Estimating the Causal Effects of Marketing Interventions Using Propensity Score Methodology

Propensity score methods were proposed by Rosenbaum and Rubin [Biometrika 70 (1983) 41--55] as central tools to help assess the causal effects of interventions. Since their introduction more than two decades ago, they have found wide application in a variety of areas, including medical research, economics, epidemiology and education, especially in those situations where randomized experiments are either difficult to perform, or raise ethical questions, or would require extensive delays before answers could be obtained. In the past few years, the number of published applications using propensity score methods to evaluate medical and epidemiological interventions has increased dramatically. Nevertheless, thus far, we believe that there have been few applications of propensity score methods to evaluate marketing interventions (e.g., advertising, promotions), where the tradition is to use generally inappropriate techniques, which focus on the prediction of an outcome from background characteristics and an indicator for the intervention using statistical tools such as least-squares regression, data mining, and so on. With these techniques, an estimated parameter in the model is used to estimate some global ``causal'' effect. This practice can generate grossly incorrect answers that can be self-perpetuating: polishing the Ferraris rather than the Jeeps ``causes'' them to continue to win more races than the Jeeps $\Leftrightarrow$ visiting the high-prescribing doctors rather than the low-prescribing doctors ``causes'' them to continue to write more prescriptions. This presentation will take ``causality'' seriously, not just as a casual concept implying some predictive association in a data set, and will illustrate why propensity score methods are generally superior in practice to the standard predictive approaches for estimating causal effects.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000259 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Recognising and understanding collective resilience in crowds of survivors

No description supplie

Visualization of hydrogen injection in a scramjet engine by simultaneous PLIF imaging and laser holographic imaging

Flowfield characterization has been accomplished for several fuel injector configurations using simultaneous planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) and laser holographic imaging (LHI). The experiments were carried out in the GASL-NASA HYPULSE real gas expansion tube facility, a pulsed facility with steady test times of about 350 microsec. The tests were done at simulated Mach numbers 13.5 and 17. The focus of this paper is on the measurement technologies used and their application in a research facility. The HYPULSE facility, the models used for the experiments, and the setup for the LHI and PLIF measurements are described. Measurement challenges and solutions are discussed. Results are presented for experiments with several fuel injector configurations and several equivalence ratios

A comparison of the fluency of oral, written and multiple-choice recall after silent reading of five grade levels

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit

Management of Children With Chronic Wet Cough and Protracted Bacterial Bronchitis CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report

BACKGROUND: Wet or productive cough is common in children with chronic cough. We formulated recommendations based on systematic reviews related to the management of chronic wet cough in children (aged METHODS: We used the CHEST expert cough panel\u27s protocol for systematic reviews and the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) methodologic guidelines and GRADE framework (the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). Data from the systematic reviews in conjunction with patients\u27 values and preferences and the clinical context were used to form recommendations. Delphi methodology was used to obtain consensus for the recommendations/suggestions made. RESULTS: Combining data from the systematic reviews, we found high-quality evidence in children aged 4 weeks\u27 duration) wet/productive cough that using appropriate antibiotics improves cough resolution, and further investigations (eg, flexible bronchoscopy, chest CT scans, immunity tests) should be undertaken when specific cough pointers (eg, digital clubbing) are present. When the wet cough does not improve following 4 weeks of antibiotic treatment, there is moderate-quality evidence that further investigations should be considered to look for an underlying disease. New recommendations include the recognition of the clinical diagnostic entity of protracted bacterial bronchitis. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the 2006 Cough Guidelines, there is now high-quality evidence for some, but not all, aspects of the management of chronic wet cough in specialist settings. However, further studies (particularly in primary health) are required

Ariel - Volume 9 Number 5

Executive Editor Seth B. Paul Associate Editor Warren J. Ventriglia Business Manager Fredric Jay Matlin University News John Patrick Welch World News George Robert Coar Editorials Editor Steve Levine Features Mark Rubin Brad Feldstein Sports Editor Eli Saleeby Photo Editor Ken Buckwalter Circulation Victor Onufreiczuk Lee Wugofski Graphics and Art Steve Hulkower Commons Editor Brenda Peterso

Lightweight, Low-CTE Tubes Made From Biaxially Oriented LCPs

Tubes made from biaxially oriented liquid-crystal polymers (LCPs) have been developed for use as penetrations on cryogenic tanks. ( Penetrations in this context denotes feed lines, vent lines, and sensor tubes, all of which contribute to the undesired conduction of heat into the tanks.) In comparison with corresponding prior cryogenic-tank penetrations made from stainless steels and nickel alloys, the LCP penetrations offer advantages of less weight and less thermal conduction. An additional major advantage of LCP components is that one can tailor their coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs). The estimated cost of continuous production of LCP tubes of typical sizes is about $1.27/ft ($4.17/m) [based on 1998 prices]. LCP tubes that are compatible with liquid oxygen and that feature tailored biaxial molecular orientation and quasi-isotropic properties (including quasi-isotropic CTE) have been fabricated by a combination of proprietary and patented techniques that involve the use of counterrotating dies (CRDs). Tailoring of the angle of molecular orientation is what makes it possible to tailor the CTE over a wide range to match the CTEs of adjacent penetrations of other tank components; this, in turn, makes it possible to minimize differential-thermal expansion stresses that arise during thermal cycling. The fabrication of biaxially oriented LCP tubes by use of CRDs is not new in itself. The novelty of the present development lies in tailoring the orientations and thus the CTEs and other mechanical properties of the LCPs for the intended cryogenic applications and in modifications of the CRDs for this purpose. The LCP tubes and the 304-stainless-steel tubes that the LCP tubes were intended to supplant were tested with respect to burst strength, permeability, thermal conductivity, and CTE

Reassuring and managing patients with concerns about swine flu: Qualitative interviews with callers to NHS Direct

Abstract Background During the early stages of the 2009 swine flu (influenza H1N1) outbreak, the large majority of patients who contacted the health services about the illness did not have it. In the UK, the NHS Direct telephone service was used by many of these patients. We used qualitative interviews to identify the main reasons why people approached NHS Direct with concerns about swine flu and to identify aspects of their contact which were reassuring, using a framework approach. Methods 33 patients participated in semi-structured interviews. All patients had telephoned NHS Direct between 11 and 14 May with concerns about swine flu and had been assessed as being unlikely to have the illness. Results Reasons for seeking advice about swine flu included: the presence of unexpectedly severe flu-like symptoms; uncertainties about how one can catch swine flu; concern about giving it to others; pressure from friends or employers; and seeking 'peace of mind.' Most participants found speaking to NHS Direct reassuring or useful. Helpful aspects included: having swine flu ruled out; receiving an alternative explanation for symptoms; clarification on how swine flu is transmitted; and the perceived credibility of NHS Direct. No-one reported anything that had increased their anxiety and only one participant subsequently sought additional advice about swine flu from elsewhere. Conclusions Future major incidents involving other forms of chemical, biological or radiological hazards may also cause large numbers of unexposed people to seek health advice. Our data suggest that providing telephone triage and information is helpful in such instances, particularly where advice can be given via a trusted, pre-existing service.</p

Bidirectional Association Between Depression and Metabolic Syndrome

OBJECTIVE Epidemiological studies have repeatedly investigated the association between depression and metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the results have been inconsistent. This meta-analysis aimed to summarize the current evidence from cross-sectional and prospective cohort studies that evaluated this association. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases were searched for articles published up to January 2012. Cross-sectional and cohort studies that reported an association between the two conditions in adults were included. Data on prevalence, incidence, unadjusted or adjusted odds ratio (OR), and 95% CI were extracted or provided by the authors. The pooled OR was calculated separately for cross-sectional and cohort studies using random-effects models. The I2 statistic was used to assess heterogeneity. RESULTS The search yielded 29 cross-sectional studies (n = 155,333): 27 studies reported unadjusted OR with a pooled estimate of 1.42 (95% CI 1.28–1.57; I2 = 55.1%); 11 studies reported adjusted OR with depression as the outcome (1.27 [1.07–1.57]; I2 = 60.9%), and 12 studies reported adjusted OR with MetS as the outcome (1.34 [1.18–1.51]; I2 = 0%). Eleven cohort studies were found (2 studies reported both directions): 9 studies (n = 26,936 with 2,316 new-onset depression case subjects) reported adjusted OR with depression as the outcome (1.49 [1.19–1.87]; I2 = 56.8%), 4 studies (n = 3,834 with 350 MetS case subjects) reported adjusted OR with MetS as the outcome (1.52 [1.20–1.91]; I2 = 0%). CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate a bidirectional association between depression and MetS. These results support early detection and management of depression among patients with MetS and vice versa