Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework

This study uses a state-space model to estimate the "true" unobserved measure of total output in the U.S. economy. The analysis uses the entire history (i.e., all vintages) of selected real-time data series to compute revisions and corresponding statistics for those series. The revision statistics, along with the most recent data vintage, are used in a state-space model to extract filtered estimates of the "true" series. Under certain assumptions, Monte Carlo simulations suggest this framework can improve published estimates by as much as 30 percent, lasting an average of 11 periods. Real-time experiments using a measure of real gross domestic product show improvement closer to 10 percent, lasting for 1 to 2 quarters.Economic development ; Economic conditions - United States

The perils of globalization: offshoring and economic insecurity of the American worker

According to polls from the 2006 congressional elections, globalization and economic insecurity were the primary concerns of many voters. These Americans apparently believe that they have fallen victim to liberal trade polices and that inexorable trends in globalization are destroying the American Dream. In this analysis, we use time series cross-section data from the General Social Survey (GSS) to examine the links among offshoring, labor market volatility, and the demand for social insurance. Unique among the GSS literature, our analysis includes a pseudo-panel model which permits including auxiliary state and regional macroeconomic information.Globalization ; International economic integration

Fueling expected inflation

Gasoline - Prices ; Inflation (Finance)

The commercial paper market, the Fed, and the 2007-2009 financial crisis

Since its inception in the early nineteenth century, the U.S. commercial paper market has grown to become a key source of short-term funding for major businesses, with issuance averaging over $100 billion per day. In the fall of 2008, the commercial paper market achieved national prominence when increasing market stress caused some to fear that, given its size and importance, the market's failure would sharply worsen the recession. The Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve enacted programs targeted at providing credit and liquidity to restore investor confidence. The authors review the history of the commercial paper market, describe its structure and key relationships to money market mutual funds, and present a detailed discussion of the crisis in the market, including the resulting Federal Reserve programs.Commercial paper issues ; Financial crises

A closer look: assistance programs in the wake of the crisis

An unprecedented amount of aid was extended by the Treasury, Fed and FDIC to companies, agencies and individuals. This aid was necessary and, in many cases, will return a profit to taxpayers.Financial crises ; Intermediation (Finance) ; Business failures

New Symbolic Tools for Differential Geometry, Gravitation, and Field Theory

DifferentialGeometry is a Maple software package which symbolically performs fundamental operations of calculus on manifolds, differential geometry, tensor calculus, Lie algebras, Lie groups, transformation groups, jet spaces, and the variational calculus. These capabilities, combined with dramatic recent improvements in symbolic approaches to solving algebraic and differential equations, have allowed for development of powerful new tools for solving research problems in gravitation and field theory. The purpose of this paper is to describe some of these new tools and present some advanced applications involving: Killing vector fields and isometry groups, Killing tensors and other tensorial invariants, algebraic classification of curvature, and symmetry reduction of field equations.Comment: 42 page

Chameleon effect and the Pioneer anomaly

The possibility that the apparent anomalous acceleration of the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft may be due, at least in part, to a chameleon field effect is examined. A small spacecraft, with no thin shell, can have a more pronounced anomalous acceleration than a large compact body, such as a planet, having a thin shell. The chameleon effect seems to present a natural way to explain the differences seen in deviations from pure Newtonian gravity for a spacecraft and for a planet, and appears to be compatible with the basic features of the Pioneer anomaly, including the appearance of a jerk term. However, estimates of the size of the chameleon effect indicate that its contribution to the anomalous acceleration is negligible. We conclude that any inverse-square component in the anomalous acceleration is more likely caused by an unmodelled reaction force from solar-radiation pressure, rather than a chameleon field effect.Comment: 16 pages; to appear in Phys.Rev.

Cyber-pseudepigraphy: A New Challenge for Higher Education Policy and Management

There is no lack of critical literature dealing with cyber-plagiarism and the implications for assessment in higher education. The practice of the selling of academic papers through the Internet is generally included under the category of plagiarism, although it is suggested that this ought to be considered under the separate category of cyber-pseudepigraphy. Pseudepigraphy is defined in this essay as the deliberate ascription of false authorship to a piece of writing, and cyber-pseudepigraphy is defined as using the Internet to have another person write an academic essay or paper, without this authorship being acknowledged. It is suggested that cyber-pseudepigraphy has widespread implications, and five critical issues are discussed. The essay finally raises the prospect of a return to some form of unseen examination as a method of student assessment as a way of dealing with this problem

Study of the Pioneer Anomaly: A Problem Set

Analysis of the radio-metric tracking data from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft at distances between 20--70 astronomical units from the Sun has consistently indicated the presence of an anomalous, small, and constant Doppler frequency drift. The drift is a blue-shift, uniformly changing at the rate of (5.99 +/- 0.01) x 10^{-9} Hz/s. The signal also can be interpreted as a constant acceleration of each particular spacecraft of (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-8} cm/s^2 directed toward the Sun. This interpretation has become known as the Pioneer anomaly. We provide a problem set based on the detailed investigation of this anomaly, the nature of which remains unexplained.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables, minor corrections before publicatio