First mission - towards a global harmonised in-situ data repository for forest biomass datasets validation

Global measurements of forest height, biomass are urgently needed as essential climate and ecosystem variables, but can benefit from greater co-operation between remote sensing (RS) and forest ecological communities. The Forest Observation System - FOS (https://forest-observation-system.net/ [https://forest-observation- system.net/]) is an international cooperation to establish a global in-situ forest biomass database to support earth observation and to encourage investment in relevant field-based observations and science. FOS aims to link the RS community with ecologists who measure forest biomass and estimating biodiversity in the field. The FOS aims to overcome data sharing issues and introduce a standard biomass data flow from tree-level measurement to the plot-level aggregation served in the most suitable form for the RS. Ecologists benefit from the FOS with improved access to global biomass information, data standards, gap identification and potentially improved funding opportunities to address the known gaps and deficiencies in the data. FOS closely collaborate with the CTFS-ForestGEO, the ForestPlots.net (incl. RAfNFOR, AfriTRON and T-FORCES), AusCover, TmFO and the llASA network. FOS is an open initiative with other networks and teams most welcome to join. The online database provides open access for forest plot location, canopy height and above-ground biomass. Plot size is 0.25ha or larger. Comparison of plot biomass data with available global and regional maps (incl. Kindermann et al., 2013; Thurner et al., 2013; Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012; Avitabile et al., 2016; Hu et al., 2016; Santoro et al., 2018) shows wide range of uncertainties associated with biomass estimation

Ecological equivalence: a realistic assumption for niche theory as a testable alternative to neutral theory

Hubbell's 2001 neutral theory unifies biodiversity and biogeography by modelling steady-state distributions of species richness and abundances across spatio-temporal scales. Accurate predictions have issued from its core premise that all species have identical vital rates. Yet no ecologist believes that species are identical in reality. Here I explain this paradox in terms of the ecological equivalence that species must achieve at their coexistence equilibrium, defined by zero net fitness for all regardless of intrinsic differences between them. I show that the distinction of realised from intrinsic vital rates is crucial to evaluating community resilience. An analysis of competitive interactions reveals how zero-sum patterns of abundance emerge for species with contrasting life-history traits as for identical species. I develop a stochastic model to simulate community assembly from a random drift of invasions sustaining the dynamics of recruitment following deaths and extinctions. Species are allocated identical intrinsic vital rates for neutral dynamics, or random intrinsic vital rates and competitive abilities for niche dynamics either on a continuous scale or between dominant-fugitive extremes. Resulting communities have steady-state distributions of the same type for more or less extremely differentiated species as for identical species. All produce negatively skewed log-normal distributions of species abundance, zero-sum relationships of total abundance to area, and Arrhenius relationships of species to area. Intrinsically identical species nevertheless support fewer total individuals, because their densities impact as strongly on each other as on themselves. Truly neutral communities have measurably lower abundance/area and higher species/abundance ratios. Neutral scenarios can be parameterized as null hypotheses for testing competitive release, which is a sure signal of niche dynamics. Ignoring the true strength of interactions between and within species risks a substantial misrepresentation of community resilience to habitat los

Concerted changes in tropical forest structure and dynamics: evidence from 50 South American long-term plots

Several widespread changes in the ecology of old-growth tropical forests have recently been documented for the late twentieth century, in particular an increase in stem turnover (pan-tropical), and an increase in above-ground biomass (neotropical). Whether these changes are synchronous and whether changes in growth are also occurring is not known. We analysed stand-level changes within 50 long-term. monitoring plots from across South America spanning 1971-2002. We show that: (i) basal area (BA: sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees in a plot) increased significantly over time (by 0.10 +/- 0.04 m(2) ha(-1) yr(-1), mean +/- 95% CI); as did both (ii) stand-level BA growth rates (sum of the increments of BA of surviving trees and BA of new trees that recruited into a plot); and (iii) stand-level BA mortality rates (sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees that died in a plot). Similar patterns were observed on a per-stem basis: (i) stem density (number of stems per hectare; 1 hectare is 10(4) m(2)) increased significantly over time (0.94 +/- 0.63 stems ha(-1) yr(-1)); as did both (ii) stem recruitment rates; and (iii) stem mortality rates. In relative terms, the pools of BA and stem density increased by 0.38 +/- 0.15% and 0.18 +/- 0.12% yr(-1), respectively. The fluxes into and out of these pools-stand-level BA growth, stand-level BA mortality, stem recruitment and stem mortality rates-increased, in relative terms, by an order of magnitude more. The gain terms (BA growth, stem recruitment) consistently exceeded the loss terms (BA loss, stem mortality) throughout the period, suggesting that whatever process is driving these changes was already acting before the plot network was established. Large long-term increases in stand-level BA growth and simultaneous increases in stand BA and stem density imply a continent-wide increase in resource availability which is increasing net primary productivity and altering forest dynamics. Continent-wide changes in incoming solar radiation, and increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and air temperatures may have increased resource supply over recent decades, thus causing accelerated growth and increased dynamism across the world's largest tract of tropical forest

Finite time and asymptotic behaviour of the maximal excursion of a random walk

We evaluate the limit distribution of the maximal excursion of a random walk in any dimension for homogeneous environments and for self-similar supports under the assumption of spherical symmetry. This distribution is obtained in closed form and is an approximation of the exact distribution comparable to that obtained by real space renormalization methods. Then we focus on the early time behaviour of this quantity. The instantaneous diffusion exponent $\nu_n$ exhibits a systematic overshooting of the long time exponent. Exact results are obtained in one dimension up to third order in $n^{-1/2}$. In two dimensions, on a regular lattice and on the Sierpi\'nski gasket we find numerically that the analytic scaling $\nu_n \simeq \nu+A n^{-\nu}$ holds.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted J. Phys.

Contact spheres and hyperk\"ahler geometry

A taut contact sphere on a 3-manifold is a linear 2-sphere of contact forms, all defining the same volume form. In the present paper we completely determine the moduli of taut contact spheres on compact left-quotients of SU(2) (the only closed manifolds admitting such structures). We also show that the moduli space of taut contact spheres embeds into the moduli space of taut contact circles. This moduli problem leads to a new viewpoint on the Gibbons-Hawking ansatz in hyperkahler geometry. The classification of taut contact spheres on closed 3-manifolds includes the known classification of 3-Sasakian 3-manifolds, but the local Riemannian geometry of contact spheres is much richer. We construct two examples of taut contact spheres on open subsets of 3-space with nontrivial local geometry; one from the Helmholtz equation on the 2-sphere, and one from the Gibbons-Hawking ansatz. We address the Bernstein problem whether such examples can give rise to complete metrics.Comment: 29 pages, v2: Large parts have been rewritten; previous Section 6 has been removed; new Section 5.2 on the Gibbons-Hawking ansatz; new Sections 6 and

Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees

Tropical tree height-diameter (H:D) relationships may vary by forest type and region making large-scale estimates of above-ground biomass subject to bias if they ignore these differences in stem allometry. We have therefore developed a new global tropical forest database consisting of 39 955 concurrent H and D measurements encompassing 283 sites in 22 tropical countries. Utilising this database, our objectives were: 1. to determine if H:D relationships differ by geographic region and forest type (wet to dry forests, including zones of tension where forest and savanna overlap). 2. to ascertain if the H:D relationship is modulated by climate and/or forest structural characteristics (e.g. stand-level basal area, A). 3. to develop H:D allometric equations and evaluate biases to reduce error in future local-to-global estimates of tropical forest biomass. Annual precipitation coefficient of variation (PV), dry season length (SD), and mean annual air temperature (TA) emerged as key drivers of variation in H:D relationships at the pantropical and region scales. Vegetation structure also played a role with trees in forests of a high A being, on average, taller at any given D. After the effects of environment and forest structure are taken into account, two main regional groups can be identified. Forests in Asia, Africa and the Guyana Shield all have, on average, similar H:D relationships, but with trees in the forests of much of the Amazon Basin and tropical Australia typically being shorter at any given D than their counterparts elsewhere. The region-environment-structure model with the lowest Akaike\u27s information criterion and lowest deviation estimated stand-level H across all plots to within amedian −2.7 to 0.9% of the true value. Some of the plot-to-plot variability in H:D relationships not accounted for by this model could be attributed to variations in soil physical conditions. Other things being equal, trees tend to be more slender in the absence of soil physical constraints, especially at smaller D. Pantropical and continental-level models provided less robust estimates of H, especially when the roles of climate and stand structure in modulating H:D allometry were not simultaneously taken into account

Spatial effects on species persistence and implications for biodiversity

Natural ecosystems are characterized by striking diversity of form and functions and yet exhibit deep symmetries emerging across scales of space, time and organizational complexity. Species-area relationships and species-abundance distributions are examples of emerging patterns irrespective of the details of the underlying ecosystem functions. Here we present empirical and theoretical evidence for a new macroecological pattern related to the distributions of local species persistence times, defined as the timespans between local colonizations and extinctions in a given geographic region. Empirical distributions pertaining to two different taxa, breeding birds and herbaceous plants, analyzed in a new framework that accounts for the finiteness of the observational period, exhibit power-law scaling limited by a cut-off determined by the rate of emergence of new species. In spite of the differences between taxa and spatial scales of analysis, the scaling exponents are statistically indistinguishable from each other and significantly different from those predicted by existing models. We theoretically investigate how the scaling features depend on the structure of the spatial interaction network and show that the empirical scaling exponents are reproduced once a two-dimensional isotropic texture is used, regardless of the details of the ecological interactions. The framework developed here also allows to link the cut-off timescale with the spatial scale of analysis, and the persistence-time distribution to the species-area relationship. We conclude that the inherent coherence obtained between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns points at a seemingly general feature of the dynamical evolution of ecosystems.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures. Supplementary materials avaliable on http://www.pnas.org/content/108/11/434

On mapping seafloor mineral deposits with central loop transient electromagnetics

Electromagnetic methods are commonly employed in exploration for land-based mineral deposits. A suite of airborne, land, and borehole electromagnetic techniques consisting of different coil and dipole configurations have been developed over the last few decades for this purpose. In contrast, although the commercial value of marine mineral deposits has been recognized for decades, the development of suitable marine electromagnetic methods for mineral exploration at sea is still in its infancy. One particularly interesting electromagnetic method, which could be used to image a mineral deposit on the ocean floor, is the central loop configuration. Central loop systems consist of concentric transmitting and receiving loops of wire. While these types of systems are frequently used in land-based or airborne surveys, to our knowledge neither system has been used for marine mineral exploration. The advantages of using central loop systems at sea are twofold: (1) simplified navigation, because the transmitter and receiver are concentric, and (2) simplified operation because only one compact unit must be deployed. We produced layered seafloor type curves for two particular types of central loop methods: the in-loop and coincident loop configurations. In particular, we consider models inspired by real marine mineral exploration scenarios consisting of overburdens 0 to 5 m thick overlying a conductive ore body 5 to 30 m thick. Modeling and resolution analyses showed that, using a 50 m(2) transmitting loop with 20 A of current, these two configurations are useful tools to determine the overburden depth to a conductive ore deposit and its thickness. In the most extreme case, absolute voltage errors on the order of 10 nV are required to resolve the base of a 30 m thick ore deposit. Whether such noise floors can be achieved in real marine environments remains to be seen

Localization of thermal packets and metastable states in Sinai model

We consider the Sinai model describing a particle diffusing in a 1D random force field. As shown by Golosov, this model exhibits a strong localization phenomenon for the thermal packet: the disorder average of the thermal distribution of the relative distance y=x-m(t), with respect to the (disorder-dependent) most probable position m(t), converges in the limit of infinite time towards a distribution P(y). In this paper, we revisit this question of the localization of the thermal packet. We first generalize the result of Golosov by computing explicitly the joint asymptotic distribution of relative position y=x(t)-m(t) and relative energy u=U(x(t))-U(m(t)) for the thermal packet. Next, we compute in the infinite-time limit the localization parameters Y_k, representing the disorder-averaged probabilities that k particles of the thermal packet are at the same place, and the correlation function C(l) representing the disorder-averaged probability that two particles of the thermal packet are at a distance l from each other. We moreover prove that our results for Y_k and C(l) exactly coincide with the thermodynamic limit of the analog quantities computed for independent particles at equilibrium in a finite sample of length L. Finally, we discuss the properties of the finite-time metastable states that are responsible for the localization phenomenon and compare with the general theory of metastable states in glassy systems, in particular as a test of the Edwards conjecture.Comment: 17 page