The Variability of Sagittarius A* at Centimeter Wavelengths

We present the results of a 3.3-year project to monitor the flux density of Sagittarius A* at 2.0, 1.3, and 0.7 cm with the VLA. The fully calibrated light curves for Sgr A* at all three wavelengths are presented. Typical errors in the flux density are 6.1%, 6.2%, and 9.2% at 2.0, 1.3, and 0.7 cm, respectively. There is preliminary evidence for a bimodal distribution of flux densities, which may indicate the existence of two distinct states of accretion onto the supermassive black hole. At 1.3 and 0.7 cm, there is a tail in the distribution towards high flux densities. Significant variability is detected at all three wavelengths, with the largest amplitude variations occurring at 0.7 cm. The rms deviation of the flux density of Sgr A* is 0.13, 0.16, and 0.21 Jy at 2.0, 1.3, and 0.7 cm, respectively. During much of this monitoring campaign, Sgr A* appeared to be relatively quiescent compared to results from previous campaigns. At no point during the monitoring campaign did the flux density of Sgr A* more than double its mean value. The mean spectral index of Sgr A* is alpha=0.20+/-0.01, with a standard deviation of 0.14. The spectral index appears to depend linearly on the observed flux density at 0.7 cm with a steeper index observed during outbursts. This correlation is consistent with the expectation for outbursts that are self-absorbed at wavelengths of 0.7 cm or longer and inconsistent with the effects of simple models for interstellar scintillation. Much of the variability of Sgr A*, including possible time lags between flux density changes at the different wavelengths, appears to occur on time scales less than the time resolution of our observations (8 days). Future observations should focus on the evolution of the flux density on these time scales.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in A

Downscaling Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature in the Midwestern USA: A Hybrid Empirical Approach

A new hybrid empirical downscaling technique is presented and applied to assess 21st century projections of maximum and minimum daily surface air temperatures (Tmax, Tmin) over the Midwestern USA. Our approach uses multiple linear regression to downscale the seasonal variations of the mean and standard deviation of daily Tmax and Tmin and the lag-0 and lag-1 correlations between daily Tmax and Tmin based on GCM simulation of the large-scale climate. These downscaled parameters are then used as inputs to a stochastic weather generator to produce time series of the daily Tmax and Tmin at 26 surface stations, in three time periods (1990–2001, 2020–2029, and 2050–2059) based on output from two coupled GCMs (HadCM3 and CGCM2). The new technique is demonstrated to exhibit better agreement with surface observations than a transfer-function approach, particularly with respect to temperature variability. Relative to 1990–2001 values, downscaled temperature projections for 2020–2029 indicate increases that range (across stations) from 0.0 K to 1.7 K (Tmax) and 0.0 K to 1.5 K (Tmin), while increases for 2050–2059 relative to 1990–2001 range from 1.4 K to 2.4 K (Tmax) and 0.8 to 2.2K (Tmin). Although the differences between GCMs demonstrate the continuing uncertainty of GCM-based regional climate downscaling, the inclusion of weather-generator parameters represents an advancement in downscaling methodology

Combining School and Family-Centered Interventions to Prevent Child Behavior Problems

This poster was presented at the American Psychological Association Conference in Boston, MA, in August 2008.Although school-wide PBS has been shown to reduce problem behaviors among students, approximately 15-20% of students are still in need of more selective interventions due to disruptive behavior problems. Given that both school (see Reinke & Herman, 2002) and family factors (Banks, et al., 1993) contribute to behavior problems in children, combining interventions that target both the school environment and family context is expected to further improve outcomes for those students. An ecological model combining PBS and the Family Check-up is proposed to prevent and reduce behavior problems in children

The Role of Prevention Science in Promoting Children's Mental Health: A Model for School Psychologists

This poster was presented at the American Psychological Association Conference in Boston, MA, in August 2008.Research has shown that early and focused prevention efforts can greatly reduce the costs, economic, psychological and social, borne by families and societies afflicted by poor mental health. With the help of a model program, the poster highlights school psychologists' involvement in prevention science activities to enhance children's mental health. Specifically, the Missouri Prevention Center exemplifies such a model and it is described in detail