Chronic undernutrition and adolescent school performance in central Ethiopia

Chronic undernutrition among adolescents in developing countries has been identified as a major public health issue. Previous research has found associations between chronic undernutrition and academic performance outcomes in adolescents. There isneed for localized research focusing on nutritional status and its association with educational outcomes among adolescents in different areas of Ethiopia. The purpose of this study was to examine whether chronic undernutrition (stunting) in adolescents inEthiopia was correlated with various school performance outcomes. This study was a school-based cross-sectional study conducted in North Shewa zone, Ethiopia. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire. The researchers conductedmultivariable linear regression analyses to investigate the relationship between stunting and four school performance outcomes, which included grade 8 Ministry exam score, all-subjects average score, English score, and Math score. The prevalence of stunting in this sample was 11%. After adjusting for all other variables in the model, stunting was positively associated with the grade eight Ministry exam score (β = -4.96; 95% [CI -7.68, -2.25]; p < 0.001). In the multivariate analyses, sex (being female) was significantly associated with the grade eight Ministry exam score (β = -2.08; 95% CI [-3.81, -0.35]; p = 0.019 ), the all-subjects average score (β = -3.97; 95% CI [-5.51, -2.43]; p < 0.001), English score (β = -3.72; 95% CI [-5.60, -1.84]; p < 0 .001), and Math score (β = -4.87; 95% CI [-7.02, -2.72]; p < 0.001). Residence (living in a rural area) was significantly associated with all-subjects average score (β = -3.93; 95% CI [- 5.81, -2.06]; p < 0.001), English score (β = -2.65; 95% CI [-4.94, -0.35]; p = 0.024), and Math score (β = -3.86; 95% CI [-6.50, -1.22]; p = 0.004). Maternal education (grade 1-8) was significantly associated with English score (β = 5.46; 95% CI [1.31, 9.62]; p = 0.010) and Math score (β = 4.78; 95% CI [0.03, 9.53]; p = 0.049). These findings indicate that further research focusing on adolescent chronic undernutrition and educational outcomes as well as why chronic undernutrition is associated with certain performance outcomes and not others is needed before definitive conclusions can be made. Positive changes in child growth later in a child’s life may have important implications for cognition

Chronic undernutrition and adolescent school performance in central Ethiopia

Chronic undernutrition among adolescents in developing countries has been identified as a major public health issue. Previous research has found associations between chronic undernutrition and academic performance outcomes in adolescents. There is need for localized research focusing on nutritional status and its association with educational outcomes among adolescents in different areas of Ethiopia. The purpose of this study was to examine whether chronic undernutrition (stunting) in adolescents in Ethiopia was correlated with various school performance outcomes. This study was a school-based cross-sectional study conducted in North Shewa zone, Ethiopia. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire. The researchers conducted multivariable linear regression analyses to investigate the relationship between stunting and four school performance outcomes, which included grade 8 Ministry exam score, all-subjects average score, English score, and Math score. The prevalence of stunting in this sample was 11%. After adjusting for all other variables in the model, stunting was positively associated with the grade eight Ministry exam score (β = -4.96; 95% [CI - 7.68, -2.25]; p < 0.001). In the multivariate analyses, sex (being female) was significantly associated with the grade eight Ministry exam score (β = -2.08; 95% CI [- 3.81, -0.35]; p = 0.019 ), the all-subjects average score (β = -3.97; 95% CI [-5.51, - 2.43]; p < 0.001), English score (β = -3.72; 95% CI [-5.60, -1.84]; p < 0 .001), and Math score (β = -4.87; 95% CI [-7.02, -2.72]; p < 0.001). Residence (living in a rural area) was significantly associated with all-subjects average score (β = -3.93; 95% CI [- 5.81, -2.06]; p < 0.001), English score (β = -2.65; 95% CI [-4.94, -0.35]; p = 0.024), and Math score (β = -3.86; 95% CI [-6.50, -1.22]; p = 0.004). Maternal education (grade 1-8) was significantly associated with English score (β = 5.46; 95% CI [1.31, 9.62]; p = 0.010) and Math score (β = 4.78; 95% CI [0.03, 9.53]; p = 0.049). These findings indicate that further research focusing on adolescent chronic undernutrition and educational outcomes as well as why chronic undernutrition is associated with certain performance outcomes and not others is needed before definitive conclusions can be made. Positive changes in child growth later in a child’s life may have important implications for cognition

Campylobacter colonization and undernutrition in infants in rural eastern Ethiopia - a longitudinal community-based birth cohort study.

Background: Campylobacter is associated with environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) and malnutrition in children. Campylobacter infection could be a linchpin between livestock fecal exposure and health outcomes in low-resource smallholder settings. Methods: We followed a birth cohort of 106 infants in rural smallholder households in eastern Ethiopia up to 13 months of age. We measured anthropometry, surveyed sociodemographic determinants, and collected stool and urine samples. A short survey was conducted during monthly visits, infant stool samples were collected, and Campylobacter spp. was quantified using genus-specific qPCR. In month 13, we collected stool and urine samples to assay for EED biomarkers. We employed regression analyses to assess the associations of household determinants with Campylobacter colonization, EED, and growth faltering. Results: The Campylobacter load in infant stools increased with age. The mean length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) decreased from −0.45 at 3–4 months of age to −2.06 at 13 months, while the prevalence of stunting increased from 3 to 51%. The prevalence of EED at 13 months of age was 56%. A higher Campylobacter load was associated with more frequent diarrhea. Prelacteal feeding significantly increased Campylobacter load in the first month of life. Over the whole follow-up period, Campylobacter load was increased by keeping chickens unconfined at home and unsanitary disposal of infant stools while decreased by mothers’ handwashing with soap. Longitudinally, Campylobacter load was positively associated with food insecurity, introduction of complementary foods, and raw milk consumption. There were no significant associations between Campylobacter load, EED, and LAZ. Conclusion: This study found that most determinants associated with increased Campylobacter infection were related to suboptimal feeding practices and hygiene. The findings related to livestock-associated risks were inconclusive. Although stunting, EED, and Campylobacter prevalence rates all increased to high levels by the end of the first year of life, no significant association between them was identified. While additional research is needed to investigate whether findings from this study are replicable in other populations, community efforts to improve infant and young child feeding practices and food hygiene, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) at the household level, could reduce (cross-)contamination at the point of exposure.fals

Prevalence and Load of the Campylobacter Genus in Infants and Associated Household Contacts in Rural Eastern Ethiopia: a Longitudinal Study from the Campylobacter Genomics and Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (CAGED) Project

In our previous cross-sectional study, multiple species of Campylobacter were detected (88%) in stool samples from children (12 to 14 months of age) in rural eastern Ethiopia. This study assessed the temporal fecal carriage of Campylobacter in infants and identified putative reservoirs associated with these infections in infants from the same region. The prevalence and load of Campylobacter were determined using genus-specific real-time PCR. Stool samples from 106 infants (n = 1,073) were collected monthly from birth until 376 days of age (DOA). Human stool samples (mothers and siblings), livestock feces (cattle, chickens, goats, and sheep), and environmental samples (soil and drinking water) from the 106 households were collected twice per household (n = 1,644). Campylobacter was most prevalent in livestock feces (goats, 99%; sheep, 98%; cattle, 99%; chickens, 93%), followed by human stool samples (siblings, 91%; mothers, 83%; infants, 64%) and environmental samples (soil, 58%; drinking water, 43%). The prevalence of Campylobacter in infant stool samples significantly increased with age, from 30% at 27 DOA to 89% at 360 DOA (1% increase/day in the odds of being colonized) (P < 0.001). The Campylobacter load increased linearly (P < 0.001) with age from 2.95 logs at 25 DOA to 4.13 logs at 360 DOA. Within a household, the Campylobacter load in infant stool samples was positively correlated with the load in mother stool samples (r2 = 0.18) and soil collected inside the house (r2 = 0.36), which were in turn both correlated with Campylobacter loads in chicken and cattle feces (0.60 < r2 < 0.63) (P < 0.01). In conclusion, a high proportion of infants are infected with Campylobacter in eastern Ethiopia, and contact with the mother and contaminated soil may be associated with early infections. IMPORTANCE A high Campylobacter prevalence during early childhood has been associated with environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) and stunting, especially in low-resource settings. Our previous study demonstrated that Campylobacter was frequently found (88%) in children from eastern Ethiopia; however, little is known about potential Campylobacter reservoirs and transmission pathways leading to infection of infants by Campylobacter during early growth. In the longitudinal study presented here, Campylobacter was frequently detected in infants within the 106 surveyed households from eastern Ethiopia, and the prevalence was age dependent. Furthermore, preliminary analyses highlighted the potential role of the mother, soil, and livestock in the transmission of Campylobacter to the infant. Further work will explore the species and genetic composition of Campylobacter in infants and putative reservoirs using PCR and whole-genome and metagenomic sequencing. The findings from these studies can lead to the development of interventions to minimize the risk of transmission of Campylobacter to infants and, potentially, EED and stunting.fals

The global burden of typhoid and parathypoid fevers: a systematic analyses for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them. Methods For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers. Findings Globally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·5–16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2–47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0–29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4–56·5), from 439·2 (376·7–507·7) per 100000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0–226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8–80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54–1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9–218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6–48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2–372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6–15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5–50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9–27·8) DALYs in 1990. Interpretation Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the diseas

Transmission pathways of Campylobacter jejuni between humans and livestock in rural Ethiopia are highly complex and interdependent

Background: Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli are the most common causes of bacterial enteritis worldwide whereas symptomatic and asymptomatic infections are associated with stunting in children in low- and middle-income countries. Little is known about their sources and transmission pathways in low- and middle-income countries, and particularly for infants and young children. We assessed the genomic diversity of C. jejuni in Eastern Ethiopia to determine the attribution of infections in infants under 1 year of age to livestock (chickens, cattle, goats and sheep) and other humans (siblings, mothers). Results: Among 287 C. jejuni isolates, 48 seven-gene sequence types (STs), including 11 previously unreported STs were identified. Within an ST, the core genome STs of multiple isolates differed in fewer than five alleles. Many of these isolates do not belong to the most common STs reported in high-resource settings, and of the six most common global STs, only ST50 was found in our study area. Isolates from the same infant sample were closely related, while those from consecutive infant samples often displayed different STs, suggesting rapid clearance and new infection. Four different attribution models using different genomic profiling methods, assumptions and estimation methods predicted that chickens are the primary reservoir for infant infections. Infections from chickens are transmitted with or without other humans (mothers, siblings) as intermediate sources. Model predictions differed in terms of the relative importance of cattle versus small ruminants as additional sources. Conclusions: The transmission pathways of C. jejuni in our study area are highly complex and interdependent. While chickens are the most important reservoir of C. jejuni, ruminant reservoirs also contribute to the infections. The currently nonculturable species Candidatus C. infans is also highly prevalent in infants and is likely anthroponotic. Efforts to reduce the colonization of infants with Campylobacter and ultimately stunting in low-resource settings are best aimed at protecting proximate sources such as caretakers’ hands, food and indoor soil through tight integration of the currently siloed domains of nutrition, food safety and water, sanitation and hygiene.fals

Burden of cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2005–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

Objectives: To estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 2005 and 2015. Methods: Vital registration system and cancer registry data from the EMR region were analyzed for 29 cancer groups in 22 EMR countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 methodology. Results: In 2015, cancer was responsible for 9.4% of all deaths and 5.1% of all DALYs. It accounted for 722,646 new cases, 379,093 deaths, and 11.7 million DALYs. Between 2005 and 2015, incident cases increased by 46%, deaths by 33%, and DALYs by 31%. The increase in cancer incidence was largely driven by population growth and population aging. Breast cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia were the most common cancers, while lung, breast, and stomach cancers caused most cancer deaths. Conclusions: Cancer is responsible for a substantial disease burden in the EMR, which is increasing. There is an urgent need to expand cancer prevention, screening, and awareness programs in EMR countries as well as to improve diagnosis, treatment, and palliative care services.The funding source played no role in the design of thestudy, the analysis and interpretation of data, and the writing of thepaper. GBD 2015 is funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the healthrelated SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years

BACKGROUND: Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS: In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030