Système de suivi et d'analyse des cambriolages appliqué dans des polices suisses

Un dispositif moderne d'analyse de la délinquance sérielle s'est développé depuis de nombreuses années dans plusieurs cantons suisses. Ses fondements théoriques sont compatibles avec les recherches académiques effectuées durant les 15 dernières années. Il se base en particulier sur l'exploitation systématique des traces matérielles, ainsi que sur un système de classification fondé sur les approches situationnelles. Cet instrument a évolué de manière itérative, en recherchant systématiquement un bon équilibre entre l'efficacité de la détection de séries et la simplicité requise par les contraintes pragmatiques. Un certain degré d'harmonisation a été également atteint grâce à un système de codification appliqué dans les centres régionaux d'analyse. Ces méthodes sont à concevoir dans un système complexe qui implique l'ensemble des membres de l'organisation. L'implication à différents niveaux de responsabilité varie beaucoup d'une police à une autre. De plus, la tentation d'orienter les méthodes autour d'outils particuliers comme des systèmes d'information géographique ou des banques de données spécifiques, peut considérablement diminuer l'efficacité du système. Inondés de promesses dans un contexte commercial agressif, les managers se laissent trop souvent séduire par ce genre de développement sans véritable fondement scientifique. Cette approche orientée sur le moyen (la technique) plus que sur la fin et la méthode constitue un risque fondamental pour la pérennité de ces structures. En effet, l'échec d'un outil acheté est ensuite trop souvent assimilé à l'échec de la structure. Toutefois, la solidité du dispositif développé malgré les nombreux obstacles rencontrés montre que sa place et ses méthodes sont maintenant mieux reconnues. Le développement du renseignement criminel sur le plan européen imposera à la Suisse une réflexion plus globale sur son système de renseignement aux niveaux central, régional et local, mais les infrastructures qui existent déjà permettront cette adaptation

La statistique policière de la criminalité en Suisse peut-elle s'envisager dans le cadre du renseignement criminel

Les polices suisses s'orientent vers un fonctionnement davantage basé sur le renseignement criminel, notamment pour s'aligner sur les évolutions du système de sécurité européen. Parallèlement, la nouvelle statistique policière de la criminalité nécessite un engagement considérable de ressources pour adapter les systèmes informatisés et pour saisir les données. On peut postuler que cette statistique ne sera utile aux polices que si elle peut s'intégrer dans un modèle cohérent de renseignement. La comparaison entre le cycle du renseignement et les phases de production de la statistique policière montre le potentiel des données statistiques dans ce cadre. Cette approche met aussi en évidence une série de difficultés fondamentales que le nouveau système très ambitieux ne pourra pas surmonter. Finalement, il y a un urgent besoin en Suisse de définir et mettre en oeuvre une véritable architecture cohérente qui assure la fluidité des flux d'information à tous les niveaux géographiques afin de favoriser la pratique du renseignement criminel et y intégrer l'exploitation des statistiques policières

The Hubble Constant determined through an inverse distance ladder including quasar time delays and Type Ia supernovae

Context. The precise determination of the present-day expansion rate of the Universe, expressed through the Hubble constant $H_0$, is one of the most pressing challenges in modern cosmology. Assuming flat $\Lambda$CDM, $H_0$ inference at high redshift using cosmic-microwave-background data from Planck disagrees at the 4.4$\sigma$ level with measurements based on the local distance ladder made up of parallaxes, Cepheids and Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), often referred to as "Hubble tension". Independent, cosmological-model-insensitive ways to infer $H_0$ are of critical importance. Aims. We apply an inverse-distance-ladder approach, combining strong-lensing time-delay-distance measurements with SN Ia data. By themselves, SNe Ia are merely good relative distance indicators, but by anchoring them to strong gravitational lenses one can obtain an $H_0$ measurement that is relatively insensitive to other cosmological parameters. Methods. A cosmological parameter estimate is performed for different cosmological background models, both for strong-lensing data alone and for the combined lensing + SNe Ia data sets. Results. The cosmological-model dependence of strong-lensing $H_0$ measurements is significantly mitigated through the inverse distance ladder. In combination with SN Ia data, the inferred $H_0$ consistently lies around 73-74 km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, regardless of the assumed cosmological background model. Our results agree nicely with those from the local distance ladder, but there is a >2$\sigma$ tension with Planck results, and a ~1.5$\sigma$ discrepancy with results from an inverse distance ladder including Planck, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and SNe Ia. Future strong-lensing distance measurements will reduce the uncertainties in $H_0$ from our inverse distance ladder.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, A&A letters accepted versio

Gestão de políticas públicas: análise do plano nacional de promoção das cadeias de produtos da sociobiodiversidade.

Esta pesquisa objetiva analisar a elaboração do Plano Nacional de Promoção das Cadeias de Produtos da Sociobiodiversidade - PNPSB a partir da metodologia proposta por Dagnino (2013). Com levantamento de documentos, foi possível analisar o PNPSB com a metodologia proposta nas etapas de elaboração, implantação e avaliação do Plano

Etiology and Pathogenesis of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Ovarian cancer is complex disease composed of different histological grades and types. However, the underlying molecular mechanisms involved in the development of different phenotypes remain largely unknown. Epidemiological studies identified multiple exogenous and endogenous risk factors for ovarian cancer development. Among them, an inflammatory stromal microenvironment seems to play a critical role in the initiation of the disease. The interaction between such a microenvironment, genetic polymorphisms, and different epithelial components such as endosalpingiosis, endometriosis, and ovarian inclusion cyst in the ovarian cortex may induce different genetic changes identified in the epithelial component of different histological types of ovarian tumors. Genetic studies on different histological grades and types provide insight into the pathogenetic pathways for the development of different disease phenotypes. However, the link between all these genetic changes and the etiological factors remains to be established

Gas Accretion and Galactic Chemical Evolution: Theory and Observations

This chapter reviews how galactic inflows influence galaxy metallicity. The goal is to discuss predictions from theoretical models, but particular emphasis is placed on the insights that result from using models to interpret observations. Even as the classical G-dwarf problem endures in the latest round of observational confirmation, a rich and tantalizing new phenomenology of relationships between $M_*$, $Z$, SFR, and gas fraction is emerging both in observations and in theoretical models. A consensus interpretation is emerging in which star-forming galaxies do most of their growing in a quiescent way that balances gas inflows and gas processing, and metal dilution with enrichment. Models that explicitly invoke this idea via equilibrium conditions can be used to infer inflow rates from observations, while models that do not assume equilibrium growth tend to recover it self-consistently. Mergers are an overall subdominant mechanism for delivering fresh gas to galaxies, but they trigger radial flows of previously-accreted gas that flatten radial gas-phase metallicity gradients and temporarily suppress central metallicities. Radial gradients are generically expected to be steep at early times and then flattened by mergers and enriched inflows of recycled gas at late times. However, further theoretical work is required in order to understand how to interpret observations. Likewise, more observational work is needed in order to understand how metallicity gradients evolve to high redshifts.Comment: Invited review to appear in Gas Accretion onto Galaxies, Astrophysics and Space Science Library, eds. A. J. Fox & R. Dav\'e, to be published by Springer. 29 pages, 2 figure

H0LiCOW X: Spectroscopic/imaging survey and galaxy-group identification around the strong gravitational lens system WFI2033-4723

Galaxies and galaxy groups located along the line of sight towards gravitationally lensed quasars produce high-order perturbations of the gravitational potential at the lens position. When these perturbation are too large, they can induce a systematic error on $H_0$ of a few-percent if the lens system is used for cosmological inference and the perturbers are not explicitly accounted for in the lens model. In this work, we present a detailed characterization of the environment of the lens system WFI2033-4723 ($z_{\rm src} = 1.662$, $z_{\rm lens}$ = 0.6575), one of the core targets of the H0LICOW project for which we present cosmological inferences in a companion paper (Rusu et al. 2019). We use the Gemini and ESO-Very Large telescopes to measure the spectroscopic redshifts of the brightest galaxies towards the lens, and use the ESO-MUSE integral field spectrograph to measure the velocity-dispersion of the lens ($\sigma_{\rm {los}}= 250^{+15}_{-21}$ km/s) and of several nearby galaxies. In addition, we measure photometric redshifts and stellar masses of all galaxies down to $i < 23$ mag, mainly based on Dark Energy Survey imaging (DR1). Our new catalog, complemented with literature data, more than doubles the number of known galaxy spectroscopic redshifts in the direct vicinity of the lens, expanding to 116 (64) the number of spectroscopic redshifts for galaxies separated by less than 3 arcmin (2 arcmin) from the lens. Using the flexion-shift as a measure of the amplitude of the gravitational perturbation, we identify 2 galaxy groups and 3 galaxies that require specific attention in the lens models. The ESO MUSE data enable us to measure the velocity-dispersions of three of these galaxies. These results are essential for the cosmological inference analysis presented in Rusu et al. (2019).Comment: Matches the version accepted for publication by MNRAS. Note that this paper previously appeared as H0LICOW X

A resource-based analysis of the Gonzaga University men’s basketball program

In recent years, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of firms has been applied to strategic management in the context of sport. Numerous studies have examined the relationship between human resource management and athletic performance, as well as success in sport sponsorship. Other studies employed the RBV in the context of professional sports franchises and a major NCAA athletic program. This paper builds on previous research by using the RBV to show how the effective management of a strategic resource has led to a sustained competitive advantage for the Gonzaga University men’s basketball program. The key resource of the Gonzaga program is identified and evaluated in the context of the RBV, and the strategic decisions made to manage that resource and ultimately create a sustainable competitive advantage are discussed