Assessment of valley cold pools and clouds in a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction model

The formation of cold air pools in valleys under stable conditions represents an important challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The challenge is increased when the valleys that dominate cold pool formation are on scales unresolved by NWP models, which can lead to substantial local errors in temperature forecasts. In this study a 2-month simulation is presented using a nested model con- figuration with a finest horizontal grid spacing of 100 m. The simulation is compared with observations from the recent COLd air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX) project and the model’s ability to represent cold pool formation, and the surface energy balance is assessed. The results reveal a bias in the model long-wave radiation that results from the assumptions made about the sub-grid variability in humidity in the cloud parametrization scheme. The cloud scheme assumes relative humidity thresholds below 100 % to diagnose partial cloudiness, an approach common to schemes used in many other models. The biases in radiation, and resulting biases in screen temperature and cold pool properties are shown to be sensitive to the choice of critical relative humidity, suggesting that this is a key area that should be improved for very high-resolution modeling

Ising-like antiferromagnetism on the octahedral sublattice of a cobalt-containing garnet and the potential for quantum criticality

In this contribution, we report that CaY2Co2Ge3O12 exhibits an unusual anisotropic and chainlike antiferromagnetic arrangement of spins despite crystallizing in the highly symmetric garnet structure. Using low-temperature powder neutron diffraction and symmetry analysis, we identify a magnetic structure consisting of chainlike motifs oriented along the body diagonals of the cubic unit cell with moments pointing parallel to the chain direction due to the strong Ising character of the Co ions. Antiferromagnetic order sets in below 6 K and exhibits both temperature- and field-induced magnetic transitions at high fields. Combining the results, we present a magnetic phase diagram that suggests CaY2Co2Ge3O12 undergoes a quantum phase transition at low temperatures and moderate fields

The generalised NMSSM at one loop: fine tuning and phenomenology

We determine the degree of fine tuning needed in a generalised version of the NMSSM that follows from an underlying Z4 or Z8 R symmetry. We find that it is significantly less than is found in the MSSM or NMSSM and extends the range of Higgs mass that have acceptable fine tuning up to Higgs masses of mh ~ 130 GeV. For universal boundary conditions analogous to the CMSSM the phenomenology is rather MSSM like with the singlet states typically rather heavy. For more general boundary conditions the singlet states can be light, leading to interesting signatures at the LHC and direct detection experiments.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, matches published versio

Naturalness and Fine Tuning in the NMSSM: Implications of Early LHC Results

We study the fine tuning in the parameter space of the semi-constrained NMSSM, where most soft Susy breaking parameters are universal at the GUT scale. We discuss the dependence of the fine tuning on the soft Susy breaking parameters M_1/2 and m0, and on the Higgs masses in NMSSM specific scenarios involving large singlet-doublet Higgs mixing or dominant Higgs-to-Higgs decays. Whereas these latter scenarios allow a priori for considerably less fine tuning than the constrained MSSM, the early LHC results rule out a large part of the parameter space of the semi-constrained NMSSM corresponding to low values of the fine tuning.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, bounds from Susy searches with ~1/fb include

Family composition and age at menarche: findings from the international Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Study

This research was funded by The University of St Andrews and NHS Health Scotland.Background Early menarche has been associated with father absence, stepfather presence and adverse health consequences in later life. This article assesses the association of different family compositions with the age at menarche. Pathways are explored which may explain any association between family characteristics and pubertal timing. Methods Cross-sectional, international data on the age at menarche, family structure and covariates (age, psychosomatic complaints, media consumption, physical activity) were collected from the 2009–2010 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) survey. The sample focuses on 15-year old girls comprising 36,175 individuals across 40 countries in Europe and North America (N = 21,075 for age at menarche). The study examined the association of different family characteristics with age at menarche. Regression and path analyses were applied incorporating multilevel techniques to adjust for the nested nature of data within countries. Results Living with mother (Cohen’s d = .12), father (d = .08), brothers (d = .04) and sisters (d = .06) are independently associated with later age at menarche. Living in a foster home (d = −.16), with ‘someone else’ (d = −.11), stepmother (d = −.10) or stepfather (d = −.06) was associated with earlier menarche. Path models show that up to 89% of these effects can be explained through lifestyle and psychological variables. Conclusions Earlier menarche is reported amongst those with living conditions other than a family consisting of two biological parents. This can partly be explained by girls’ higher Body Mass Index in these families which is a biological determinant of early menarche. Lower physical activity and elevated psychosomatic complaints were also more often found in girls in these family environments.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Foot pain and foot health in an educated population of adults: results from the Glasgow Caledonian University Alumni Foot Health Survey

Abstract Background Foot pain is common amongst the general population and impacts negatively on physical function and quality of life. Associations between personal health characteristics, lifestyle/behaviour factors and foot pain have been studied; however, the role of wider determinants of health on foot pain have received relatively little attention. Objectives of this study are i) to describe foot pain and foot health characteristics in an educated population of adults; ii) to explore associations between moderate-to-severe foot pain and a variety of factors including gender, age, medical conditions/co-morbidity/multi-morbidity, key indicators of general health, foot pathologies, and social determinants of health; and iii) to evaluate associations between moderate-to-severe foot pain and foot function, foot health and health-related quality-of-life. Methods Between February and March 2018, Glasgow Caledonian University Alumni with a working email address were invited to participate in the cross-sectional electronic survey (anonymously) by email via the Glasgow Caledonian University Alumni Office. The survey was constructed using the REDCap secure web online survey application and sought information on presence/absence of moderate-to-severe foot pain, patient characteristics (age, body mass index, socioeconomic status, occupation class, comorbidities, and foot pathologies). Prevalence data were expressed as absolute frequencies and percentages. Multivariate logistic and linear regressions were undertaken to identify associations 1) between independent variables and moderate-to-severe foot pain, and 2) between moderate-to-severe foot pain and foot function, foot health and health-related quality of life. Results Of 50,228 invitations distributed, there were 7707 unique views and 593 valid completions (median age [inter-quartile range] 42 [31–52], 67.3% female) of the survey (7.7% response rate). The sample was comprised predominantly of white Scottish/British (89.4%) working age adults (95%), the majority of whom were overweight or obese (57.9%), and in either full-time or part-time employment (82.5%) as professionals (72.5%). Over two-thirds (68.5%) of the sample were classified in the highest 6 deciles (most affluent) of social deprivation. Moderate-to-severe foot pain affected 236/593 respondents (39.8%). High body mass index, presence of bunions, back pain, rheumatoid arthritis, hip pain and lower occupation class were included in the final multivariate model and all were significantly and independently associated with moderate-to-severe foot pain (p < 0.05), except for rheumatoid arthritis (p = 0.057). Moderate-to-severe foot pain was significantly and independently associated lower foot function, foot health and health-related quality of life scores following adjustment for age, gender and body mass index (p < 0.05). Conclusions Moderate-to-severe foot pain was highly prevalent in a university-educated population and was independently associated with female gender, high body mass index, bunions, back pain, hip pain and lower occupational class. Presence of moderate-to-severe foot pain was associated with worse scores for foot function, foot health and health-related quality-of-life. Education attainment does not appear to be protective against moderate-to-severe foot pain

Tuning supersymmetric models at the LHC: A comparative analysis at two-loop level

We provide a comparative study of the fine tuning amount (Delta) at the two-loop leading log level in supersymmetric models commonly used in SUSY searches at the LHC. These are the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), non-universal Higgs masses models (NUHM1, NUHM2), non-universal gaugino masses model (NUGM) and GUT related gaugino masses models (NUGMd). Two definitions of the fine tuning are used, the first (Delta_{max}) measures maximal fine-tuning wrt individual parameters while the second (Delta_q) adds their contribution in "quadrature". As a direct result of two theoretical constraints (the EW minimum conditions), fine tuning (Delta_q) emerges as a suppressing factor (effective prior) of the averaged likelihood (under the priors), under the integral of the global probability of measuring the data (Bayesian evidence p(D)). For each model, there is little difference between Delta_q, Delta_{max} in the region allowed by the data, with similar behaviour as functions of the Higgs, gluino, stop mass or SUSY scale (m_{susy}=(m_{\tilde t_1} m_{\tilde t_2})^{1/2}) or dark matter and g-2 constraints. The analysis has the advantage that by replacing any of these mass scales or constraints by their latest bounds one easily infers for each model the value of Delta_q, Delta_{max} or vice versa. For all models, minimal fine tuning is achieved for M_{higgs} near 115 GeV with a Delta_q\approx Delta_{max}\approx 10 to 100 depending on the model, and in the CMSSM this is actually a global minimum. Due to a strong ($\approx$ exponential) dependence of Delta on M_{higgs}, for a Higgs mass near 125 GeV, the above values of Delta_q\approx Delta_{max} increase to between 500 and 1000. Possible corrections to these values are briefly discussed.Comment: 23 pages, 46 figures; references added; some clarifications (section 2

A Profile Likelihood Analysis of the Constrained MSSM with Genetic Algorithms

The Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) is one of the simplest and most widely-studied supersymmetric extensions to the standard model of particle physics. Nevertheless, current data do not sufficiently constrain the model parameters in a way completely independent of priors, statistical measures and scanning techniques. We present a new technique for scanning supersymmetric parameter spaces, optimised for frequentist profile likelihood analyses and based on Genetic Algorithms. We apply this technique to the CMSSM, taking into account existing collider and cosmological data in our global fit. We compare our method to the MultiNest algorithm, an efficient Bayesian technique, paying particular attention to the best-fit points and implications for particle masses at the LHC and dark matter searches. Our global best-fit point lies in the focus point region. We find many high-likelihood points in both the stau co-annihilation and focus point regions, including a previously neglected section of the co-annihilation region at large m_0. We show that there are many high-likelihood points in the CMSSM parameter space commonly missed by existing scanning techniques, especially at high masses. This has a significant influence on the derived confidence regions for parameters and observables, and can dramatically change the entire statistical inference of such scans.Comment: 47 pages, 8 figures; Fig. 8, Table 7 and more discussions added to Sec. 3.4.2 in response to referee's comments; accepted for publication in JHE

Fine-tuning implications for complementary dark matter and LHC SUSY searches

The requirement that SUSY should solve the hierarchy problem without undue fine-tuning imposes severe constraints on the new supersymmetric states. With the MSSM spectrum and soft SUSY breaking originating from universal scalar and gaugino masses at the Grand Unification scale, we show that the low-fine-tuned regions fall into two classes that will require complementary collider and dark matter searches to explore in the near future. The first class has relatively light gluinos or squarks which should be found by the LHC in its first run. We identify the multijet plus E_T^miss signal as the optimal channel and determine the discovery potential in the first run. The second class has heavier gluinos and squarks but the LSP has a significant Higgsino component and should be seen by the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments. The combined information from the 7 TeV LHC run and the next generation of direct detection experiments can test almost all of the CMSSM parameter space consistent with dark matter and EW constraints, corresponding to a fine-tuning not worse than 1:100. To cover the complete low-fine-tuned region by SUSY searches at the LHC will require running at the full 14 TeV CM energy; in addition it may be tested indirectly by Higgs searches covering the mass range below 120 GeV.Comment: References added. Version accepted for publication in JHE