A Spatiotemporal Bayesian Hierarchical Approach to Investigating Patterns of Confidence in the Police at the Neighborhood Level

Public confidence in the police is crucial to effective policing. Improving understanding of public confidence at the local level will better enable the police to conduct proactive confidence interventions to meet the concerns of local communities. Conventional approaches do not consider that public confidence varies across geographic space as well as in time. Neighborhood level approaches to modeling public confidence in the police are hampered by the small number problem and the resulting instability in the estimates and uncertainty in the results. This research illustrates a spatiotemporal Bayesian approach for estimating and forecasting public confidence at the neighborhood level and we use it to examine trends in public confidence in the police in London, UK, for Q2 2006 to Q3 2013. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the small number problem and specifically, we investigate the effect of the spatiotemporal representation structure chosen on the estimates of public confidence produced. We then investigate the use of the model for forecasting by producing one‐step ahead forecasts of the final third of the time series. The results are compared with the forecasts from traditional time‐series forecasting methods like naïve, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, STARIMA, and others. A model with spatially structured and unstructured random effects as well as a normally distributed spatiotemporal interaction term was the most parsimonious and produced the most realistic estimates. It also provided the best forecasts at the London‐wide, Borough, and neighborhood level

Parent characteristics associated with approval of their children drinking alcohol from ages 13 to 16 years: prospective cohort study

Objective: We investigated parent sociodemographic and drinking characteristics in relation to whether they approved of their children drinking at ages 13, 14, 15 and 16 years. Methods: We collected data annually from 2010–2014, in which 1,927 parent–child dyads, comprising school students (mean age 12.9 years at baseline) and one of their parents, participated. Our operational definition of parental approval of children drinking was based on the behaviour of parents in pre-specified contexts, reported by children. We measured parents’ drinking with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) scale and performed logistic regression to estimate associations between exposures and each wave of outcomes. Results: Parents’ approval of their children's drinking increased from 4.6% at age 13 years to 13% at age 16 years and was more common in parents of daughters than parents of sons (OR 1.62; 95%CI: 1.23 to 2.12). Parents in low-income families (OR 2.67; 1.73 to 4.12), single parents (OR 1.62; 1.17 to 2.25), parents with less than a higher school certificate (OR 1.54; 1.07 to 2.22), and parents who drank more heavily (OR 1.17; 1.09 to 1.25) were more likely to approve of their child drinking. Conclusions: Socially disadvantaged parents were more likely to approve of their children drinking alcohol. Implications for public health: The findings identify high-risk groups in the population and may help explain the socioeconomic gradients in alcohol-related morbidity and mortality seen in many countries

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of depression in children and adolescents after exposure to trauma

Background Depression is often reported as co-occurring with post-traumatic stress disorder in children and adolescents, but its prevalence within trauma-exposed child and adolescent samples is not well understood. Methods Our meta-analyses addressed two questions: I. What is the prevalence of depression (either based on structured interview or cut-off on a self-report measure) in children and adolescents after exposure to trauma? II. Does trauma exposure increase the severity or rates of depression comparative to another comparison group of children and adolescents with milder exposure or no exposure to trauma? Results Fifty-six studies reported depression prevalence. A random effects meta-analysis suggested that 24.2% [95% CI 20.6 – 28.0] of children and adolescents exposed to a traumatic event met criteria for depression. Our second meta-analysis across 30 studies found that the effect of trauma exposure (relative to unexposed or less exposed children and adolescents) on depression scores was medium in size (d = 0.51, 95% CI 0.41 – 0.61). The odds of a diagnosis of depression were 2.6 times greater [95% CI 2.0 – 3.3] for children and adolescents exposed to trauma as compared to those unexposed or less exposed. Participants exposed to interpersonal violence (IPV) had a higher prevalence and level of depression compared with those exposed to non-IPV trauma. Limitations Results should be interpreted with caution due to high levels of heterogeneity. Conclusion Depression in trauma-exposed children and adolescents is a common response to trauma that is not solely reflective of pre-traumatic difficulties. Post-traumatic depression merits serious consideration in trauma-exposed children and adolescents

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