The Apparent Madness of Crowds: Irrational collective behavior emerging from interactions among rational agents

Standard economic theory assumes that agents in markets behave rationally. However, the observation of extremely large fluctuations in the price of financial assets that are not correlated to changes in their fundamental value, as well as the extreme instance of financial bubbles and crashes, imply that markets (at least occasionally) do display irrational behavior. In this paper, we briefly outline our recent work demonstrating that a market with interacting agents having bounded rationality can display price fluctuations that are {\em quantitatively} similar to those seen in real markets.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, to appear in Proceedings of International Workshop on "Econophysics of Stock Markets and Minority Games" (Econophys-Kolkata II), Feb 14-17, 200

Use of 2nd and 3rd Level Correlation Analysis for Studying Degradation in Polycrystalline Thin-Film Solar Cells

The correlation of stress-induced changes in the performance of laboratory-made CdTe solar cells with various 2nd and 3rd level metrics is discussed. The overall behavior of aggregated data showing how cell efficiency changes as a function of open-circuit voltage (Voc), shortcircuit current density (Jsc), and fill factor (FF) is explained using a two-diode, PSpice model in which degradation is simulated by systematically changing model parameters. FF shows the highest correlation with performance during stress, and is subsequently shown to be most affected by shunt resistance, recombination and in some cases voltage-dependent collection. Large decreases in Jsc as well as increasing rates of Voc degradation are related to voltage-dependent collection effects and catastrophic shunting respectively. Large decreases in Voc in the absence of catastrophic shunting are attributed to increased recombination. The relevance of capacitance derived data correlated with both Voc and FF is discussed

Effect of Hysteresis on Measurements of Thin-Film Cell Performance

Transient or hysteresis effects in polycrystalline thin film CdS/CdTe cells are a function of pre-measurement voltage bias and whether Cu is introduced as an intentional dopant during back contact fabrication. When Cu is added, the current-density (J) vs. voltage (V) measurements performed in a reverse-to-forward voltage direction will yield higher open-circuit voltage (Voc), up to 10 mV, and smaller short-circuit current density (Jsc), by up to 2 mA/cm2, relative to scanning voltage in a forward-to-reverse direction. The variation at the maximum power point, Pmax, is however small. The resulting variation in FF can be as large as 3%. When Cu is not added, hysteresis in both Voc and Jsc is negligible however Pmax hysteresis is considerably greater. This behavior corroborates observed changes in depletion width, Wd, derived from capacitance (C) vs. voltage (V) scans. Measured values of Wd are always smaller in reverse-to-forward voltage scans, and conversely, larger in the forward-to-reverse voltage direction. Transient ion drift (TID) measurements performed on Cu-containing cells do not show ionic behavior suggesting that capacitance transients are more likely due to electronic capture-emission processes. J-V curve simulation using Pspice shows that increased transient capacitance during light-soak stress at 100 ºC correlates with increased space-charge recombination. Voltage-dependent collection however was not observed to increase with stress in these cells

On Spatial Consensus Formation: Is the Sznajd Model Different from a Voter Model?

In this paper, we investigate the so-called ``Sznajd Model'' (SM) in one dimension, which is a simple cellular automata approach to consensus formation among two opposite opinions (described by spin up or down). To elucidate the SM dynamics, we first provide results of computer simulations for the spatio-temporal evolution of the opinion distribution $L(t)$, the evolution of magnetization $m(t)$, the distribution of decision times $P(\tau)$ and relaxation times $P(\mu)$. In the main part of the paper, it is shown that the SM can be completely reformulated in terms of a linear VM, where the transition rates towards a given opinion are directly proportional to frequency of the respective opinion of the second-nearest neighbors (no matter what the nearest neighbors are). So, the SM dynamics can be reduced to one rule, ``Just follow your second-nearest neighbor''. The equivalence is demonstrated by extensive computer simulations that show the same behavior between SM and VM in terms of $L(t)$, $m(t)$, $P(\tau)$, $P(\mu)$, and the final attractor statistics. The reformulation of the SM in terms of a VM involves a new parameter $\sigma$, to bias between anti- and ferromagnetic decisions in the case of frustration. We show that $\sigma$ plays a crucial role in explaining the phase transition observed in SM. We further explore the role of synchronous versus asynchronous update rules on the intermediate dynamics and the final attractors. Compared to the original SM, we find three additional attractors, two of them related to an asymmetric coexistence between the opposite opinions.Comment: 22 pages, 20 figures. For related publications see http://www.ais.fraunhofer.de/~fran

Correlations of Capacitance-Voltage Hysteresis With Thin-Film CdTe Solar Cell Performance During Accelerated Lifetime Testing

In this paper we present the correlation of CdTe solar cell performance with capacitance-voltage hysteresis, defined presently as the difference in capacitance measured at zero-volt bias when collecting such data with different pre-measurement bias conditions. These correlations were obtained on CdTe cells stressed under conditions of 1-sun illumination, open-circuit bias, and an acceleration temperature of approximately 100 ºC

On the infimum attained by a reflected L\'evy process

This paper considers a L\'evy-driven queue (i.e., a L\'evy process reflected at 0), and focuses on the distribution of $M(t)$, that is, the minimal value attained in an interval of length $t$ (where it is assumed that the queue is in stationarity at the beginning of the interval). The first contribution is an explicit characterization of this distribution, in terms of Laplace transforms, for spectrally one-sided L\'evy processes (i.e., either only positive jumps or only negative jumps). The second contribution concerns the asymptotics of \prob{M(T_u)> u} (for different classes of functions $T_u$ and $u$ large); here we have to distinguish between heavy-tailed and light-tailed scenarios

Implied volatility of basket options at extreme strikes

In the paper, we characterize the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility of a basket call option at large and small strikes in a variety of settings with increasing generality. First, we obtain an asymptotic formula with an error bound for the left wing of the implied volatility, under the assumption that the dynamics of asset prices are described by the multidimensional Black-Scholes model. Next, we find the leading term of asymptotics of the implied volatility in the case where the asset prices follow the multidimensional Black-Scholes model with time change by an independent increasing stochastic process. Finally, we deal with a general situation in which the dependence between the assets is described by a given copula function. In this setting, we obtain a model-free tail-wing formula that links the implied volatility to a special characteristic of the copula called the weak lower tail dependence function

Partition functions and double-trace deformations in AdS/CFT

We study the effect of a relevant double-trace deformation on the partition function (and conformal anomaly) of a CFT at large N and its dual picture in AdS. Three complementary previous results are brought into full agreement with each other: bulk and boundary computations, as well as their formal identity. We show the exact equality between the dimensionally regularized partition functions or, equivalently, fluctuational determinants involved. A series of results then follows: (i) equality between the renormalized partition functions for all d; (ii) for all even d, correction to the conformal anomaly; (iii) for even d, the mapping entails a mixing of UV and IR effects on the same side (bulk) of the duality, with no precedent in the leading order computations; and finally, (iv) a subtle relation between overall coefficients, volume renormalization and IR-UV connection. All in all, we get a clean test of the AdS/CFT correspondence beyond the classical SUGRA approximation in the bulk and at subleading O(1) order in the large-N expansion on the boundary.Comment: 18 pages, uses JHEP3.cls. Published JHEP versio

Determinant and Weyl anomaly of Dirac operator: a holographic derivation

We present a holographic formula relating functional determinants: the fermion determinant in the one-loop effective action of bulk spinors in an asymptotically locally AdS background, and the determinant of the two-point function of the dual operator at the conformal boundary. The formula originates from AdS/CFT heuristics that map a quantum contribution in the bulk partition function to a subleading large-N contribution in the boundary partition function. We use this holographic picture to address questions in spectral theory and conformal geometry. As an instance, we compute the type-A Weyl anomaly and the determinant of the iterated Dirac operator on round spheres, express the latter in terms of Barnes' multiple gamma function and gain insight into a conjecture by B\"ar and Schopka.Comment: 11 pages; new comments and references added, typos correcte