Evaluation of ecosystem-based marine management strategies based on risk assessment

Abstract This study presents a comprehensive and generic framework that provides a typology for the identification and selection of consistently defined ecosystem-based management measures and allows a coherent evaluation of these measures based on their performance to achieve policy objectives. The performance is expressed in terms of their reduction of risk of an adverse impact on the marine ecosystem. This typology consists of two interlinked aspects of a measure, i.e. the “Focus” and the “Type”. The “Focus” is determined by the part of the impact chain (Driver–Pressure–State) the measure is supposed to mitigate or counteract. The “Type” represents the physical measure itself in terms of how it affects the impact chain directly; we distinguish Spatio-temporal distribution controls, Input and Output controls, Remediation and Restoration measures. The performance of these measures in terms of their reduction in risk of adverse impacts was assessed based on an explicit consideration of three time horizons: past, present and future. Application of the framework in an integrated management strategy evaluation of a suite of measures, shows that depending on the time horizon, different measures perform best. “Past” points to measures targeting persistent pressures (e.g. marine litter) from past activities. “Present” favors measures targeting a driver (e.g. fisheries) that has a high likelihood of causing adverse impacts. “Future” involves impacts that both have a high likelihood of an adverse impact, as well as a long time to return to pre-impacted condition after the implementation of appropriate management, e.g. those caused by permanent infrastructure or persistent pressures such as marine litter or specific types of pollution

Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses

Background: In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation. Results: For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses. Conclusion: The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics

Effects of ecstasy/polydrug use on memory for associative information

Rationale Associative learning underpins behaviours that are fundamental to the everyday functioning of the individual. Evidence pointing to learning deficits in recreational drug users merits further examination. Objectives A word pair learning task was administered to examine associative learning processes in ecstasy/polydrug users. Methods After assignment to either single or divided attention conditions, 44 ecstasy/polydrug users and 48 non-users were presented with 80 word pairs at encoding. Following this, four types of stimuli were presented at the recognition phase: the words as originally paired (old pairs), previously presented words in different pairings (conjunction pairs), old words paired with new words, and pairs of new words (not presented previously). The task was to identify which of the stimuli were intact old pairs. Results Ecstasy/ploydrug users produced significantly more false-positive responses overall compared to non-users. Increased long-term frequency of ecstasy use was positively associated with the propensity to produce false-positive responses. It was also associated with a more liberal signal detection theory decision criterion value. Measures of long term and recent cannabis use were also associated with these same word pair learning outcome measures. Conjunction word pairs, irrespective of drug use, generated the highest level of false-positive responses and significantly more false-positive responses were made in the divided attention condition compared to the single attention condition. Conclusions Overall, the results suggest that long-term ecstasy exposure may induce a deficit in associative learning and this may be in part a consequence of users adopting a more liberal decision criterion value

Role of the mesoamygdaloid dopamine projection in emotional learning

Amygdala dopamine is crucially involved in the acquisition of Pavlovian associations, as measured via conditioned approach to the location of the unconditioned stimulus (US). However, learning begins before skeletomotor output, so this study assessed whether amygdala dopamine is also involved in earlier 'emotional' learning. A variant of the conditioned reinforcement (CR) procedure was validated where training was restricted to curtail the development of selective conditioned approach to the US location, and effects of amygdala dopamine manipulations before training or later CR testing assessed. Experiment 1a presented a light paired (CS+ group) or unpaired (CS- group) with a US. There were 1, 2 or 10 sessions, 4 trials per session. Then, the US was removed, and two novel levers presented. One lever (CR+) presented the light, and lever pressing was recorded. Experiment 1b also included a tone stimulus. Experiment 2 applied intra-amygdala R(+) 7-OH-DPAT (10 nmol/1.0 A mu l/side) before two training sessions (Experiment 2a) or a CR session (Experiment 2b). For Experiments 1a and 1b, the CS+ group preferred the CR+ lever across all sessions. Conditioned alcove approach during 1 or 2 training sessions or associated CR tests was low and nonspecific. In Experiment 2a, R(+) 7-OH-DPAT before training greatly diminished lever pressing during a subsequent CR test, preferentially on the CR+ lever. For Experiment 2b, R(+) 7-OH-DPAT infusions before the CR test also reduced lever pressing. Manipulations of amygdala dopamine impact the earliest stage of learning in which emotional reactions may be most prevalent

The views of older women towards mammographic screening: a qualitative and quantitative study

Purpose: Mammographic screening has improved breast cancer survival in the screened age group. This improved survival has not been seen in older women (>70 years) where screening uptake is low. This study explores the views, knowledge and attitudes of older women towards screening. Methods: Women (>70) were interviewed about breast screening. Interview findings informed the development of a questionnaire which was sent to 1000 women (>70) to quantify their views regarding screening. Results: Twenty-six women were interviewed and a questionnaire designed. The questionnaire response rate was 48.3% (479/992). Over half (52.9%, 241/456) of respondents were unaware they could request mammography by voluntary self-referral and were unaware of how to arrange this. Most (81.5% 383/470) had not attended breast screening since turning 70. Most (75.6%, 343/454) felt screening was beneficial and would attend if invited. Most, (90.1%, 412/457) felt screening should be offered to all women regardless of age or health. Conclusions: There is a lack of knowledge about screening in older women. The majority felt that invitation to screening should be extended to the older age group regardless of age or health. The current under-utilised system of voluntary self referral is not supported by older women

Comparison of the CDC Backpack aspirator and the Prokopack aspirator for sampling indoor- and outdoor-resting mosquitoes in southern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Resting mosquitoes can easily be collected using an aspirating device. The most commonly used mechanical aspirator is the CDC Backpack aspirator. Recently, a simple, and low-cost aspirator called the Prokopack has been devised and proved to have comparable performance. The following study evaluates the Prokopack aspirator compared to the CDC backpack aspirator when sampling resting mosquitoes in rural Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud Mosquitoes were sampled in- and outdoors of 48 typical rural African households using both aspirators. The aspirators were rotated between collectors and households in a randomized, Latin Square design. Outdoor collections were performed using artificial resting places (large barrel and car tyre), underneath the outdoor kitchen (kibanda) roof and from a drop-net. Data were analysed with generalized linear models.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud The number of mosquitoes collected using the CDC Backpack and the Prokopack aspirator were not significantly different both in- and outdoors (indoors p = 0.735; large barrel p = 0.867; car tyre p = 0.418; kibanda p = 0.519). The Prokopack was superior for sampling of drop-nets due to its smaller size. The number mosquitoes collected per technician was more consistent when using the Prokopack aspirator. The Prokopack was more user-friendly: technicians preferred using the it over the CDC backpack aspirator as it weighs considerably less, retains its charge for longer and is easier to manoeuvre.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud The Prokopack proved in the field to be more advantageous than the CDC Backpack aspirator. It can be self assembled using simple, low-cost and easily attainable materials. This device is a useful tool for researchers or vector-control surveillance programs operating in rural Africa, as it is far simpler and quicker than traditional means of sampling resting mosquitoes. Further longitudinal evaluations of the Prokopack aspirator versus the gold standard pyrethrum spray catch for indoor resting catches are recommended

Microbiological, histological, immunological, and toxin response to antibiotic treatment in the mouse model of Mycobacterium ulcerans disease.

Mycobacterium ulcerans infection causes a neglected tropical disease known as Buruli ulcer that is now found in poor rural areas of West Africa in numbers that sometimes exceed those reported for another significant mycobacterial disease, leprosy, caused by M. leprae. Unique among mycobacterial diseases, M. ulcerans produces a plasmid-encoded toxin called mycolactone (ML), which is the principal virulence factor and destroys fat cells in subcutaneous tissue. Disease is typically first manifested by the appearance of a nodule that eventually ulcerates and the lesions may continue to spread over limbs or occasionally the trunk. The current standard treatment is 8 weeks of daily rifampin and injections of streptomycin (RS). The treatment kills bacilli and wounds gradually heal. Whether RS treatment actually stops mycolactone production before killing bacilli has been suggested by histopathological analyses of patient lesions. Using a mouse footpad model of M. ulcerans infection where the time of infection and development of lesions can be followed in a controlled manner before and after antibiotic treatment, we have evaluated the progress of infection by assessing bacterial numbers, mycolactone production, the immune response, and lesion histopathology at regular intervals after infection and after antibiotic therapy. We found that RS treatment rapidly reduced gross lesions, bacterial numbers, and ML production as assessed by cytotoxicity assays and mass spectrometric analysis. Histopathological analysis revealed that RS treatment maintained the association of the bacilli with (or within) host cells where they were destroyed whereas lack of treatment resulted in extracellular infection, destruction of host cells, and ultimately lesion ulceration. We propose that RS treatment promotes healing in the host by blocking mycolactone production, which favors the survival of host cells, and by killing M. ulcerans bacilli

Oil elite networks in a transforming global oil market

This article analyses oil elite formation in light of the wider transformation that is taking place in the global oil order due to the rise of powers from the Global South, including Russia: in particular, the expansion and integration of the state-owned oil companies into the global oil market. This is done by analysing the networks that the directors of the world's largest oil companies create through their affiliations with a) other corporations, b) policy planning bodies and c) with the state. The most important finding is that the increased cooperation between the Western private oil companies and the non-Western state-owned oil companies has not yet translated into increased integration between their respective elite networks. It is argued that this indicates we are witnessing a transition towards a more multi-polar global oil order that increasingly needs to take into account the rising powers of the Global South. © The Author(s) 2012

Running Gauge Coupling in Asymptotically Safe Quantum Gravity

We investigate the non-perturbative renormalization group behavior of the gauge coupling constant using a truncated form of the functional flow equation for the effective average action of the Yang-Mills-gravity system. We find a non-zero quantum gravity correction to the standard Yang-Mills beta function which has the same sign as the gauge boson contribution. Our results fit into the picture according to which Quantum Einstein Gravity (QEG) is asymptotically safe, with a vanishing gauge coupling constant at the non-trivial fixed point.Comment: 27 page

Stationary Black Holes: Uniqueness and Beyond

The spectrum of known black-hole solutions to the stationary Einstein equations has been steadily increasing, sometimes in unexpected ways. In particular, it has turned out that not all black-hole-equilibrium configurations are characterized by their mass, angular momentum and global charges. Moreover, the high degree of symmetry displayed by vacuum and electro-vacuum black-hole spacetimes ceases to exist in self-gravitating non-linear field theories. This text aims to review some developments in the subject and to discuss them in light of the uniqueness theorem for the Einstein-Maxwell system.Comment: Major update of the original version by Markus Heusler from 1998. Piotr T. Chru\'sciel and Jo\~ao Lopes Costa succeeded to this review's authorship. Significantly restructured and updated all sections; changes are too numerous to be usefully described here. The number of references increased from 186 to 32