MONETARY EXCHANGE RATE MODEL REVISITED: COINTEGRATION AND FORECASTING IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA

ABSTRACT This study re-examines the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals link with in a panel data framework. Pure time series and pooled time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models (Sarantis (1994) and Groen (2000)). Using recently developed Panel Data Techniques; we would test the exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in a quarterly panel of 19 countries mostly from developed region extending from 1973.1 to 1997.1. Present analysis would be centered on three issues. First, we test whether exchange rates cointegrated with long run determinants predicted by economic theory. For this purpose, we would be employed Pedroni (1997) and Larsson et al (2001) panel cointegration tests for empirical validation of the study. Second, we will also test the short run implications of exchange rate model. These short run implications will be tested; through adapting the panel VEC model the short run identification schemes of Johansen and Juselius (1994). The last issue is to examine the ability for monetary fundamentals to forecast future exchange rate returns. The present endeavor will follow Mark and Sul (2001) approach for forecasting in the case of Panel Data Testing.Panel cointegration; Prediction; Exchange rates.

Kemampuan Pemecahan Masalah Siswa dengan Penerapan Modeling Instruction pada Konsep Listrik Dinamis

This research aims to describe the problem solving skill of student in class X-7 SMA Negeri 5 Pekanbaru with the implementation of Modeling Instruction in lesson dynamic electric. The research used pre-experimental with one-shot case study design.The subjects were students of class X-7 totalling 39 students, consisting of 16 male students and 23 female students. The instrument of data collection in this study is the problem solving ability test consists of 5 essay questions. Analysis of the data in this study is a descriptive analysis to see an overview of the problem solving skill of student by using the criteria of the level of problem solving skills . The research showed the problem solving skill of student in class X-7 SMA Negeri 5 Pekanbaru with the implementation of Modeling Instruction in lesson dynamic electric are at a medium level (67,46%). Therefore in teaching physics, by using Modeling Instruction could train problem solving skill of student

Analisis Sektor Basis dan Non Basis di Provinsi Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam

The study was conducted to identify basic sectors and non basics, and to identify thegrowth of basic and non basic sector from 1992 – 2001 in the Provinsi Nanggroe AcehDarussalam. The data were collected from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) and others publishedliteratures regarding to this study. Location Quotient (LQ) and Compounding Factor Analyseswere applied in the study. The results of the study shows that from nine sectors it was knownthat mines sectors, processing industry and agriculture sector are the basic sectors.Meanwhile, others sectors are the non basic sectors. In addition, the study revealed that thegrowth of the basic and the non basic sectors from 1992 – 2001 are fluctuated

The Factors Influencing Young Voters in Determining the Choice: Case Study of Local Election in Bengkulu

The aim of this study was to create an explanatory model that allows analyzing the factors influencing young voters in determining the choice; case study in local election in Bengkulu. We also analyzed the combined relationship between these variables, together with age, and area of origin. We worked with a sample group of 400 young adults between the ages of 18-22 from the city of Bengkulu (Indonesia). The data was subjected to a structural equation modeling SEM analysis, which allowed for the corroboration of the following hypotheses: the higher the education level, the more the interest to choose; the more the experiences, the better the perception to choose; the better the tagline and propaganda, the more interest to choose; the closer the ethnic, the more interest to choose. The result showed that candidate who has more experiences is the most interest candidate to choose by young adult voter . The model obtained allows for discussion of the explanatory value of these variables

Pembelajaran IPA Fisika Berbasis Outdoor-inquiry untuk Meningkatkan Keterampilan Proses Sains Siswa Dikelas VIII SMPN 5 Pekanbaru

The purpose of this study was to described and know the effectiveness of the improvement Physics process skills in the class VIII Junior High School 5 Pekanbaru. approach study outdoor inquiry in light materials. The research was conducted from February 2016 until mei 2016 by population all of students in class VIII junior high school 5 Pekanbaru.The plan in this research is design Intact Group comparasion, with the class VIII8 as an experimental class and class VIII7 as the control class. The research instrument used is Physics process skills achievement test array of aspect: formulate, plan, hypothetical, conclude and communicate. The results of the research indicated of all aspect 86.8% in very well categories and very efectively in the class VIII8 and other hand 80.97% in good category and effectively. As conclution approach study outdoor inquiry can improve the Physics process skills of student junior High School 5 Pekanbaru

Identifikasi Sinyal Ecg Irama Myocardial Ischemia Dengan Pendekatan Fuzzy Logic

The heart is one of vital organs in human body. Incidence of heart disease can be fatal for the patient. Myocardial ischemia, the disease that is often suffered by the human, is a disease due to clogged heart arteries blood vessels. One of the ways to detect this disease is by reading the graph output of electrocardiogram (ECG) signal. ECG signal represents the condition and activity of the heart. Specialized knowledge, accuration and expertise are required to read ECG graph. To help expert or doctor, expert system based on artificial intelligent, such as Fuzzy Logic approach, can be applied to improve diagnostic accuracy and thoroughness. Fuzzy logic can be applied because of it flexibility to understand the linguistic variables used in identifying myocardial ischemia disease

Quantum correlation games

A new approach to play games quantum mechanically is proposed. We consider two players who perform measurements in an EPR-type setting. The payoff relations are defined as functions of correlations, i.e. without reference to classical or quantum mechanics. Classical bi-matrix games are reproduced if the input states are classical and perfectly anti-correlated, that is, for a classical correlation game. However, for a quantum correlation game, with an entangled singlet state as input, qualitatively different solutions are obtained. For example, the Prisoners' Dilemma acquires a Nash equilibrium if both players apply a mixed strategy. It appears to be conceptually impossible to reproduce the properties of quantum correlation games within the framework of classical games

Amalan pengurusan keselamatan bengkel kemahiran hidup (KHB) Sekolah Menengah Harian Daerah Batu Pahat

Kajian ini dijalankan untuk mengkaji sejauhmanakah persepsi pelajar terhadap amalan pengurusan keselamatan dari aspek keselamatan alatan dan bahan, diri dan rakan serta keselamatan am di bengkel Kemahiran Hidup sekolah menengah harian daerah Batu Pahat. Kajian berbentuk kuantitatif dilaksanakan di empat buah sekolah menengah harian daerah Batu Pahat iaitu SMK Datin Onn Jaafar, SMK Banang Jaya, SMK Dato Onn dan SMK Seri Gading. Sampel kajian terdiri daripada 350 orang pelajar tingkatan dua yang mengambil matapelajaran KHB dan data dikumpul menggunakan instrumen borang soal selidik. Dapatan kajian dianalisis menggunakan perisian Winsteps Version 3.69.1.11 dengan pendekatan Model Pengukuran Rasch sepenuhnya. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik analisis diskriptif dan analisis inferensi iaitu ujian-t bagi menguji hipotesis kajian. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa amalan pengurusan keselamatan di bengkel diamalkan secara sederhana bagi ketiga-tiga aspek tersebut. Terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan di antara pelajar di bandar dan luar bandar iaitu t=-4.08 dan p=0.000 di mana nilai min ukuranya pula ialah -.19. Beberapa cadangan telah dikemukakan bagi penambahbaikkan seperti mengadakan kempen kesedaran dan menyediakan sudut standard operasi amalan pengurusan keselamatan agar pelajar sentiasa mematuhi peraturan semasa berada di bengkel Kemahiran Hidup

Konsep Diri Wanita Model Fashion Show di Pekanbaru

A woman\u27s life fashion show models synonymous with glamorous lifestyle, nightlife, and even sex. In order to meet the demands and lifestyle as a model, they often do things - negative things like, into prostitution "or being a mistress" This situation results in the emergence of a negative assessment of the community of women who worked as a model, even though it can not be in jendralisis. Departing from this condition researchers are interested to know how the woman\u27s self concept models fashion show in Pekanbaru. This study aims to determine the dimensions of the internal and external dimensions of the model woman fashion show in Pekanbaru.This study uses qualitative research with phenomenological approach. Subjects consisted of five informants, who were selected through key informant named mas Raymond as the supreme mentor administrators Putri Indonesia Riau representatives, using techniques snowball technique. The study used data collection techniques of observation, interviews, and research documentation. To achieve the validity of the data in this study, researchers used the extension of participation and triangulation. The research shows the internal dimensions of the model woman fashion show in Pekanbaru, self-identity that is a model woman, some of the informants came from poor families, life changed since the model works better established with the result being a mistress. Actors themselves that promiscuity and environmental influences make a drastic change. Self receiver is aware of the bad deeds, received negative comments from the public. Dimensions of the external female models fashion show in Pekanbaru. Physical self, perfect for the main requirement of a model. Moral ethical self, refusing to be grateful, not to close themselves to God. causing properties or characters that are easily affected by the surrounding environment . Self always perform imaging and lies. Self family , very close to the family , very supportive in the profession as a model . Social self is not arrogant if you meet someone who is known , friendly , nice , easy to make friends. But other things with friends in the profession (model ) , do have a sense of competition and jealousy