Loan sales: another step in the evolution of the short-term credit market

Bank loans ; Asset-backed financing ; Credit

Persistent threats to validity in single‐group interrupted time series analysis with a cross over design

Rationale, aims and objectivesThe basic single‐group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) design has been shown to be susceptible to the most common threat to validity—history—the possibility that some other event caused the observed effect in the time series. A single‐group ITSA with a crossover design (in which the intervention is introduced and withdrawn 1 or more times) should be more robust. In this paper, we describe and empirically assess the susceptibility of this design to bias from history.MethodTime series data from 2 natural experiments (the effect of multiple repeals and reinstatements of Louisiana’s motorcycle helmet law on motorcycle fatalities and the association between the implementation and withdrawal of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign with Russia’s mortality crisis) are used to illustrate that history remains a threat to ITSA validity, even in a crossover design.ResultsBoth empirical examples reveal that the single‐group ITSA with a crossover design may be biased because of history. In the case of motorcycle fatalities, helmet laws appeared effective in reducing mortality (while repealing the law increased mortality), but when a control group was added, it was shown that this trend was similar in both groups. In the case of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign, only when contrasting the results against those of a control group was the withdrawal of the campaign found to be the more likely culprit in explaining the Russian mortality crisis than the collapse of the Soviet Union.ConclusionsEven with a robust crossover design, single‐group ITSA models remain susceptible to bias from history. Therefore, a comparable control group design should be included, whenever possible.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/1/jep12668.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/2/jep12668_am.pd

Dissatisfied with Life or with Being Interviewed? Happiness and Motivation to Participate in a Survey

Information on the number of interviewer contacts allows insights into how people's responses to questions on happiness are connected to the difficulty of reaching potential participants. Using the paradata of the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), this paper continues such research by revealing a strong link between respondent motivation and reported happiness. Analyses of responses by future non-respondents substantiate this finding and shed light on a key question for empirical research on subjective well-being, which is whether the unhappy tend to avoid survey participation or whether the unwilling might respond more negatively when being asked about their satisfaction with life

Recent patterns in downward income mobility: Sinking boats in a rising tide

This paper employs four measures of downward income mobility and 1984–1986 PSID data to examine the extent and possible causes of downward mobility. Despite modest economic growth during this period, a substantial number of Americans experienced downward income mobility, roughly 5% to 20%. The majority of the downwardly mobile initially lived with a nonelderly, Caucasian, male, less-educated, working household head. Logit analysis indicates that the following factors significantly increase the odds of downward income mobility: Male headship; minority headship; family dissolution; nest-leaving; and having a head who works in mining, construction, manufacturing, transportation, trade, or farming. The following factors significantly lower the odds of downward income mobility: Retaining the same household head; having a college-educated head; having a head who works in a professional, technical, or operative occupation; and having a head in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43689/1/11205_2005_Article_BF01078211.pd

Re-Engaging with Survey Non-Respondents: The BHPS, SOEP and HILDA Survey Experience

Previous research into the correlates and determinants of non-response in longitudinal surveys has focused exclusively on why it is that respondents at one survey wave choose not to participate at future waves. This is very understandable if non-response is always an absorbing state, but in many longitudinal surveys, and certainly most household panels, this is not the case. Indeed, in these surveys it is normal practice to attempt to make contact with many non-respondents at the next wave. This study differs from previous research by examining the process of re-engagement with previous wave non-respondents. Drawing on data from three national household panels it is found that the re-engagement decision is indeed distinctly different from the decision about continued participation. Further, these differences have clear implications for the way panel surveys should be administered given the desire to enhance overall response rates

Earnings Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany: The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias

Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of Germany's immigrant population renders general conclusions on the degree of economic integration difficult. Using a rich longitudinal data-set, this paper tests for differences in economic assimilation profiles of four entry cohorts of foreign-born immigrants and ethnic Germans. The importance of time-invariant individual unobserved heterogeneity and panel attrition in determining the speed of assimilation is analysed. We find evidence for heterogeneity in the assimilation profiles and for robust assimilation profiles for two entry cohorts only. Omitted variables, systematic sample attrition and the presence of second generation immigrants in the sample influence the speed of assimilation, but do not change the overall picture