Financial markets as a complex system: A short time scale perspective

In this paper we want to discuss macroscopic and microscopic properties of financial markets. By analyzing quantitatively a database consisting of 13 minute per minute recorded financial time series, we identify some macroscopic statistical properties of the corresponding markets, with a special emphasize on temporal correlations. These analysis are performed by using both linear and nonlinear tools. Multivariate correlations are also tested for, which leads to the identification of a global coupling mechanism between the considered stock markets. The application of a new formalism, called transfer entropy, allows to measure the information flow between some financial time series. We then discuss some key aspects of recent attemps to model financial markets from a microscopic point of view. One model, that is based on the simulation of the order book, is described more in detail, and the results of its practical implementation are presented. We finally address some general aspects of forecasting and modeling, in particular the role of stochastic and nonlinear deterministic processes. --time series analysis,econophysics,simulated markets,temporal correlations,high-frequency data

Do intensity targets control uncertainty better than quotas ? Conditions, calibrations, and caveats

Among policy instruments to control future greenhouse gas emissions, well-calibrated general intensity targets are known to lead to lower uncertainty on the amount of abatement than emissions quotas (Jotzo and Pezzey 2004). The authors test whether this result holds in a broader framework, and whether it applies to other policy-relevant variables as well. To do so, they provide a general representation of the uncertainty on future GDP, future business-as-usual emissions, and future abatement costs. The authors derive the variances of four variables, namely (effective) emissions, abatement effort, marginal abatement costs, and total abatement costs over GDP under a quota, a linear (LIT) and a general intensity target (GIT)-where the emissions ceiling is a power-law function of GDP. They confirm that GITs can yield a lower variance than a quota for marginal costs, but find that this is not true for total costs over GDP. Using economic and emissions scenarios and forecast errors of past projections, the authors estimate ranges of values for key parameters in their model. They find that quotas dominate LITs over most of this range, that calibrating GITs over this wide range is difficult, and that GITs would yield only modest reductions in uncertainty relative to quotas.Transport and Environment,Climate Change,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Economic Theory&Research,Energy and Environment

Creating an independent carbon authority might offer a solution for reforming the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme

The EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions using a ‘cap and trade’ system, in which levels of emissions are capped, but participants can buy and sell allowances as they require. Godefroy Grosjean and Robert Marschinski note that the system has been undermined due to the price of permits falling drastically since 2008. They provide an overview of some of the potential options available for reforming EU ETS, including the creation of an independent carbon authority analogous to an independent central bank

Portfolio Selection with Probabilistic Utility, Bayesian Statistics, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We propose a novel portfolio selection approach that manages to ease some of the problems that characterise standard expected utility maximisation. The optimal portfolio is no longer defined as the extremum of a suitably chosen utility function: the latter, instead, is reinterpreted as the logarithm of a probability distribution for optimal portfolios and the selected portfolio is defined as the expected value with respect to this distribution. A further theoretical aspect is the adoption of a Bayesian inference framework. We find that this approach has several attractive features, when comparing it to the standard maximisation of expected utility. We remove the over-pronounced sensitivity on external parameters that plague optimisation procedures and obtain a natural and self consistent way to account for uncertainty in knowledge and for personal views. We test the proposed method against traditional expected utility maximisation, using artificial data to simulate finite-sample behaviour, and find superior performance of our procedure. All numerical integrals are carried out by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, where the chains are generated by an adapted version of Hybrid Monte Carlo. We present numerical results for a portfolio of eight assets using historical time series running from January 1988 to January 2002.Bayesian Statistics, Estimation Risk, Finite Sample, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Portfolio Selection

EU Petroleum Refining Fitness Check: Impact of EU Legislation on Sectoral Economic Performance

This report presents the results of the quantitative assessment of the impact on the petroleum refining sector of legislative measures, identified in the process of European Commission's analysis and stakeholder consultations as being of significant relevance for petroleum refineries, and as such included in the mandate of the fitness check. This quantitative assessment took into account the impact of the legislation on costs and revenues of the EU petroleum refining industry and therefore on its capacity to remain internationally competitive. This analysis, mostly of a quantitative nature, was accompanied where possible and relevant by a qualitative assessment in accordance with the Commission's general approach to fitness checks . In particular, the report analysed how coherently and consistently the EU legislation, identified as relevant for the sector, works together, whether it is effective and efficient, and whether it is associated with excessive regulatory burdens, overlaps, gaps, inconsistencies or obsolete measures. Since this fitness check addressed a specific industry sector rather than a policy area, it had a specific focus on the cumulative impact, effectiveness, efficiency and coherence of the measures with respect to the oil refining sector. As stated in the mandate of the fitness check, the analysis in this report was retrospective and concentrated on the impact of the relevant legislation on the petroleum refining sector in the period between 2000 and 2012.JRC.J.5-Sustainable Production and Consumptio

The EU and Global Production Networks: The Length of Value Chains, Patterns and Dynamics of Industrial Ecosystems

This study investigates the evolution of global value chains (GVCs) and the strategic position of the EU27 in these GVCs and production networks. The analysis is based on input-output data from the FIGARO database that covers 2010-2019. An in-depth coverage is provided for four sectors (food, pharma, electronics, and vehicles) and three industrial ecosystems (energy intensive industries, mobility-transport-automotive, aerospace & defence). In terms of the main results, the overall share of foreign sourcing is quite stable over this period, and the length of GVCs remains roughly the same, so there is no sign of large-scale backshoring. The most important geographical shifts are the gains of China as a supplier in the value chains of EU27 and US. Europe’s strategic capacities, as measured by social network analysis indicators, are in mobility/automotive/transport, energy-intensive industries, and electronics and are towards the US and China. Strategic dependencies exist mainly towards China in electronics and energy-intensive industries. The analysis clearly shows the mutually dependent character of these relationships between the US, China, and the EU27.JRC.B.5 - Circular Economy and Industrial Leadershi

EU Exports to the United States: Effects on Employment

The present report contributes to the European Commission’s aim to gather comprehensive, reliable and comparable information to support evidence-based policymaking. The promotion of deeper commercial ties across the Atlantic is key in the European Commission’s strategy to create the conditions for a more dynamic and innovative European Union (EU) economy. This is why the 2015 Communication “Trade for all: Towards a more responsible trade and investment policy" points to the conclusion of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Agreement as a priority for the EU trade policy. Against this background this reports focuses on the contribution of transatlantic trade to the creation of job opportunities in Europe. For this it offers an ample set of indicators related to the quantification of the employment supported by EU exports to the United States (US). This work builds on the report “EU Export to the World: Effects on Employment and Income” that was published in June 2015 by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Directorate General for Trade. It is grounded on the same methodology and on the same World Input-Output Database (WIOD) database.JRC.B.5 - Circular Economy and Industrial Leadershi

Service Trade Restrictiveness and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Greenfield FDI in Business Services

We study the impact of service trade restrictions on bilateral greenfield FDI projects in four different business services sectors within a gravity model framework. Project level FDI data for 42 destination countries and up to 41 source countries spanning the years 2014 to 2018 is taken from the fDi Markets database, and restrictions from the OECD’s Service Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). Using a negative binomial estimator to explain the number of bilateral FDI projects, we find that service trade restrictions represent a significant barrier for greenfield FDI. In 3 out of 4 business services we obtain statistically significant evidence of a negative impact. Furthermore, the explanatory power of the models generally improves when using the sub-components of the STRI (restrictions to foreign entry, restrictions to the movement of people and other service trade restrictions), instead of the single aggregated index value. Based on the estimated impacts of the different restrictions, we carry out a series of simple simulations of how the number of expected FDI projects would increase in response to a hypothetical policy reform, and propose some sector-specific policy recommendations.JRC.B.5-Circular Economy and Industrial Leadershi

Circular Economy Strategies for the EU's Renewable Electricity Supply

Circular Economy Strategies for the EU's Renewable Electricity is a Joint Research Centre (JRC) exploratory study that provides a new perspective and new evidence on waste streams emerging from the transition to renewable electricity in the EU. The analysis supports the policy-making process and the JRC’s research on clean energy technologies implementing the European Green Deal, 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, Renewable Energy Directive, and the Waste Framework Directive. The report summarises the available information on the topic (technologies, waste streams, relevant literature and data, and technical, economic and information challenges). The clean energy technologies contain substances covered by the Critical Raw Materials Act; although the report does not focus on the permanent magnets and rare earth minerals associated with renewable energy, mostly wind turbines. Instead, the report highlights potential priority waste streams such as steel, cement and silicon. It provides a strategic assessment highlighting the rapid increase of wastes driven by the energy transition’s demand for technologies and infrastructure to replace fossil fuel infrastructures. Policy-relevant strategies to address gaps in regulation and research are highlighted. The report demonstrates that future waste volumes from solar and wind electricity generation in the EU are complex and will be generated in far greater quantities and at different rates than previously estimated. In addition, the report quantifies the waste footprint of decommissioning fossil fuel electricity plants.JRC.B.5 - Circular Economy and Sustainable Industr