Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods

Climate change related modifications in the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration will have an impact on groundwater resources. This study presents a modelling approach exploiting the advantages of integrated hydrological modelling and a broad climate model basis. We applied the integrated MIKE SHE model on a perialpine, small catchment in northern Switzerland near Zurich. To examine the impact of climate change we forced the hydrological model with data from eight GCM-RCM combinations showing systematic biases which are corrected by three different statistical downscaling methods, not only for precipitation but also for the variables that govern potential evapotranspiration. The downscaling methods are evaluated in a split sample test and the sensitivity of the downscaling procedure on the hydrological fluxes is analyzed. The RCMs resulted in very different projections of potential evapotranspiration and, especially, precipitation. All three downscaling methods reduced the differences between the predictions of the RCMs and all corrected predictions showed no future groundwater stress which can be related to an expected increase in precipitation during winter. It turned out that especially the timing of the precipitation and thus recharge is very important for the future development of the groundwater levels. However, the simulation experiments revealed the weaknesses of the downscaling methods which directly influence the predicted hydrological fluxes, and thus also the predicted groundwater levels. The downscaling process is identified as an important source of uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, which has to be accounted for. Therefore it is strongly recommended to test different downscaling methods by using verification data before applying them to climate model data

A 340/380 nm light emitting diode illuminator for Fura-2 AM ratiometric Ca2+ imaging of live cells with better than 5 nM precision

We report the first demonstration of a fast wavelength-switchable 340/380 nm light emitting diode (LED) illuminator for Fura-2 ratiometric Ca2+ imaging of live cells. The LEDs closely match the excitation peaks of bound and free Fura-2 and enables the precise detection of cytosolic Ca2+ concentrations, which is only limited by the Ca2+ response of Fura-2. Using this illuminator, we have shown that Fura-2 acetoxymethyl ester (AM) concentrations as low as 250 nM can be used to detect induced Ca2+ events in tsA-201 cells and while utilizing the 150 µs switching speeds available, it was possible to image spontaneous Ca2+ transients in hippocampal neurons at a rate of 24.39 Hz that were blunted or absent at typical 0.5 Hz acquisition rates. Overall, the sensitivity and acquisition speeds available using this LED illuminator significantly improves the temporal resolution that can be obtained in comparison to current systems and supports optical imaging of fast Ca2+ events using Fura-2

Assessing large-scale weekly cycles in meteorological variables: a review

Several studies have claimed to have found significant weekly cycles of meteorological variables appearing over large domains, which can hardly be related to urban effects exclusively. Nevertheless, there is still an ongoing scientific debate whether these large-scale weekly cycles exist or not, and some other studies fail to reproduce them with statistical significance. In addition to the lack of the positive proof for the existence of these cycles, their possible physical explanations have been controversially discussed during the last years. In this work we review the main results about this topic published during the recent two decades, including a summary of the existence or non-existence of significant weekly weather cycles across different regions of the world, mainly over the US, Europe and Asia. In addition, some shortcomings of common statistical methods for analyzing weekly cycles are listed. Finally, a brief summary of supposed causes of the weekly cycles, focusing on the aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and their impact on meteorological variables as a result of the weekly cycles of anthropogenic activities, and possible directions for future research, is presented

Comparative study of analytical formulae for the fire resistance of steel beam-columns

peer reviewedThis paper investigates the difference between the buckling formulae published in the Eurocode 3 part 1.2 and the recommendations made in the final report of the Buckling Curves in Case of Fire (BCCF) research project. This study compares the critical temperatures obtained with both formulations to assess the impact on the fire endurance of steel columns subjected to axial compression and bending. An extensive comparison of the ultimate temperatures obtained with both formulations has been performed (382 profiles, buckling about the strong and weak axis, 12 column lengths, 6 M/N ratios and uniform and triangular bending moment distributions). Failure temperatures between 400°C and 860°C have been considered. The formulations are also compared with Finite Elements (F.E.) calculations performed for a S235 HEA 200 at 600ºC. This analysis shows that for buckling about the strong axis the BCCF method is better than the EC3 but for buckling about the weak axis the EC3 predicts failure temperatures closer to the F.E. model than the BCCF formulation. Finally, the ultimate temperatures predicted by the two formulations have also been compared with experimental results from the database SCOFIDAT. This comparison shows that there is no major difference between the two formulations for small and large bending moments. This study concludes that the EC3 and BCCF formulations are generally equivalent and that either formulation can be used

Assimilation of 3D radar reflectivities with an ensemble Kalman filter on the convective scale

An ensemble data assimilation system for 3D radar reflectivity data is introduced for the convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling (COSMO) based on the Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation system (KENDA), developed by Deutscher Wetterdienst and its partners. KENDA provides a state-of-the-art ensemble data assimilation system on the convective scale for operational data assimilation and forecasting based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). In this study, the Efficient Modular VOlume RADar Operator is applied for the assimilation of radar reflectivity data to improve short-term predictions of precipitation. Both deterministic and ensemble forecasts have been carried out. A case-study shows that the assimilation of 3D radar reflectivity data clearly improves precipitation location in the analysis and significantly improves forecasts for lead times up to 4 h, as quantified by the Brier Score and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score. The influence of different update rates on the noise in terms of surface pressure tendencies and on the forecast quality in general is investigated. The results suggest that, while high update rates produce better analyses, forecasts with lead times of above 1 h benefit from less frequent updates. For a period of seven consecutive days, assimilation of radar reflectivity based on the LETKF is compared to that of DWD's current operational radar assimilation scheme based on latent heat nudging (LHN). It is found that the LETKF competes with LHN, although it is still in an experimental phase

Random variables with completely independent subcollections

AbstractWe investigate the algebra and geometry of the independence conditions on discrete random variables in which we consider a collection of random variables and study the condition of independence of some subcollections. We interpret independence conditions as an ideal of algebraic relations. After a change of variables, this ideal is generated by generalized 2×2 minors of multi-way tables and linear forms. In particular, let Δ be a simplicial complex on some random variables and A be the table corresponding to the product of those random variables. If A is Δ-independent table then A can be written as the entrywise sum AI+A0 where AI is a completely independent table and A0 is identically 0 in its Δ-margins.We compute the isolated components of the original ideal, showing that there is only one component that could correspond to probability distributions, and relate the algebra and geometry of the main component to that of the Segre embedding. If Δ has fewer than three facets, we are able to compute generators for the main component, show that it is Cohen–Macaulay, and give a full primary decomposition of the original ideal

ERS statement on standardisation of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in chronic lung diseases

The objective of this document was to standardise published cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) protocols for improved interpretation in clinical settings and multicentre research projects. This document: 1) summarises the protocols and procedures used in published studies focusing on incremental CPET in chronic lung conditions; 2) presents standard incremental protocols for CPET on a stationary cycle ergometer and a treadmill; and 3) provides patients’ perspectives on CPET obtained through an online survey supported by the European Lung Foundation. We systematically reviewed published studies obtained from EMBASE, Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library from inception to January 2017. Of 7914 identified studies, 595 studies with 26 523 subjects were included. The literature supports a test protocol with a resting phase lasting at least 3 min, a 3-min unloaded phase, and an 8- to 12-min incremental phase with work rate increased linearly at least every minute, followed by a recovery phase of at least 2–3 min. Patients responding to the survey (n=295) perceived CPET as highly beneficial for their diagnostic assessment and informed the Task Force consensus. Future research should focus on the individualised estimation of optimal work rate increments across different lung diseases, and the collection of robust normative data.The document facilitates standardisation of conducting, reporting and interpreting cardiopulmonary exercise tests in chronic lung diseases for comparison of reference data, multi-centre studies and assessment of interventional efficacy. http://bit.ly/31SXeB