Validity of self-reported myocardial infarction and stroke in regions with Sami and Norwegian populations: The SAMINOR 1 Survey and the CVDNOR project

Published version. Source at http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-012717 Objective: Updated knowledge on the validity of self- reported myocardial infarction (SMI) and self-reported stroke (SRS) is needed in Norway. Our objective was to compare questionnaire data and hospital discharge data from regions with Sami and Norwegian populations to assess the validity of these outcomes by ethnicity, sex, age and education. Design: Validation study using cross-sectional questionnaire data and hospital discharge data from all Norwegian somatic hospitals. Participants and setting: 16 865 men and women aged 30 and 36–79 years participated in the Population-based Study on Health and Living Conditions in Sami and Norwegian Populations (SAMINOR) 1 Survey in 2003–2004. Information on SMI and SRS was available from self-administered questionnaires for 15 005 and 15 088 of these participants, respectively. We compared this information with hospital discharge data from 1994 until SAMINOR 1 Survey attendance. Primary and secondary outcomes: Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value and κ. Results: The sensitivity and PPV of SMI were 90.1% and 78.9%, respectively; the PPV increased to 93.1% when all ischaemic heart disease (IHD) diagnoses were included. The SMI prevalence estimate was 2.3% and hospital-based 2.0%. The sensitivity and PPV of SRS were 81.1% and 64.3%, respectively. The SRS prevalence estimate was 1.5% and hospitalisation- based 1.2%. Moderate to no variation was observed in validity according to ethnicity, sex, age and education. Conclusions: The sensitivity and PPV of SMI were high and moderate, respectively; for SRS, both of these measures were moderate. Our results show that SMI from the SAMINOR 1 Survey may be used in aetiological/analytical studies in this population due to a high IHD-specific PPV. The SAMINOR 1 questionnaire may also be used to estimate the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction and acute stroke

Menopausal hormone use and ovarian cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis of 52 epidemiological studies

Background Half the epidemiological studies with information about menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk remain unpublished, and some retrospective studies could have been biased by selective participation or recall. We aimed to assess with minimal bias the effects of hormone therapy on ovarian cancer risk. Methods Individual participant datasets from 52 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally. The principal analyses involved the prospective studies (with last hormone therapy use extrapolated forwards for up to 4 years). Sensitivity analyses included the retrospective studies. Adjusted Poisson regressions yielded relative risks (RRs) versus never-use. Findings During prospective follow-up, 12 110 postmenopausal women, 55% (6601) of whom had used hormone therapy, developed ovarian cancer. Among women last recorded as current users, risk was increased even with <5 years of use (RR 1·43, 95% CI 1·31–1·56; p<0·0001). Combining current-or-recent use (any duration, but stopped <5 years before diagnosis) resulted in an RR of 1·37 (95% CI 1·29–1·46; p<0·0001); this risk was similar in European and American prospective studies and for oestrogen-only and oestrogen-progestagen preparations, but differed across the four main tumour types (heterogeneity p<0·0001), being definitely increased only for the two most common types, serous (RR 1·53, 95% CI 1·40–1·66; p<0·0001) and endometrioid (1·42, 1·20–1·67; p<0·0001). Risk declined the longer ago use had ceased, although about 10 years after stopping long-duration hormone therapy use there was still an excess of serous or endometrioid tumours (RR 1·25, 95% CI 1·07–1·46, p=0·005). Interpretation The increased risk may well be largely or wholly causal; if it is, women who use hormone therapy for 5 years from around age 50 years have about one extra ovarian cancer per 1000 users and, if its prognosis is typical, about one extra ovarian cancer death per 1700 users

Early influences on cardiovascular and renal development

The hypothesis that a developmental component plays a role in subsequent disease initially arose from epidemiological studies relating birth size to both risk factors for cardiovascular disease and actual cardiovascular disease prevalence in later life. The findings that small size at birth is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease have led to concerns about the effect size and the causality of the associations. However, recent studies have overcome most methodological flaws and suggested small effect sizes for these associations for the individual, but an potential important effect size on a population level. Various mechanisms underlying these associations have been hypothesized, including fetal undernutrition, genetic susceptibility and postnatal accelerated growth. The specific adverse exposures in fetal and early postnatal life leading to cardiovascular disease in adult life are not yet fully understood. Current studies suggest that both environmental and genetic factors in various periods of life may underlie the complex associations of fetal growth retardation and low birth weight with cardiovascular disease in later life. To estimate the population effect size and to identify the underlying mechanisms, well-designed epidemiological studies are needed. This review is focused on specific adverse fetal exposures, cardiovascular adaptations and perspectives for new studies. Copyrigh

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

Nonfasting triglycerides and risk of cardiovascular death in men and women from the Norwegian Counties Study

The association between nonfasting triglycerides and cardiovascular disease (CVD) has recently been actualized. The aim of the present study was to investigate nonfasting triglycerides as a predictor of CVD mortality in men and women. A total of 86,261 participants in the Norwegian Counties Study 1974–2007, initially aged 20–50 years and free of CVD were included. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for deaths from CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and all causes by level of nonfasting triglycerides. Mean follow-up was 27.0 years. A total of 9,528 men died (3,620 from CVD, 2,408 IHD, 543 stroke), and totally 5,267 women died (1,296 CVD, 626 IHD, 360 stroke). After adjustment for CVD risk factors other than HDL-cholesterol, the HRs (95% CI) per 1 mmol/l increase in nonfasting triglycerides were 1.16 (1.13–1.20), 1.20 (1.14–1.27), 1.26 (1.19–1.34) and 1.09 (0.96–1.23) for all cause mortality, CVD, IHD, and stroke mortality in women. Corresponding figures in men were 1.03 (1.01–1.04), 1.03 (1.00–1.05), 1.03 (1.00–1.06) and 0.99 (0.92–1.07). In a subsample where HDL-cholesterol was measured (n = 40,144), the association between CVD mortality and triglycerides observed in women disappeared after adjustment for HDL-cholesterol. In a model including the Framingham CHD risk score the effect of triglycerides disappeared in both men and women. In conclusion, nonfasting triglycerides were associated with increased risk of CVD death for both women and men. Adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, however, attenuated the effect. Nonfasting triglycerides added no predictive information on CVD mortality beyond the Framingham CHD risk score in men and women

Leisure time physical activity in middle age predicts the metabolic syndrome in old age: results of a 28-year follow-up of men in the Oslo study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data are scarce on the long term relationship between leisure time physical activity, smoking and development of metabolic syndrome and diabetes. We wanted to investigate the relationship between leisure time physical activity and smoking measured in middle age and the occurrence of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in men that participated in two cardiovascular screenings of the Oslo Study 28 years apart.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Men residing in Oslo and born in 1923–32 (n = 16 209) were screened for cardiovascular diseases and risk factors in 1972/3. Of the original cohort, those who also lived in same area in 2000 were invited to a repeat screening examination, attended by 6 410 men. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to a modification of the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria. Leisure time physical activity, smoking, educational attendance and the presence of diabetes were self-reported.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Leisure time physical activity decreased between the first and second screening and tracked only moderately between the two time points (Spearman's ρ = 0.25). Leisure time physical activity adjusted for age and educational attendance was a significant predictor of both the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in 2000 (odds ratio for moderately vigorous versus sedentary/light activity was 0.65 [95% CI, 0.54–0.80] for the metabolic syndrome and 0.68 [0.52–0.91] for diabetes) (test for trend P < 0.05). However, when adjusted for more factors measured in 1972/3 including glucose, triglycerides, body mass index, treated hypertension and systolic blood pressure these associations were markedly attenuated. Smoking was associated with the metabolic syndrome but not with diabetes in 2000.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Physical activity during leisure recorded in middle age prior to the current waves of obesity and diabetes had an independent predictive association with the presence of the metabolic syndrome but not significantly so with diabetes 28 years later in life, when the subjects were elderly.</p