Commentary on “Transparent modelling of influenza incidence”: On big data models for infectious disease forecasting

peer reviewe

Quantum-state control in optical lattices

We study the means to prepare and coherently manipulate atomic wave packets in optical lattices, with particular emphasis on alkali atoms in the far-detuned limit. We derive a general, basis independent expression for the lattice operator, and show that its off-diagonal elements can be tailored to couple the vibrational manifolds of separate magnetic sublevels. Using these couplings one can evolve the state of a trapped atom in a quantum coherent fashion, and prepare pure quantum states by resolved-sideband Raman cooling. We explore the use of atoms bound in optical lattices to study quantum tunneling and the generation of macroscopic superposition states in a double-well potential. Far-off-resonance optical potentials lend themselves particularly well to reservoir engineering via well controlled fluctuations in the potential, making the atom/lattice system attractive for the study of decoherence and the connection between classical and quantum physics.Comment: 35 pages including 8 figures. To appear in Phys. Rev. A. March 199

Electricity Demand Forecasting: the Uruguayan Case

International audienc

Global Activation of CD8+ Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Correlates with an Impairment in Regulatory T Cells in Patients with Generalized Vitiligo

Melanocyte-specific CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) play a pivotal role in vitiligo-induced depigmentation. Yet, the mechanisms underlying the high frequency of generalized autoimmune disorders associated with generalized vitiligo (GV) are unknown. We hypothesized that an imbalance between activated CD8+ CTLs and regulatory T cells (Tregs) exists in patients with GV . Assessment of the circulating CD8+ CTLs and Tregs by flow cytometric analysis revealed an obvious expansion of CD8+ CTLs and a concomitant decrease in Treg cells in GV patients. The percentages of skin infiltrating CD8+ CTLs and Tregs were evaluated by immunohistochemistry and revealed dramatically increased numbers of both CD8+ CTLs and Tregs in the perilesional skin of GV patients. However, peripheral Tregs were impaired in their ability to suppress the proliferation and cytolytic capacity of autologous CD8+ T cells, suggesting that a functional failure of Tregs and the hyper-activation of CD8+ CTLs may contribute to progressive GV. Our data indicate that reduced numbers and impaired function of natural Tregs fail to control the widespread activation of CD8+ CTLs, which leads to the destruction of melanocytes and contributes to the elevated frequency of various associated autoimmune diseases. This knowledge furthers our understanding of the mechanisms of immune tolerance that are impaired in GV patients and may aid in the future development of effective immunotherapy for GV patients

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Efficacy and safety of ciclosporin versus methotrexate in the treatment of severe atopic dermatitis in children and young people (TREAT): a multicentre parallel group assessor-blinded clinical trial

Background: Conventional systemic drugs are used to treat children and young people (CYP) with severe atopic dermatitis (AD) worldwide, but no robust randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence exists regarding their efficacy and safety in this population. While novel therapies have expanded therapeutic options, their high cost means traditional agents remain important, especially in lower-resource settings. Objectives: To compare the safety and efficacy of ciclosporin (CyA) with methotrexate (MTX) in CYP with severe AD in the TREatment of severe Atopic Eczema Trial (TREAT) trial. Methods: We conducted a parallel group assessor-blinded RCT in 13 UK and Irish centres. Eligible participants aged 2–16 years and unresponsive to potent topical treatment were randomized to either oral CyA (4 mg kg–1 daily) or MTX (0.4 mg kg–1 weekly) for 36 weeks and followed-up for 24 weeks. Co-primary outcomes were change from baseline to 12 weeks in Objective Severity Scoring of Atopic Dermatitis (o-SCORAD) and time to first significant flare (relapse) after treatment cessation. Secondary outcomes included change in quality of life (QoL) from baseline to 60 weeks; number of participant-reported flares following treatment cessation; proportion of participants achieving ≥ 50% improvement in Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI 50) and ≥ 75% improvement in EASI (EASI 75); and stratification of outcomes by filaggrin status. Results: In total, 103 participants were randomized (May 2016–February 2019): 52 to CyA and 51 to MTX. CyA showed greater improvement in disease severity by 12 weeks [mean difference in o-SCORAD –5.69, 97.5% confidence interval (CI) –10.81 to –0.57 (P=0.01)]. More participants achieved ≥ 50% improvement in o-SCORAD (o-SCORAD 50) at 12 weeks in the CyA arm vs. the MTX arm [odds ratio (OR) 2.60, 95% CI 1.23–5.49; P=0.01]. By 60 weeks MTX was superior (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.13–0.85; P=0.02), a trend also seen for ≥ 75% improvement in o-SCORAD (o-SCORAD 75), EASI 50 and EASI 75. Participant-reported flares post-treatment were higher in the CyA arm (OR 3.22, 95% CI 0.42–6.01; P=0.02). QoL improved with both treatments and was sustained after treatment cessation. Filaggrin status did not affect outcomes. The frequency of adverse events (AEs) was comparable between both treatments. Five (10%) participants on CyA and seven (14%) on MTX experienced a serious AE. Conclusions: Both CyA and MTX proved effective in CYP with severe AD over 36 weeks. Participants who received CyA showed a more rapid response to treatment, while MTX induced more sustained disease control after discontinuation

Forecasting: theory and practice

peer reviewedForecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases