Distribution, habitat preferences and population sizes of two threatened tree ferns, Cyathea cunninghamii and Cyathea x marcescens, in south-eastern Australia

The distribution, population sizes and habitat preferences of the rare tree ferns Cyathea cunninghamii Hook.f. (Slender Tree Fern) and F1 hybrid Cyathea x marcescens N.A.Wakef. (Skirted Tree Fern) in south-eastern Australia are described, together with the extension of the known distribution range of Cyathea cunninghamii from eastern Victoria into south-eastern New South Wales. Floristic and ecological data, encompassing most of the known habitat types, vegetation associations and population sizes, were collected across 120 locations. Additional information was sought from literature reviews, herbarium collections and field surveys of extant populations. Cyathea cunninghamii is widespread, with the majority of populations occurring in Tasmania and Victoria, one population in south-eastern NSW and a disjunct population in south-eastern Queensland; Cyathea x marcescens is confined to south and eastern Victoria and south and north eastern Tasmania. Both taxa occur on King Island in Bass Strait. Both taxa have a near coastal distribution with most populations occurring in sub-coastal hinterland and escarpment forests with a median altitude of 288 m. Hierarchical cluster analysis of floristic data across the species’ geographic range identified six vegetation communities ranging from rainforest to damp sclerophyll forest. Their micro-habitat preferences were consistently identified as steeply incised gullies of minor headwater streams of coastal and sub-coastal ranges with a plentiful moisture regime and geomorphic protection from extreme stream flow events, flooding and bank scouring. Sporophyte recruitment was associated with exposed soil of stream banks and edges of constructed walking tracks. Population sizes of both taxa are small with the majority of populations consisting of less than five adult individuals, with total populations of Cyathea cunninghamii and Cyathea x marcescens estimated at 919 and 221 mature individuals respectively. Population extinctions in Victoria and Tasmania have primarily been associated with outlier populations in regions subject to agricultural land clearance, habitat modification and changes to fire regimes in crown forests. Nonanthropogenic mortality was associated with land slips, tree falls and stream bank scouring by flood water. Conservation of the hybrid Cyathea x marcescens necessitates the preservation of habitats where both Cyathea cunninghamii and Cyathea australis occur in close proximity to substrates suitable for spore germination. In future, molecular techniques may prove useful for field identification of juvenile stages, facilitating selection of progeny of Cyathea cunninghamii and Cyathea x marcescens for cultivation and re-introduction to sites of previous or possible future extinctions

Applying the Biopsychosocial Model: Factors Associated with Depression in Mexican-American Adults

Although professionals in psychiatry, psychology and medicine claim to endorse the biopsychosocial model as proposed by George L. Engel (1977), clinicians in all three fields still tend to underutilize it. Some academics have also criticized the model for its inadequate emphasis on cultural contextualization. To improve upon the model, I sought to empirically establish the relationship between culturally-specific social factors and psychological disorder, in this case depressive symptoms in Mexican-American adults. Eighty-six Mexican-American participants living on the US-Mexico border completed scales measuring depressive symptoms, bidirectional acculturation, living situation, diabetes, and health beliefs regarding the origins of diabetes. The results revealed that diabetes, acculturation, and gender were not associated with depressive symptoms in this population, even when controlling for mental health biases. This finding is in contrast to findings from other literature that associated diabetes, low acculturation and gender with depression in Hispanic adults. Extended family cohabitation was also not associated with lower numbers of depressive symptoms, despite the importance of familism and the extended family unit in Mexican-American culture. Unemployment was significantly related to number of depressive symptoms in both genders. There was no significant relationship between acculturation and health beliefs. These results indicate the importance of studying psychological disorders within the context of specific population groups that transcend vague censual terms. The discussion addresses methodological concerns and further directions for research concerning gender roles, chronic illness, depression and out-of-home employment in Mexican-American adults

Primary health care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children

This final report presents the findings from each of the phases of the Engaging Stakeholders in Identifying Priority Evidence-Practice Gaps and Strategies for Improvement in Primary Health Care (ESP) Project. This report is designed for people working in a range of roles including national and jurisdictional policy makers, managers, community-controlled organisations and government health authorities, peak bodies, clinical leaders, researchers, primary health care staff and continuous quality improvement (CQI) practitioners who may have an interest in the interpretation and use of aggregated CQI data to drive decision making. Stakeholders across services and systems that deliver Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander primary health care (PHC) engaged in a process to analyse and interpret national continuous quality improvement (CQI) data from 132 health centres. We used a consensus process to identify priority evidence-practice gaps in child health care, based on these data. Stakeholders drew on their knowledge and experience working in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander PHC to identify barriers and enablers to addressing the priority evidence- practice gaps, and to suggest strategies to overcome barriers and strengthen enablers to addressing the priority evidence-practice gaps. Important messages emerge from these findings

The Ethics of Embodiment

A review of Rosalyn Diprose's Corporeal Generosity: On Giving with Nietzsche, Merleau-Ponty, and Levinas (SUNY Press, Albany, New York. 2002)

Chronic illness care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people: final report

This project engage a range of stakeholders across different levels of the primary health care system, including service providers, management, policy-makers and researchers and capture their knowledge on the barriers and enablers to addressing the identified priority-evidence practice gaps and their suggestions on strategies for improvement. Overview The purpose of this project is to engage key stakeholders in the use of aggregate continuous quality improvement (CQI) data to identify and address system-wide evidence-practice gaps in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander chronic illness care. We aimed to engage a range of stakeholders across different levels of the primary health care (PHC) system, including service providers, management, policy-makers and researchers and capture their knowledge on the barriers and enablers to addressing the identified priority-evidence practice gaps and their suggestions on strategies for improvement. Our research has highlighted the wide variation in performance between different aspects of care and between health centres. While many aspects of care are being done well in many health centres, there are important gaps between evidence and practice in some aspects of PHC. System-wide gaps are likely to be due to deficiencies in the broader (PHC) system, indicating that system-level action is required to improve performance. Such system-level action should be developed with a deep understanding of the holistic nature of Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander wellbeing beyond just physical health (including healthy connections to culture, community and country), of the impact of Australian colonist history on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and of how social systems – including the health system - should be shaped to meet the needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. This project aims to build on the collective strengths within PHC services in order to continue improving the quality of care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities

A new floating model level scheme for the assimilation of boundary layer top inversions: the univariate assimilation of temperature.

The assimilation of observations with a forecast is often heavily influenced by the description of the error covariances associated with the forecast. When a temperature inversion is present at the top of the boundary layer (BL), a significant part of the forecast error may be described as a vertical positional error (as opposed to amplitude error normally dealt with in data assimilation). In these cases, failing to account for positional error explicitly is shown t o r esult in an analysis for which the inversion structure is erroneously weakened and degraded. In this article, a new assimilation scheme is proposed to explicitly include the positional error associated with an inversion. This is done through the introduction of an extra control variable to allow position errors in the a priori to be treated simultaneously with the usual amplitude errors. This new scheme, referred to as the ‘floating BL scheme’, is applied to the one-dimensional (vertical) variational assimilation of temperature. The floating BL scheme is tested with a series of idealised experiments a nd with real data from radiosondes. For each idealised experiment, the floating BL scheme gives an analysis which has the inversion structure and position in agreement with the truth, and outperforms the a ssimilation which accounts only for forecast a mplitude error. When the floating BL scheme is used to assimilate a l arge sample of radiosonde data, its ability to give an analysis with an inversion height in better agreement with that observed is confirmed. However, it is found that the use of Gaussian statistics is an inappropriate description o f t he error statistics o f t he extra c ontrol variable. This problem is alleviated by incorporating a non-Gaussian description of the new control variable in the new scheme. Anticipated challenges in implementing the scheme operationally are discussed towards the end of the article

Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone

Methods of investigating forecast error sensitivity to ensemble size in a limited-area convection-permitting ensemble

Ensemble-based predictions are increasingly used as an aid to weather forecasting and to data assimilation, where the aim is to capture the range of possible outcomes consistent with the underlying uncertainties. Constraints on computing resources mean that ensembles have a relatively small size, which can lead to an incomplete range of possible outcomes, and to inherent sampling errors. This paper discusses how an existing ensemble can be relatively easily increased in size, it develops a range of standard and extended diagnostics to help determine whether a given ensemble is ‘large enough’ to be useful for forecasting and data assimilation purposes, and it applies the diagnostics to a convective-scale case study for illustration. Diagnostics include the effect of ensemble size on various aspects of rainfall forecasts, kinetic energy spectra, and (co)variance statistics in the spatial and spectral domains. The work here extends the Met Office’s 24 ensemble members to 93. It is found that the extra members do develop a significant degree of linear independence, they increase the ensemble spread (although with caveats to do with non-Gaussianity), they reduce sampling error in many statistical quantities (namely variances, correlations, and length-scales), and improve the effective spatial resolution of the ensemble. The extra members though do not improve the probabilistic rain rate forecasts. It is assumed that the 93-member ensemble approximates the error-free statistics, which is a practical assumption, but the data suggests that this number of members is ultimately not enough to justify this assumption, and therefore more ensembles are likely required for such convective-scale systems to further reduce sampling errors, especially for ensemble data assimilation purposes