EMU and macroeconomic shocks: some evidence on Spanish regions

According to the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas, one of the main costs that EMU may entail for countries and regions belonging in it is the loss of monetary autonomy at the country level. In fact, the scenario brought about by the single currency does not allow for domestic policy adjustments (i.e a change in the exchange rate or a specific monetary measure) in response to shocks. The importance of this cost, in turn, is related to the nature of shocks impinging over the different countries and regions that encompass the eurozone. If the probability that countries and regions suffer the same sort of shock is large, then a common policy designed by the ECB will have beneficial effects on the whole eurozone. Instead, if regions or countries are likely to be exposed to different kinds of shocks, then the common monetary policy will benefit some areas in detriment of others. To address this issue empirically, this paper focuses in the analysis of the shocks that have hit the Spanish regions in the recent past. In particular, we want to identify the kind of shocks that have been suffered by the Spanish regions in the last decades, distinguishing several categories: symmetric versus asymmetric, persistent versus transitory and demand shocks versus supply shocks. By symmetric shocks we understand those that have similar impact on all regions. Permanent shocks are those characterised by side effects that do not vanish in the short run. An example of a demand shock is a change in consumers' preferences, whereas a supply shock is typically a modification in the price of a raw material. We examine the behaviour of GAV and prices for 17 Spanish regions over the period 1955-97. In particular, we write a baseline model in the form of the state-of-spaces, in order to be able to apply the Kalman filter. Main conclusions are as follows: first, and employing the assumption that common shocks are tantamount to symmetric shocks, it seems that, in most cases, the shocks that have affected the Spanish regions have been mostly symmetric, while asymmetric shocks have been more sparse. Second, empirical results suggest that the effects of these shocks have been, generally speaking, persistent rather than transitory. Finally, the estimation suggests that supply shocks have been slightly more frequent that demand shocks. The policy implications of these results are that the lack of monetary autonomy and the loss of the exchange rate as adjustment mechanisms may not be very onerous. The common monetary policy implemented by the ECB will probably have similar effects on all Spanish regions. Therefore, the danger of an increase in regional disparities via this channel do not seem to be very severe.

Costs of EMU from a regional approach: the Spanish case

In this paper we look at the impact of EMU on Spanish regional disparities in the framework of the Optimal Currency Areas theory and upon its distinction between benefits and costs of a monetary integration. In particular, here we want to deal with the main potential source of costs for the Spanish regions: the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the economy. In this regard, we try to ascertain the degree of correlation among the business cycles of the Spanish regions, and also with respect to the European and Spanish cycle. The technique employed in the paper ( following Peiro, 2000) focuses on the cross correlations among relevant variables at the regional and the national level such as the behaviour of industrial production or the rate of inflation. We proceed in two steps. First we filter the series in order to get non-autocorrelated residuals. Next we compute the asymptotic distribution of the contemporaneus correlation among the variables in order to know to which extent business cycles behave according to a similar pattern. This method will shed some light on the question about the degree of comovements in the cycles. If the comovements seem to be high - as we expect, based upon other results -, then we may consider than the probability of the Spanish regions suffering asymmetric shocks is less severe.

Costs of EMU from a regional approach: the Spanish case

In this paper we look at the impact of EMU on Spanish regional disparities in the framework of the Optimal Currency Areas theory and upon its distinction between benefits and costs of a monetary integration. In particular, here we want to deal with the main potential source of costs for the Spanish regions: the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the economy. In this regard, we try to ascertain the degree of correlation among the business cycles of the Spanish regions, and also with respect to the European and Spanish cycle. The technique employed in the paper ( following Peiro, 2000) focuses on the cross correlations among relevant variables at the regional and the national level such as the behaviour of industrial production or the rate of inflation. We proceed in two steps. First we filter the series in order to get non-autocorrelated residuals. Next we compute the asymptotic distribution of the contemporaneus correlation among the variables in order to know to which extent business cycles behave according to a similar pattern. This method will shed some light on the question about the degree of comovements in the cycles. If the comovements seem to be high - as we expect, based upon other results -, then we may consider than the probability of the Spanish regions suffering asymmetric shocks is less severe

EMU and macroeconomic shocks: some evidence on Spanish regions

According to the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas, one of the main costs that EMU may entail for countries and regions belonging in it is the loss of monetary autonomy at the country level. In fact, the scenario brought about by the single currency does not allow for domestic policy adjustments (i.e a change in the exchange rate or a specific monetary measure) in response to shocks. The importance of this cost, in turn, is related to the nature of shocks impinging over the different countries and regions that encompass the eurozone. If the probability that countries and regions suffer the same sort of shock is large, then a common policy designed by the ECB will have beneficial effects on the whole eurozone. Instead, if regions or countries are likely to be exposed to different kinds of shocks, then the common monetary policy will benefit some areas in detriment of others. To address this issue empirically, this paper focuses in the analysis of the shocks that have hit the Spanish regions in the recent past. In particular, we want to identify the kind of shocks that have been suffered by the Spanish regions in the last decades, distinguishing several categories: symmetric versus asymmetric, persistent versus transitory and demand shocks versus supply shocks. By symmetric shocks we understand those that have similar impact on all regions. Permanent shocks are those characterised by side effects that do not vanish in the short run. An example of a demand shock is a change in consumers' preferences, whereas a supply shock is typically a modification in the price of a raw material. We examine the behaviour of GAV and prices for 17 Spanish regions over the period 1955-97. In particular, we write a baseline model in the form of the state-of-spaces, in order to be able to apply the Kalman filter. Main conclusions are as follows: first, and employing the assumption that common shocks are tantamount to symmetric shocks, it seems that, in most cases, the shocks that have affected the Spanish regions have been mostly symmetric, while asymmetric shocks have been more sparse. Second, empirical results suggest that the effects of these shocks have been, generally speaking, persistent rather than transitory. Finally, the estimation suggests that supply shocks have been slightly more frequent that demand shocks. The policy implications of these results are that the lack of monetary autonomy and the loss of the exchange rate as adjustment mechanisms may not be very onerous. The common monetary policy implemented by the ECB will probably have similar effects on all Spanish regions. Therefore, the danger of an increase in regional disparities via this channel do not seem to be very severe

Factores de riesgo asociados con la hipertension arterial no controlada en pacientes atendidos en el Centro de Salud Francisco Buitrago, Managua, Octubre a Diciembre del 2014

El objetivo del presente trabajo es Determinar los principales factores de riesgo asociado con la Hipertensión Arterial no contralada en pacientes atendidos en el Centro de Salud Francisco Buitrago, Managua. Octubre a Diciembre del 2014? El tipo de estudio es Analítico de Casos y Controles siendo los Casos los pacientes hipertensos dispensarizados en la unidad de salud que al momento del estudio no tengan cifras tensiónales en rangos normales y los Controles los que si se encuentre en parámetros normales, siendo la condición principal el ser Hipertenso al momento del estudio y el estar dispensarizado en dicho Centro para incluir a los pacientes al estudio. Se seleccionó una muestra de 160 pacientes (IC 95%); de relación 1:1 de casos y de controles, dentro de los objetivos del presente trabajo está el caracterizar a la población en estudio e investigar la asociación entre la condición de riesgo y la presencia de Antecedentes Patológicos Personales como los Familiares así como los hábitos conductuales nocivos con el descontrol de la presión arterial. Los resultados más importantes fueron que más del 80 % era mayor de 50 años de procedencia urbana, ligeramente superior los hombres en comparación con las mujeres. El 48 % tenía escolaridad estudios de secundaria y superiores así como un 41 % tenían trabajo fijo. El 68 % de los pacientes tenían antecedentes patológicos personales de los cuales el 54 % tenían como antecedente el tener Hipertensión Arterial por más de 10 años de evolución más Diabetes Mellitus. El 50 % tenía presencia de antecedentes no patológicos de los cuales el 49 % era alcohol y fumado; más del 70 % tenían hábitos alimenticios nocivos y no practica ejercicio físico. Se concluyó que los principales factores de riesgo estadísticamente significativo para el descontrol de la Hipertensión Arterial son: el sobrepeso y la obesidad, presencia de Hipertensión por más de 10 años, mas Diabetes Mellitus, presencia de antecedentes no patológicos tales como el alcohol y cigarrillo y por último la no realización de ejercicio físico sistemático. Se recomendó educación a los pacientes sobre los factores de riesgo encontrados en el estudio como lo son los hábitos tóxicos ya sean alimenticios o conductuales además de recalcar la importancia al apego del tratamiento farmacológico para el correcto control de la Hipertensión Arterial en los pacientes de dicho centro asistencia