Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts

Energy models are essential for the development of national or regional deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), providing the necessary analytical framework to systematically explore the system transitions that are required. However, this is challenging due to the long time horizon, the numerous data requirements and the need for transparent, credible approaches that can provide insights into complex transitions. This article explores how this challenge has been met to date, based on a review of the literature and the experiences of practitioners, drawing in particular on the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaborative effort by 16 national modelling teams. The article finds that there are a range of modelling approaches that have been used across different country contexts, chosen for different reasons, with recognized strengths and weaknesses. The key motivations for use of a given approach include being fit-for-purpose, having in-country capacity and the intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility. From the review, a conceptual decision framework for DDP analysis is proposed. This three step process incorporates policy priorities, national characteristics and the model-agnostic principles that drive model choices, considering the needs and capabilities of developed and developing countries, and subject to data and analytical practicalities. Finally an agenda for the further development of modelling approaches is proposed, which is vital for strengthening capacity. These include a focus on model linking, incorporating behaviour and policy impacts, the flexibility to handle distinctive energy systems, incorporating wider environmental constraints and the development of entry-level tools. The latter three are critical for application in developing countries. Policy relevance Following the Paris Agreement, it is essential that modelling approaches are available to enable governments to plan how to decarbonize their economies in the long term. This article takes stock of current practices, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches and proposes how capacity can be strengthened. It also provides some practical guidance on the process of choosing modelling approaches, given national priorities and circumstances. This is particularly relevant as countries revisit their Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the global objective of remaining well below a 2°C average global temperature increase

Negotiating the inhuman: Bakhtin, materiality and the instrumentalization of climate change

The article argues that the work of literary theorist Mikhail M. Bakhtin presents a starting point for thinking about the instrumentalization of climate change. Bakhtin’s conceptualization of human–world relationships, encapsulated in the concept of ‘cosmic terror’, places a strong focus on our perception of the ‘inhuman’. Suggesting a link between the perceived alienness and instability of the world and in the exploitation of the resulting fear of change by political and religious forces, Bakhtin asserts that the latter can only be resisted if our desire for a false stability in the world is overcome. The key to this overcoming of fear, for him, lies in recognizing and confronting the worldly relations of the human body. This consciousness represents the beginning of one’s ‘deautomatization’ from following established patterns of reactions to predicted or real changes. In the vein of several theorists and artists of his time who explored similar ‘deautomatization’ strategies – examples include Shklovsky’s ‘ostranenie’, Brecht’s ‘Verfremdung’, Artaud’s emotional ‘cruelty’ and Bataille’s ‘base materialism’ – Bakhtin proposes a more playful and widely accessible experimentation to deconstruct our ‘habitual picture of the world’. Experimentation is envisioned to take place across the material and the textual to increase possibilities for action. Through engaging with Bakhtin’s ideas, this article seeks to draw attention to relations between the imagination of the world and political agency, and the need to include these relations in our own experiments with creating climate change awareness

Harmonic moment dynamics in Laplacian growth

Harmonic moments are integrals of integer powers of z = x+iy over a domain. Here the domain is an exterior of a bubble of air growing in an oil layer between two horizontal closely spaced plates. Harmonic moments are a natural basis for such Laplacian growth phenomena because, unlike other representations, these moments linearize the zero surface tension problem (Richardson, 1972), so that all moments except the lowest one are conserved in time. For non-zero surface tension, we show that the the harmonic moments decay in time rather than exhibiting the divergences of other representations. Our laboratory observations confirm the theoretical predictions and demonstrate that an interface dynamics description in terms of harmonic moments is physically realizable and robust. In addition, by extending the theory to include surface tension, we obtain from measurements of the time evolution of the harmonic moments a value for the surface tension that is within 20% of the accepted value.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

The Saffman-Taylor problem on a sphere

The Saffman-Taylor problem addresses the morphological instability of an interface separating two immiscible, viscous fluids when they move in a narrow gap between two flat parallel plates (Hele-Shaw cell). In this work, we extend the classic Saffman-Taylor situation, by considering the flow between two curved, closely spaced, concentric spheres (spherical Hele-Shaw cell). We derive the mode-coupling differential equation for the interface perturbation amplitudes and study both linear and nonlinear flow regimes. The effect of the spherical cell (positive) spatial curvature on the shape of the interfacial patterns is investigated. We show that stability properties of the fluid-fluid interface are sensitive to the curvature of the surface. In particular, it is found that positive spatial curvature inhibits finger tip-splitting. Hele-Shaw flow on weakly negative, curved surfaces is briefly discussed.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figures, RevTex, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Alternaria species associated with early blight epidemics on tomato and other Solanaceae crops in northwestern Algeria

Early blight is a common disease of Solanaceae crops worldwide. The occurrence of Alternaria spp. was studied during three epidemics on tomato in northwestern Algeria. Alternaria was detected in more than 80 % of the diseased plant samples and accounted for more than 50 % of the total fungal isolates recovered from these samples. Morphological and molecular investigations revealed that small-spored isolates producing beaked conidia, i.e. belonging to the section alternaria, were prominent in most of the surveyed locations representing more than 80 % of the total Alternaria isolates in three locations (Mascara, Ain Témouchent and Sidi Belabbèsse). Based on their sporulation patterns they were recognized as A. alternata and A. tenuissima. Small-spored isolates producing conidia without beak and assigned to A. consortialis were also found at a low frequency (< 1 %). Large-spored isolates producing conidia ended by typical long beaks and identified as A. linariae (syn. A. tomatophila), A. solani and A. grandis were also recovered from all the sampled areas and represented 33.8 %, 6.3 % and 1.3 % of the total Alternaria isolates, respectively. Pathogenicity tests on tomato with a selection of 85 strains representative of the isolates collection revealed that all the tested isolates were able to produce extending lesions on inoculated leaves albeit with variable intensity. Large-spored species included the most aggressive isolates. Small-spored Alternaria, although less aggressive than large-spored Alternaria, had the ability to provoke brown necrotic spots and circumstantially developed synergistic interactions in mixed infections with moderately aggressive isolates of A. linariae