lensing survey to z_s ~1. The probability distribution of the convergence power spectrum estimators, among the realizations, is well approximated by a chi-square distribution with broadened variance given by the non-Gaussian covariance, but has a larger positive tail. The skewness and kurtosis have non-negligible values especially for a shallow survey. We argue that a prior knowledge on the full distribution may be needed to obtain an unbiased estimate on the ensemble averaged band power at each angular scale from a finite volume survey.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Corrected typo in the equation of survey window function below Equation (18). The results unchange

The Conclusion in Which Nothingness is Concluded

Samuel Johnson’s The History of Rasselas, Prince of Abyssinia is ironically most often classified as an “oriental philosophic tale,” but is rarely analyzed from the point of view of oriental philosophy. Although Buddhism’s ambiguities, inwardness, and nothingness, provoke anxiety in Western critique, Johnson’s The History of Rasselas, Prince of Abyssinia does something unique from eighteenth-century British thought in that it disavows this Buddaphobia by actively employing a similar line of thought. Through the lens of a Buddhist framework many of the text’s renownedly gloomy implications, in regard to its circular structure and inconclusiveness, are freed from the great sludge of nihilism that has built up on its didactic purpose; consequently, a Buddhist perspective begins to reveal how contrary to enlightenment ideals, a lack of absolute truth allows for greater meaning. Timothy Morton\u27s essay Buddaphobia explores The Middle Way Buddhist philosophy by Nāgārjuna and its concept of meontic nothingness which I will apply to Rasselas for the purposes of bridging its philosophical gaps between Western and Eastern philosophy as well as understanding the circular tendencies of the text. Both Buddhism and Rasselas share the question of desire and the suffering that results from its wheel of temporary pleasures. I will be investigating the instances in which the philosophy Johnson has imbued the text with and Buddhism can inform each other on the matter and in which areas they conflict. By applying an eastern stream of thought to Rasselas I do not mean to propose Buddhism as the solution to happiness. However, I do mean to inspect how a Western conception of happiness is constructed and consequently how an Eastern perspective of it might add to its reality

Delensing Gravitational Wave Standard Sirens with Shear and Flexion Maps

Supermassive black hole binary systems (SMBHB) are standard sirens -- the gravitational wave analogue of standard candles -- and if discovered by gravitational wave detectors, they could be used as precise distance indicators. Unfortunately, gravitational lensing will randomly magnify SMBHB signals, seriously degrading any distance measurements. Using a weak lensing map of the SMBHB line of sight, we can estimate its magnification and thereby remove some uncertainty in its distance, a procedure we call "delensing." We find that delensing is significantly improved when galaxy shears are combined with flexion measurements, which reduce small-scale noise in reconstructed magnification maps. Under a Gaussian approximation, we estimate that delensing with a 2D mosaic image from an Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) could reduce distance errors by about 30-40% for a SMBHB at z=2. Including an additional wide shear map from a space survey telescope could reduce distance errors by 50%. Such improvement would make SMBHBs considerably more valuable as cosmological distance probes or as a fully independent check on existing probes.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted to MNRA