Assessment of Policy Instruments Toward a Sustainable Traffic System -A backcasting approach for Stockhom 2030

Finding strategies for preventing the process of global warming is growing urgent. Our intention is to highlight the future requirements and expectations on transport related sustainability measures (e.g. mobility management services, road tolls, CO2-taxes and renewable fuel systems) assisting the reaching of a long-term sustainability target of greenhouse gas emissions at the year 2030. We will employ the transport demand model SAMPERS and the traffic assignment model EMME/2 in order to investigate the effect from specific changes to the traffic network of Stockholm 2030, e.g. the environmental and socioeconomic impact from reduced number of commute trips, reduced car ownership, and new price structures and restrictions on private vehicle travel. In connection to this, we also quantify negative side effects (so-called rebound effects) coupled to efficiencies in the traffic network. We use an appraisal framework, influenced by backcasting, in order to assess the impact from the specific policies in relation to the United Nation’s (IPCC) requirements for a sustainable level of CO2-emissions. The findings from this study point at the inevitable need for at least a 50% renewable fuel mix in the traffic system if reaching the target 2030. Single-handedly, travel demand measures are insufficient to accomplish the CO2-emission target for 2030. Nevertheless, reducing traffic volumes by just a few percent might contribute to savings in emission costs, accident costs and aggregate travel time costs in the traffic system. Such measures are needed in order to mitigate the transition from fossil- to renewable fuels.

Assessment of Policy Instruments Toward a Sustainable Traffic System -A backcasting approach for Stockhom 2030

Finding strategies for preventing the process of global warming is growing urgent. Our intention is to highlight the future requirements and expectations on transport related sustainability measures (e.g. mobility management services, road tolls, CO2-taxes and renewable fuel systems) assisting the reaching of a long-term sustainability target of greenhouse gas emissions at the year 2030. We will employ the transport demand model SAMPERS and the traffic assignment model EMME/2 in order to investigate the effect from specific changes to the traffic network of Stockholm 2030, e.g. the environmental and socioeconomic impact from reduced number of commute trips, reduced car ownership, and new price structures and restrictions on private vehicle travel. In connection to this, we also quantify negative side effects (so-called rebound effects) coupled to efficiencies in the traffic network. We use an appraisal framework, influenced by backcasting, in order to assess the impact from the specific policies in relation to the United Nation's (IPCC) requirements for a sustainable level of CO2-emissions. The findings from this study point at the inevitable need for at least a 50% renewable fuel mix in the traffic system if reaching the target 2030. Single-handedly, travel demand measures are insufficient to accomplish the CO2-emission target for 2030. Nevertheless, reducing traffic volumes by just a few percent might contribute to savings in emission costs, accident costs and aggregate travel time costs in the traffic system. Such measures are needed in order to mitigate the transition from fossil- to renewable fuels

Utveckling av metod och verktyg för målorienterade åtgärdsvalsstudier i transportsystemet

Åtgärdsvalsstudier är ett koncept som vuxit fram med syfte att skapa genomtänkta beslut och konsensus kring alternativa effektiviseringar och förbättringar av tillgänglighet i transportsystemet genom en dialogprocess mellan Trafikverket, kollektivtrafiken, kommuner, och andra trafikhuvudmän. Denna studie syftar till att skapa ett mer strukturerat arbetssätt för en tydligare koppling mellan åtgärdsvalsstudier och de nationella transportpolitiska utsläppsmålen som Trafikverket och Transportstyrelsen ansvarar att rapportera för. I dagsläget levererar landsting och kommuner statusrapporteringar på tre indikatorer för sitt regionala/lokala område. Dessa utgörs av växthusgasutsläpp, trafikarbete och antal resor med alternativa färdslag. Utgångsläget för denna studie är att skapa tydligt kvantifierbara målscenarier, baserade på dessa tre indikatorer för att redan i trafikplaneringsprocessens initiala skede utgå från dessa som prioriteringsunderlag. Den så kallade CERO-metodiken (www.cero.nu) som framställts genom en doktorsavhandling på KTH, har utvecklat system för denna typ av målorienterad transportplanering på organisatorisk nivå (företag, kommuner, landsting, andra organisationer). Genom detta genom detta forskningsprojekt vidareutvecklas CERO-metodiken till att hantera scenariogenerering och framställning av handlingsplaner på regional och lokal nivå. Ett simulatorverktyg för generering av transportvolymer till målpunkter vidareutvecklas även genom projektet för att stödja de kvantitativa prioriteringsunderlagen vid utformning av målscenarierna.Utveckling av process och verktyg för åtgärdsvalsstudier samt tillägg Målorienterat processtöd för åtgärdsvalsstudie

Backcasting and econometrics for sustainable planning : information technology and individual preferences of travel

This paper develops a framework, building on backcasting from sustainable outcomes, or more sustainable outcomes, in combination with econometric modelling to arrive at the outcomes. To reach long-term successful objectives by introducing new transport alternatives or services, econometric modelling is suggested as a suitable tool for investigating the presumptive behaviour of key-players. In the need for deriving individual preferences, behavioural modelling can be applied as an essential "pathfinder" in the backcasting framework. The framework is discussed in relation to an office district outside Stockholm, where IT-companies provide efficient transport alternatives for their employees. The long-term vision among the leaders of the companies is to achieve an improved environmental profile, in parallel with reduced travel costs and improved working conditions for the employees, by offering alternatives to private car, taxi and long-distance travel.</p

Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies

Globally, the transport system faces a paradigmatic shift where, in addition to increased local traffic problems, climate change and depletion of fossil oil reserves will foster a successive transition to renewable fuels and a need for more resource-efficient mobility management and communication alternatives. Foresighted countries, cities or companies taking the lead in adapting to these tougher conditions might well not only solve those problems, but also turn the problems into business advantages. This thesis is based on six studies that attempt to develop future strategies based on rigorous principled emission and energy efficiency targets and to modulate the impact of travel policies, technical components and behaviours in economically advantageous ways. The modelling frameworks developed throughout the thesis build on a target-orientated approach called backcasting, where the following general components are applied: (1) target description at a conceptual level i.e. the potential for sustainable energy systems, emissions, costs, behavioural patterns, preferences, etc.; (2) mapping of the current situation in relation to target description; and (3) modelling of alternative sets of policies, technologies, behaviours and economic prerequisites to arrive at target achievement. Sustainable travel strategies are analysed from two main viewpoints. The first four studies focus on company travel planning, where behavioural modelling proved to be an important tool for deriving targetorientated travel policies consistent with employee preferences. The latter two studies focus on strategies and preconditions to meet future emission targets and energy efficiency requirements at a macroscopic regional level by 2030. Backcasting’s role as a generic methodology for effective strategic planning is discussed.QC 2010081

Engaging private actors in transport planning to achieve future emission targets – upscaling the Climate and Economic Research in Organisations (CERO) process to regional perspectives

Sustainable transport analyses are traditionally carried out from two fundamentally different perspectives: a) Internal travel analysis at an organisational level, often as part of corporate environmental audits to develop internal travel policies and company travel plans. b) Macro analysis of the transport system at large, in order to assess traffic flows in relation to alternative infrastructure measures and policy actions at regional level. From a holistic global perspective, both these subsystems should share common visions and long-term targets for sustainability. This would require derivation of processes and tools by which subsystems at different scales could be interlinked and informed by global principles for sustainability. A key component of such work would be to synthesise approaches (a) and (b) in order to facilitate mutual understanding between private and public actors, and between public transport authorities governing the supply of transport services. At present there is rarely mutual understanding between these parties, which risks creating watertight bulkheads between users and providers in the transport system. This case study examined a local travel planning network in the largest business district of Sweden, Kista Science City (KSC), where (as in most larger urban business districts in the world) travel demand is likely to exceed the capacity of the transport system in the coming decade. To counteract this development, some major companies were invited to join the decision process in a joint venture with public authorities. In the project, a backcasting-orientated travel planning model was applied and refined for future monitoring of the process in a regional context. Key findings were: Identification of motives for companies to engage in company travel planning. Demonstration of a need for construction of tangible target scenarios pinpointing the utility and benefits of target fulfilment from both a company and an employee perspective. The first follow-up results of Climate and Economic Research in Organisations (CERO) processes implemented in companies, which showed that emissions reduction targets were met (and even exceeded). Construction of a regional target scenario, consistent with the company-specific target scenarios, in order to obtain constructive and target-orientated stakeholder dialogue. Final selection of a regional action plan designed to meet the regional target scenario for KSC.</p

A Model for Climate Target-Oriented Planning and Monitoring of Corporate Travel

The objectives of this study are to (a) demonstrate the importance and motivation for large private companies taking action against climate change and (b) develop a backcasting-oriented framework for comprehensive and manageable corporate travel policies. The backcasting framework consists of four parts: (1) target description at a conceptual level; (2) mapping of the current status of the company regarding staff travel patterns and preferences, individual and collective emissions, and costs against the targets described; (3) a policy-oriented transformation of the backcasting target; and (4) alternative sets of company policies and strategies that would allow targets to be achieved. A detailed cost-benefit analysis is supplemented by statistical and econometric models that test employee acceptance of the different policy alternatives.</p

Utveckling av metod och verktyg för målorienterade åtgärdsvalsstudier i transportsystemet

Åtgärdsvalsstudier är ett koncept som vuxit fram med syfte att skapa genomtänkta beslut och konsensus kring alternativa effektiviseringar och förbättringar av tillgänglighet i transportsystemet genom en dialogprocess mellan Trafikverket, kollektivtrafiken, kommuner, och andra trafikhuvudmän. Denna studie syftar till att skapa ett mer strukturerat arbetssätt för en tydligare koppling mellan åtgärdsvalsstudier och de nationella transportpolitiska utsläppsmålen som Trafikverket och Transportstyrelsen ansvarar att rapportera för. I dagsläget levererar landsting och kommuner statusrapporteringar på tre indikatorer för sitt regionala/lokala område. Dessa utgörs av växthusgasutsläpp, trafikarbete och antal resor med alternativa färdslag. Utgångsläget för denna studie är att skapa tydligt kvantifierbara målscenarier, baserade på dessa tre indikatorer för att redan i trafikplaneringsprocessens initiala skede utgå från dessa som prioriteringsunderlag. Den så kallade CERO-metodiken (www.cero.nu) som framställts genom en doktorsavhandling på KTH, har utvecklat system för denna typ av målorienterad transportplanering på organisatorisk nivå (företag, kommuner, landsting, andra organisationer). Genom detta genom detta forskningsprojekt vidareutvecklas CERO-metodiken till att hantera scenariogenerering och framställning av handlingsplaner på regional och lokal nivå. Ett simulatorverktyg för generering av transportvolymer till målpunkter vidareutvecklas även genom projektet för att stödja de kvantitativa prioriteringsunderlagen vid utformning av målscenarierna.Utveckling av process och verktyg för åtgärdsvalsstudier samt tillägg Målorienterat processtöd för åtgärdsvalsstudie

Company incentives and individual preferences towards sustainable travel alternatives

Since the acceptance of changing travel habits is a matterof subjective preferences and individual values, the questionof how to make individuals voluntarily choose new travelalternatives is not straightforward. In this study we focus onan office district called Nacka Strand outside Stockholm, wherecompanies tried to implement new and more efficientalternatives to personal travel. The aim is to reduce bothemissions and costs from personal travel, in parallel with anincreased utility among the employees. The idea is that theemployees shall be encouraged, not enforced to change travelpatterns. We start out from the research question of what factorsaffect individual preferences due to various incentives in thechoice between present and new alternatives. From thisperspective we derive secondary environmental and monetarygains possible to obtain. Examples of such incentives would bee.g. attractive IT-conveniences or monetary bonuses stimulatingthe use of the more efficient alternatives. To analyticallyanalyse the impact from incentives on individual behaviour weuse the toolbox of micro econometric modelling, in which theaim is to test the employees\u92criteria for changingbehaviour, as dependent on certain explicit conditions. Themodels provide information of ways to reach environmental andeconomical goals without deteriorating the employees\u92working conditions