Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. It does not require any additional programming; a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with different T. Applying this to Smets and Wouters'(2007) medium size US model, we find that while exogenous shock processes are well identified, most of the parameters in the structural equations are not.Bayesian Estimation, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, Identification.

Migrant networks and foreign direct investment

While there exists sizeable literature documenting the importance of ethnic networks for international trade, little attention has been devoted to studying the effects of networks on foreign direct investment (FDI). The existence of ethnic networks may positively affect FDI by promoting information flows across international borders and by serving as a contract enforcement mechanism. This paper investigates the link between the presence of migrants in the United States and U.S. FDI in the migrants'countries of origin, taking into account the potential endogeneity concerns. The results suggest that U.S. FDI abroad is positively correlated with the presence of migrants from the host country. The data further indicate that the relationship between FDI and migration is driven by the presence of migrants with a college education.Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement,Anthropology,Human Migrations&Resettlements

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. It does not require any additional programming; a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with different T. Applying this to Smets and Wouters?(2007) medium size US model, we find that while exogenous shock processes are well identified, most of the parameters in the structural equations are not

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. It does not require any additional programming; a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with different T. Applying this to Smets and Wouters'(2007) medium size US model, we find that while exogenous shock processes are well identified, most of the parameters in the structural equations are not

Non-conventional monetary policies: QE and the DSGE literature

At the zero lower bound, the scale and scope of non-conventional monetary policies have become the key decision variables for monetary policy makers. In the UK, quantitative easing has involved the creation of a fund to purchase medium term dated government bonds with borrowed central bank reserves and so has increased the liquidity of the non-bank financial sector and temporarily eased the budget constraint of HMT. Some of these reserves have been used to increase the extent of capital held by banks and there have also been direct injections of capital into the banking system. We assess some of the issues arising from the three policies by using three separate DSGE models, which take seriously the role of financial frictions. We find that it is possible to correct the effects of a lower zero bound in DSGE models, by (i) offsetting the liquidity premium embedded in long term bonds and/or (ii) adopting countercyclical subsidies to bank capital able and/or (iii) the creation of central bank reserves that reduce the costs of loan supply. But the correct quantitative response and ongoing interaction with standard monetary policy remains an open question

Assessment of ecological quality status of Küçükçekmece Bay (Marmara Sea) by applying BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA and BO2A biotic indexes

This study was carried out to explore the effectiveness of different biotic indexes in the Marmara Sea. The assessment of ecological quality status (EQS) was performed by applying the biotic indexes BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA, BO2A and Shannon-Wienerdiversity, in combination with the estimation of total organic carbon (TOC) content of sediments. BOPA and BO2A indexes tended to overestimate the EQS of the stations. BENTIX was the most efficient index as it demonstrated conceivable EQS results with respect to TOC load and successfuly determined “acceptable” or “not acceptable” status of the stations. TOC content of sediment, which significantly correlated with several benthic measures (S, N, AMBI, BENTIX), proved to be a valuable proxy measure in evaluating the likelihood of benthic impairment. When overall EQS of northern Marmara Sea was discussed, the region was designated as ecologically disturbed with only 25.7% of the stations in acceptable status

Assessment of ecological quality status of Küçükçekmece Bay (Marmara Sea) by applying BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA and BO2A biotic indexes

This study was carried out to explore the effectiveness of different biotic indexes in the Marmara Sea. The assessment of ecological quality status (EQS) was performed by applying the biotic indexes BENTIX, AMBI, BOPA, BO2A and Shannon-Wienerdiversity, in combination with the estimation of total organic carbon (TOC) content of sediments. BOPA and BO2A indexes tended to overestimate the EQS of the stations. BENTIX was the most efficient index as it demonstrated conceivable EQS results with respect to TOC load and successfuly determined “acceptable” or “not acceptable” status of the stations. TOC content of sediment, which significantly correlated with several benthic measures (S, N, AMBI, BENTIX), proved to be a valuable proxy measure in evaluating the likelihood of benthic impairment. When overall EQS of northern Marmara Sea was discussed, the region was designated as ecologically disturbed with only 25.7% of the stations in acceptable status

LOFAR discovery of a double radio halo system in Abell 1758 and radio/X-ray study of the cluster pair

Radio halos and radio relics are diffuse synchrotron sources that extend over Mpc-scales and are found in a number of merger galaxy clusters. They are believed to form as a consequence of the energy that is dissipated by turbulence and shocks in the intra-cluster medium (ICM). However, the precise physical processes that generate these steep synchrotron spectrum sources are still poorly constrained. We present a new LOFAR observation of the double galaxy cluster Abell 1758. This system is composed of A1758N, a massive cluster hosting a known giant radio halo, and A1758S, which is a less massive cluster whose diffuse radio emission is confirmed here for the first time. Our observations have revealed a radio halo and a candidate radio relic in A1758S, and a suggestion of emission along the bridge connecting the two systems which deserves confirmation. We combined the LOFAR data with archival VLA and GMRT observations to constrain the spectral properties of the diffuse emission. We also analyzed a deep archival Chandra observation and used this to provide evidence that A1758N and A1758S are in a pre-merger phase. The ICM temperature across the bridge that connects the two systems shows a jump which might indicate the presence of a transversal shock generated in the initial stage of the merger

Comparison of leaf stomatal features in some local and foreign apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) genotypes

The objective of this study was to determine the leaf stomatal features of some local and foreign apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) cultivars. Stomata frequency, size and stomatal conductance of leaves of twentyapricot genotypes from inside and outside of Turkey were measured. The leaf stomatal frequency significantly varied among the apricot cultivars. The highest leaf stomata frequency was found in cv.Orange Red (349 stomata/mm2) and lowest was in cv. Cnef (182.2 stomata/mm2). Mean stomata size was 81.8 m. In 2006 stomatal conductance was the lowest (84 mmol m-2 s-1) in ‘Roxana’ and the highest (263 mmol m-2 s-1) in ‘Thyrinthe’ cultivars. In 2007, the lowest stomatal conductance (143 mmol m-2 s-1) was found in ‘Hasanbey’ cultivar and the highest (405 mmol m-2 s-1) was in ‘Cnef’ cultivar. Generally in the second year counductance values were higher which was probably due to higher values of maximum air temperature. The differences in leaf stomatal conductance values that existed among the genotypes can be taken into consideration as selection criteria for apricots to be grown in regions with higher summer temperatures

Mechanism of action of probiotics

The modern diet doesn't provide the required amount of beneficial bacteria. Maintenance of a proper microbial ecology in the host is the main criteria to be met for a healthy growth. Probiotics are one such alternative that are supplemented to the host where by and large species of Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium and Saccharomyces are considered as main probiotics. The field of probiotics has made stupendous strides though there is no major break through in the identification of their mechanism of action. They exert their activity primarily by strengthening the intestinal barrier and immunomodulation. The main objective of the study was to provide a deep insight into the effect of probiotics against the diseases, their applications and proposed mechanism of action