Somalia and the Pirates. ESF Working Paper No. 33, 18 December 2009

Piracy is defined by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies as an "act of boarding or attempting to board any ship with the apparent intent to commit theft or any other crime and with the apparent intent or capability to use force in furtherance of that act." And it is estimated that from 1995 to 2009, around 730 persons were killed or are presumed dead, approximately 3,850 seafarers were held hostage, around 230 were kidnapped and ransomed, nearly 800 were seriously injured and hundreds more were threatened with guns and knives. (See paper by Rob de Wijk). In November 2009, CEPS held a European Security Forum seminar, in collaboration with the Institute for Strategic Studies, the Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, to focus on the issue of Somalia and the Pirates, chaired by Francois Heisbourg. Four eminent specialists in this field: David Anderson, Rob de Wijk, Steven Haines and Jonathon Stevenson looked at the links with Somalia, and the historical, legal, political and security dimensions of the troubling success of piracy in today’s world. Their conclusions and recommendations for future action are brought together in this ESF 33 Working Paper

UK national ecosystem assessment follow-on: cultural ecosystem services and indicators

No description supplie

Investigation of a Neuronal Nitric Oxide Synthase Gene (NOS1) Polymorphism in a Multiple Sclerosis Population

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurological disease characterized by demyelination associated with infiltrating white blood cells in the central nervous system (CNS). Nitric oxide synthases (NOS) are a family of enzymes that control the production of nitric oxide. It is possible that neuronal NOS could be involved in MS pathophysiology and hence the nNOS gene is a potential candidate for involvement in disease susceptibility. The aim of this study was to determine whether allelic variation at the nNOS gene locus is associated with MS in an Australian cohort. DNA samples obtained from a Caucasian Australian population affected with MS and an unaffected control population, matched for gender, age and ethnicity, were genotyped for a microsatellite polymorphism in the promoter region of the nNOS gene. Allele frequencies were compared using chi-squared based statistical analyses with significance tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Allelic analysis of MS cases and controls produced a chi-squared value of 5.63 with simulated P=0.96 (OR(max)=1.41, 95% CI: 0.926-2.15). Similarly, a Mann-Whitney U analysis gave a non-significant P-value of 0.377 for allele distribution. No differences in allele frequencies were observed for gender or clinical course subtype (P>0.05). Statistical analysis indicated that there is no association of this nNOS variant and MS and hence the gene does not appear to play a genetically significant role in disease susceptibility

The WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey: galaxy evolution at 0.25 ≤ z ≤ 0.75 using the second red-sequence cluster survey

We study the evolution of galaxy populations around the spectroscopic WiggleZ sample of star-forming galaxies at 0.2

Characteristics of Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation Lesion Formation in Real Time In Vivo Using Near Field Ultrasound Imaging

Objectives Visualizing myocardium with near field ultrasound (NFUS) transducers in the tip of the catheter might provide an image of the evolving pathological lesion during energy delivery. BackgroundRadiofrequency (RF) catheter ablation has been effective in arrhythmia treatment, but no technology has allowed lesion formation to be visualized in real time in vivo. Methods RF catheter ablations were performed in vivo with the goal to create transmural atrial lesions and large ventricular lesions. RF lesion formation was imaged in real time using M-mode, tissue Doppler, and strain rate information from the NFUS open irrigated RF ablation catheter incorporating 4 ultrasound transducers (1 axial and 3 radial), and growth kinetics were analyzed. Nineteen dogs underwent ablation in the right and left atria (n = 185), right ventricle (n = 67), and left ventricle (n = 66). Lesions were echolucent with tissue strain rate by NFUS. Results Lesion growth frequently progressed from epicardium to endocardium in thin-walled tissue. The half time of lesion growth was 5.5 ± 2.8 s in thin-walled and 9.7 ± 4.3 s in thick-walled tissue. Latency of lesion onset was seen in 57% of lesions ranging from 1 to 63.8 s. Tissue edema (median 25% increased wall thickness) formed immediately upon lesion formation in 83%, and intramyocardial steam was seen in 71% of cases. Conclusions NFUS was effective in imaging RF catheter ablation lesion formation in real time. It was useful in assessing the dynamics of lesion growth and could visualize impending steam pops. It may be a useful technology to improve both safety and efficacy of RF catheter ablation

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Combining policy analyses, exploratory scenarios, and integrated modelling to assess land use policy options

Scenario-based approaches provide decision makers with accessible storylines of potential future changes. The parameterisation of such storylines as input variables for integrated assessment models allows using models as a test bed for assessing the effects of alternative land use policy options in different scenarios. However, the potential of this kind of policy-screening analysis can be further improved by assessing the institutional compatibility of the policy options under review. The aim of this paper is to explore the added value of combining institutions-oriented policy analyses with scenario-modelling approaches for improved assessments of EU land use policy options. We describe an expert-based, stepwise process to combine four scenario storylines and two integrated assessment model approaches (CLIMSAVE & IMAGE-GLOBIO) with a procedure for institutional compatibility assessment. Among the subsidies we assessed were those for technology-driven intensification of agricultural production, which would contribute to decreasing demand for cropland across a range of scenarios. In regionalised policy designs, they also contribute to ecological effectiveness, and higher costs of governing. Subsidies to promote biomass production can have negative effects on ecosystems including land conversion, conversion of grassland into cropland as well as conversion of natural forests into managed forests. These effects can to some extent be mitigated by careful policy design which considers the institutional context and features cross-sectoral coordination. An integrated Ecosystem Services Framework policy could accommodate regionalised policy designs and cross-sectoral coordination, however, it can operate only under specific circumstances and needs particular efforts. Rural development approaches are another alternative which feature expansion of cropland by means of a large-scale, bottom-up transformation based on voluntary changes in behaviour, flexibility, participation, and local and regional collaboration. Apart from a vast number of interdisciplinary lessons learned, we also gained insights from the science-policy interface. A weak EU appeared as a plausible scenario from a scientific perspective, given the current political environment. However, it appreaded to be unacceptable at EU level policy making. We decided to maintain scientific independence and looked at policy options also in the context of a weak EU yielding environmentally beneficial opportunities for regional decision making at the expense of relevance of our scenarios to EU level policy makers

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach