A Time-Varying Model of Risk for Predicting Recidivism Among Women Offenders Over 3 Years Following Their Release From Jail

This study examines time-varying gender-responsive and gender-neutral predictors of recidivism over 3 years using baseline and quarterly follow-up interviews with 477 women released from a county jail. Of the 55 time-varying predictors tested in the longitudinal analysis, 39 were significant predictors of recidivism (new arrest or incarceration) even after controlling for baseline fixed predictors. Stepwise multivariate analysis simplified the model to 12 significant variables, including three time-varying variables associated with reduced risk of recidivism (custody of one’s children, self-help activity, environmental support), eight time-varying variables associated with increased risk of recidivism (illegal activity, type of crime, problems with probation/parole, days in jail/prison, number of sexual partners, past-year trauma, problem orientation, external pressure), and the composite measure of risk from baseline. These findings support the development of post-release re-entry services tailored for female offenders that address both gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic risk factors

A Time-Varying Model of Risk for Predicting Recidivism Among Women Offenders Over 3 Years Following Their Release From Jail

This study examines time-varying gender-responsive and gender-neutral predictors of recidivism over 3 years using baseline and quarterly follow-up interviews with 477 women released from a county jail. Of the 55 time-varying predictors tested in the longitudinal analysis, 39 were significant predictors of recidivism (new arrest or incarceration) even after controlling for baseline fixed predictors. Stepwise multivariate analysis simplified the model to 12 significant variables, including three time-varying variables associated with reduced risk of recidivism (custody of one’s children, self-help activity, environmental support), eight time-varying variables associated with increased risk of recidivism (illegal activity, type of crime, problems with probation/parole, days in jail/prison, number of sexual partners, past-year trauma, problem orientation, external pressure), and the composite measure of risk from baseline. These findings support the development of post-release re-entry services tailored for female offenders that address both gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic risk factors

PREDICTORS OF RECIDIVISM OVER 3 YEARS AMONG SUBSTANCE-USING WOMEN RELEASED FROM JAIL.

This study examines predictors of recidivism over 3 years for 624 women released from a county jail using a comprehensive range of standardized measures derived from gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic recidivism models. Although more than a dozen factors were related to recidivism in the univariate analysis, the multivariate analysis shows that recidivism can be reliably predicted (area under the curve = 0.90) with just four factors: age, no custody of children, substance use frequency, and number of substance problems. Exploratory analysis of women who recidivated in post-release months 1 to 3, 4 to 12, and 13 to 36 revealed that the effects of several variables (age, super optimism, and number of weeks in the jail treatment program) were dependent on the time elapsed since release from jail, whereas others (substance use and custody) had persistent effects over time. These findings support the development of re-entry services tailored for female offenders who address both gender-responsive and gender-neutral criminogenic risk factors