Climate change vulnerability for species—Assessing the assessments

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available

Status of Grauer’s Gorilla and Chimpanzees in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: Historical and Current Distribution and Abundance

This report summarises the current state of knowledge on the distribution, densities and trends in abundance of Grauer’s gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) and the eastern chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It summarises the historical knowledge about the distribution of Grauer’s gorilla across its range and describes the development of a Conservation Action Plan (CAP) for these two ape species. A result of this CAP was funding to undertake an assessment of the current status of these apes across the range of Grauer’s gorilla. Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Fauna & Flora International (FFI) worked with Institut Congolais pour la Conservation de la Nature (ICCN) and the Reserve managers of the Reserve des Gorilles de Punia (RGPU) and local communities to undertake surveys across the region using a variety of methods: line transects, recces along paths and patrol data from data collected by rangers while on patrol and entered into SMART software

Catastrophic Decline of World's Largest Primate: 80% Loss of Grauer's Gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) Population Justifies Critically Endangered Status

Grauer's gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World's largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer's gorilla's range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer's gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi- Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82-100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km2. We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer's gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

Classification of donkey systems in Ethiopia

Working donkeys play a critical role in transportation, agriculture and household resilience in low- and middle-income countries. Other animals that are kept for production purposes, such as cattle, are often grouped into broad production system classes, such as dairy or pastoral, for comparison between and better understanding of the needs and outputs of animals within specific sectors. Despite the importance of working donkeys for sustaining livelihoods there are no systematic classifications of these populations. The aim of this study was to classify and characterise donkey systems in Ethiopia using household-level questionnaire data which included donkey ownership, husbandry, use and local environment data, through multiple factor and hierarchical cluster analysis. Household questionnaire data from 241 donkey-owning households in three districts of Ethiopia were used. Three distinct clusters of donkey ownership were identified: ‘Domestic-Pastoral’; ‘Domestic-Agricultural’ and ‘Commercial’. Differences between systems are primarily influenced by donkey purpose, environmental (agro-ecological) factors, and husbandry practices. Constraints associated with donkey ownership varied across clusters: households in the commercial system reported higher incidence of injuries and welfare concerns, in the pastoral system the main constraints were drought and feed shortage, and domestic-agricultural households reported infectious diseases as the main challenge. This new classification of donkey systems provides a framework for analysing donkey health and welfare data, enabling more context-specific needs assessments and facilitating the design of targeted interventions to improve equid health and household livelihoods

Performance of protected areas in conserving African elephants

Protected areas have been gazetted to protect natural resources and biodiversity, but evaluations of effectiveness rarely include measures of species population change. We compiled annual site-level spending and elephant population data for 102 protected areas conserving either savannah (Loxodonta africana) or forest (Loxodonta cyclotis) elephants, which showed a median annual population decline of −0.78% across the protected areas. Site-level population change was strongly associated with funding and government effectiveness. Annual funding deficits occurred in 78% of the protected areas, and when comparing necessary levels of annual spend to stabilize elephant populations, we estimate a US$1.5 billion annual funding deficit across all the protected areas. While financial investment can improve elephant conservation outcomes, there is still a need to identify where and how to best finance elephant poaching interventions, requiring a global commitment to improve the socioeconomic impacts of protected areas on local communities and reduce ivory demand.</p

Performance of protected areas in conserving African elephants

DATA AVAILABITY STATEMENT: The African Elephant Database (https:// africanelephantdatabase.org/) contains the latest elephant population data for each protected area. Data on spend at sites are sensitive and the authors relied on personal contacts to obtain this information for many of the protected areas. We can provide these data on request but cannot make them widely available.Protected areas have been gazetted to protect natural resources and biodiversity, but evaluations of effectiveness rarely include measures of species population change. We compiled annual site-level spending and elephant population data for 102 protected areas conserving either savannah (Loxodonta africana) or forest (Loxodonta cyclotis) elephants, which showed a median annual population decline of −0.78% across the protected areas. Site-level population change was strongly associated with funding and government effectiveness. Annual funding deficits occurred in 78% of the protected areas, and when comparing necessary levels of annual spend to stabilize elephant populations, we estimate a US$1.5 billion annual funding deficit across all the protected areas. While financial investment can improve elephant conservation outcomes, there is still a need to identify where and how to best finance elephant poaching interventions, requiring a global commitment to improve the socioeconomic impacts of protected areas on local communities and reduce ivory demand.The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Danish Independent Research council.https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/1755263xZoology and EntomologySDG-15:Life on landSDG-17:Partnerships for the goal

Multi-taxa spatial conservation planning reveals similar priorities between taxa and improved protected area representation with climate change

Protected area (PA) networks have in the past been constructed to include all major habitats, but have often been developed through consideration of only a few indicator taxa or across restricted areas, and rarely account for global climate change. Systematic conservation planning (SCP) aims to improve the efficiency of biodiversity conservation, particularly when addressing internationally agreed protection targets. We apply SCP in Great Britain (GB) using the widest taxonomic coverage to date (4,447 species), compare spatial prioritisation results across 18 taxa and use projected future (2080) distributions to assess the potential impact of climate change on PA network effectiveness. Priority conservation areas were similar among multiple taxa, despite considerable differences in spatial species richness patterns; thus systematic prioritisations based on indicator taxa for which data are widely available are still useful for conservation planning. We found that increasing the number of protected hectads by 2% (to reach the 2020 17% Aichi target) could have a disproportionate positive effect on species protected, with an increase of up to 17% for some taxa. The PA network in GB currently under-represents priority species but, if the potential future distributions under climate change are realised, the proportion of species distributions protected by the current PA network may increase, because many PAs are in northern and higher altitude areas. Optimal locations for new PAs are particularly concentrated in southern and upland areas of GB. This application of SCP shows how a small addition to an existing PA network could have disproportionate benefits for species conservation

Pathways of degradation in rangelands in Northern Tanzania show their loss of resistance, but potential for recovery

Semiarid rangelands are identified as at high risk of degradation due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Through tracking timelines of degradation we aimed to identify whether degradation results from a loss of resistance to environmental shocks, or loss of recovery, both of which are important prerequisites for restoration. Here we combined extensive field surveys with remote sensing data to explore whether long-term changes in grazing potential demonstrate loss of resistance (ability to maintain function despite pressure) or loss of recovery (ability to recover following shocks). To monitor degradation, we created a bare ground index: a measure of grazeable vegetation cover visible in satellite imagery, allowing for machine learning based image classification. We found that locations that ended up the most degraded tended to decline in condition more during years of widespread degradation but maintained their recovery potential. These results suggest that resilience in rangelands is lost through declines in resistance, rather than loss of recovery potential. We show that the long-term rate of degradation correlates negatively with rainfall and positively with human population and livestock density, and conclude that sensitive land and grazing management could enable restoration of degraded landscapes, given their retained ability to recover

Global extent and drivers of mammal population declines in protected areas under illegal hunting pressure

Illegal hunting is a persistent problem in many protected areas, but an overview of the extent of this problem and its impact on wildlife is lacking. We reviewed 40 years (1980–2020) of global research to examine the spatial distribution of research and socio-ecological factors influencing population decline within protected areas under illegal hunting pressure. From 81 papers reporting 988 species/site combinations, 294 mammal species were reported to have been illegally hunted from 155 protected areas across 48 countries. Research in illegal hunting has increased substantially during the review period and showed biases towards strictly protected areas and the African continent. Population declines were most frequent in countries with a low human development index, particularly in strict protected areas and for species with a body mass over 100 kg. Our results provide evidence that illegal hunting is most likely to cause declines of large-bodied species in protected areas of resource-poor countries regardless of protected area conservation status. Given the growing pressures of illegal hunting, increased investments in people’s development and additional conservation efforts such as improving anti-poaching strategies and conservation resources in terms of improving funding and personnel directed at this problem are a growing priority