Review of the quarter's economic trends [May 1983]

The one thing this recovery does not lack is confidence. Surveys of business opinion in all the major economies reveal a greater level of optimism amongst the business community than at any time since 1979. But confidence alone is not adequate for a sustained recovery though it certainly helps. As this brief analysis shows, two constraints stand in the way of a worldwide upturn: real interest rates remain high and the response of governments to any acceleration of inflation remains unknown. The downward rigidity of nominal interest rates bears witness to the financial markets' belief that present low levels of inflation are not sustainable, yet if governments react to the expected mild acceleration of inflation in the latter half of this year with the policies of the recent past no significant recovery is likely. Further analysis of UK and world economic data are provided

Review of the quarter's economic trends [February 1983]

Most forecasters, including the Treasury itself, predict a modest recovery in the economy this year. The emphasis is however on "modest", with predictions for GDP growth in the range of 1.5$-2.5%, and a further rise in unemployment. In the past month however there have been more favourable indications of renewed growth in the international economy, particularly in the United States, and this, combined with the recent depreciation of sterling, will improve the prospects for UK exports. Actual growth in GDP may be therefore nearer the upper end of the recent range of forecasts. Further analysis of the UK's economic prospects, as well as the world economy, are provided in this trend paper

The Scottish economy [November 1983]

This latest analysis reveals that there are a disturbing number of indications that the recovery in Scotland has not been as marked as that in Britain as a whole, and perhaps more worrying, that short term growth prospects in Scotland may already be flagging. Compared to the wealth of data available on the British economy, documentation of current economic activity in Scotland is sparse. There is therefore an inevitable tendency to assume that British experience will be broadly replicated at the Scottish level, even when no contemporaneous evidence is available to substantiate this assumption. Thus the recovery in the British economy over the past two years is widely if somewhat sceptically assumed to have had its counterpart in Scotland. The evidence to support this contention is becoming increasingly difficult to find. As this analysis reveals, this may in part reflect the fact that the manufacturing sector, which bore the brunt of the recession and which accounts for less than a quarter of total Scottish employment, tends to be the best documented. Recent trends in Scottish manufacturing are not encouraging. If these trends are representative of those in other sectors, recovery from recession has been sluggish in Scotland with short term prospects depending critically on an increased emphasis on export and investment demand during the second stage of the world recovery

The Scottish economy [August 1983]

Trends in the Scottish economy mirror those in Britain as a whole, though with allowance for sectoral and regional variations. The mood of cautious optimism detected amongst Scottish manufacturers in the April CBI Survey appears to have been sustained into July, though Scottish firms are now significantly less optimistic about their export prospects than they were in April. A larger proportion of Scottish firms appear to be working at acceptable levels of capacity utilisation than do their counterparts in Britain as a whole and the July Survey suggests a slowing down of the rate of job loss in Scottish industry over the remainder of this year. However there are no indications of widespread intentions to increase employment while the Survey suggests that the pace of output growth is unlikely to accelerate. No significant reduction in the underlying seasonally adjusted unemployment total is likely over the coming 9 months. We expect the unadjusted total excluding school-leavers to amount to 338,000 in December. In principle the number of unemployed school leavers should be considerably lower than in the recent past as the MSC's Youth Training Scheme comes into lull operation with a guarantee of a training place for all unemployed 16 year old school leavers and the likelihood or a place for any interested 17 year old

The Scottish economy [February 1983]

In three weeks' time the Chancellor of the Exchequer will introduce what is politically the most important budget of the last four years. This is so because it is the last budget before the next general election. It is therefore likely to be framed primarily with a view to realising political rather than economic objectives. Whatever the details of the budget, its impact on the economy may be limited. So far as a stimulus to aggregate demand is concerned, the Chancellor's options are extremely limited if he sticks to his previous plans. The difference between planned revenue and planned expenditure for 1983/84 is some £7 billion while the Chancellor's previously announced target for the PSBR in 1983/84 is that it should amount to £8 billion (2.75% of GDP). Thus the Chancellor has only about £1 billion to hand out if he is to keep to his original borrowing targets. However this is distributed, its effect as a boost to spending is almost inconsequential. It would cost £1.2 billion simply to index income tax allowances and thresholds. Yet to deviate further from his pre-set targets will be interpreted as a departure from the path of monetary orthodoxy, a course from which the government has firmly established its determination not to deviate. A modest improvement in output levels in Scottish manufacturing should be possible in the next few months. Following the very depressed levels of output in the final quarter of 1982, increased consumer demand and the increasing competitiveness of Scottish exports should engender a small improvement in business confidence. Prospects in the labour market will not improve. Further analysis and forecasting of Scottish economic conditions over the next quarter are provided

A review of the quarter's economic trends [August 1983]

Output is now increasing at a moderate pace in most of the major developed economies. In most cases the recovery is being sustained by buoyant consumers expenditure and by the end of stock liquidation. Of themselves these are inadequate to sustain a prolonged upturn in economic activity. The key to such an upturn is a revival in business investment

A review of the quarter's economic trends [November 1983]

The British economy is certain to continue growing throughout 1984. Little acceleration of the pace of growth seems likely and some slight deceleration seems the most probable outcome. Consumers' expenditure will be less buoyant than during the current year, with the resulting short fall only partially filled by rising exports and fixed investment. Little acceleration of either earnings or price inflation seems probable and those in employment will see further increases in their real disposable incomes. Corporate profits will continue to improve, facilitating investment and restraining money supply growth. World trade is likely to expand, taking British exports with it, while the somewhat slower pace of domestic growth will restrain imports. Unemployment is likely to remain close to present levels. This Commentary paper also provides an analysis of the current world economic trends

The Scottish economy [February 1984]

[Abstract unavailable

The world economy [February 1984]

[Abstract unavailable

The Scottish economy [May 1983]

As this analysis shows, the short-term outlook for the Scottish economy under present policy is for a moderate, but selective, improvement in output and for a continuing slow deterioration in labour market conditions. Manufacturing production is likely to grow by about 1%-1.5% between second quarter 1983 and second quarter 1984, leaving it still well short of 1979 levels. Productivity growth should continue, particularly in those firms now being able to make more adequate use of their capacity. Overtime hours should pick up, though at a far slower rate than between 1980 and 1982. With service sector employment stabalising and no great change in the labour market supply expected over the next twelve months, the expected rise in unemployment is of the same magnitude as the fall in manufacturing employment. Thus, though there will be some pickup in the output of goods and services from Scotland, the labour market will continue to languish with no substantive improvement likely over the next twelve to eighteen months