Sparse bayesian polynomial chaos approximations of elasto-plastic material models

In this paper we studied the uncertainty quantification in a functional approximation form of elastoplastic models parameterised by material uncertainties. The problem of estimating the polynomial chaos coefficients is recast in a linear regression form by taking into consideration the possible sparsity of the solution. Departing from the classical optimisation point of view, we take a slightly different path by solving the problem in a Bayesian manner with the help of new spectral based sparse Kalman filter algorithms

Bayesian parameter identification in plasticity

To evaluate the cyclic behaviour under different loading conditions using the kinematic and isotropic hardening theory of steel a Chaboche visco-plastic material model is employed. The parameters of a constitutive model are usually identified by minimization of the distance between model response and experimental data. However, measurement errors and differences in the specimens lead to deviations in the determined parameters. In this article the Choboche model is used and a stochastic simulation technique is applied to generate artificial data which exhibit the same stochastic behaviour as experimental data. Then the model parameters are identified by applying a variaty of Bayes’s theorem. Identified parameters are compared with the true parameters in the simulation and the efficiency of the identification method is discussed

Uncertainty quantification of leakages in a multistage simulation and comparison with experiments

The present paper presents a numerical study of the impact of tip gap uncertainties in a multistage turbine. It is well known that the rotor gap can change the gas turbine efficiency but the impact of the random variation of the clearance height has not been investigated before. In this paper the radial seals clearance of a datum shroud geometry, representative of steam turbine industrial practice, was systematically varied and numerically tested. By using a Non-Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification simulation based on a Sparse Arbitrary Moment Based Approach, it is possible to predict the radial distribution of uncertainty in stagnation pressure and yaw angle at the exit of the turbine blades. This work shows that the impact of gap uncertainties propagates radially from the tip towards the hub of the turbine and the complete span is affected by a variation of the rotor tip gap. This amplification of the uncertainty is mainly due to the low aspect ratio of the turbine and a similar behavior is expected in high pressure turbines

Parameter Estimation via Conditional Expectation --- A Bayesian Inversion

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by actual observations of the response of the real system. In a probabilistic setting, Bayes's theory is the proper mathematical background for this identification process. The possibility of being able to compute a conditional expectation turns out to be crucial for this purpose. We show how this theoretical background can be used in an actual numerical procedure, and shortly discuss various numerical approximations

Influence of fluid temperature gradient on the flow within the shaft gap of a PLR pump

In nuclear power plants the primary-loop recirculation (PLR) pump circulates the high temperature/high-pressure coolant in order to remove the thermal energy generated within the reactor. The pump is sealed using the cold purge flow in the shaft seal gap between the rotating shaft and stationary casing, where different forms of Taylor–Couette flow instabilities develop. Due to the temperature difference between the hot recirculating water and the cold purge water (of order of 200 °C), the flow instabilities in the gap cause temperature fluctuations, which can lead to shaft or casing thermal fatigue cracks. The present work numerically investigated the influence of temperature difference and rotating speed on the structure and dynamics of the Taylor–Couette flow instabilities. The CFD solver used in this study was extensively validated against the experimental data published in the open literature. Influence of temperature difference on the fluid dynamics of Taylor vortices was investigated in this study. With large temperature difference, the structure of the Taylor vortices is greatly stretched at the interface region between the annulus gap and the lower recirculating cavity. Higher temperature difference and rotating speed induce lower fluctuating frequency and smaller circumferential wave number of Taylor vortices. However, the azimuthal wave speed remains unchanged with all the cases tested. The predicted axial location of the maximum temperature fluctuation on the shaft is in a good agreement with the experimental data, identifying the region potentially affected by the thermal fatigue. The physical understandings of such flow instabilities presented in this paper would be useful for future PLR pump design optimization

Full-thickness eyelid lesions in sarcoidosis

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Socioeconomic indicators and ethnicity as determinants of regional mortality rates in Slovakia

Regional differences in mortality might reflect socioeconomic and ethnic differences between regions. The present study examines the relationship between education, unemployment, income, Roma population and regional mortality in the Slovak Republic. Separately for males and females, data on standardised mortality in the Slovak population aged 20-64 years in the year 2002 were calculated for each of the 79 districts. Similarly the proportions of respondents with tertiary education, unemployed status, Roma ethnicity and income data were calculated per district. A linear regression model was used to analyse the data. Socioeconomic differences in regional mortality were found among males, but not among females. While education and unemployment rate significantly contributed to mortality differences between regions, income and the proportion of Roma population did not. The model explained 32.9% of the variance in standardised mortality rate among districts for males and 7.6% for females. Low education and high unemployment rate seems to be an indicator of regions with high mortality of male and therefore should be targeted by policy measures aimed at decreasing mortality in productive age

ARTreat Project: Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of Plaque Formation and Development in the Arteries

Atherosclerosis is a progressive disease characterized by the accumulation of lipids and fibrous elements in arteries. It is characterized by dysfunction of endothelium and vasculitis, and accumulation of lipid, cholesterol, and cell elements inside blood vessel wall. In this study, a continuum-based approach for plaque formation and development in 3-D is presented. The blood flow is simulated by the 3-D Navier-Stokes equations, together with the continuity equation while low-density lipoprotein (LDL) transport in lumen of the vessel is coupled with Kedem-Katchalsky equations. The inflammatory process was solved using three additional reaction-diffusion partial differential equations. Transport of labeled LDL was fitted with our experiment on the rabbit animal model. Matching with histological data for LDL localization was achieved. Also, 3-D model of the straight artery with initial mild constriction of 30% plaque for formation and development is presented

Histamine index and clinical expression of rheumatoid arthritis activity

Background/Aim: Many arguments prove the pathophysiologic role of histamine in the process of remodeling and joint destruction in rheumatoid arthritis. The aim of our study was to find out if there was a relation between histamine concentration in synovial fluid and blood with clinical expression of disease activity. Methods: Histamine concentration in synovial fluid and blood was determinated in 19 patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Histamine concentration measurement was based on the Shore's fluorometric method. Histamine index (HI) was evaluated as a ratio between histamine concentration in synovial fluid and blood. Disease activity score, DAS 28 (3), with three variables (erythrocyte sedimentation rate, the number of swelled joints and the number of tender joints) was also evaluated. Results: Our results showed that there was no significant difference in concentration of histamine in synovial fluid and blood related to disease activity. However, there was a significiant difference in the histamine index which was increased proportionally with disease activity. Conclusion: Our study indicates that histamine index could be useful in estimation of rheumatoid arthritis activity