The economic value of adding capacity at airports – a data-driven model

This article presents a model for the economic value of adding capacity at airports. We start with an extensive literature review, discussing the main findings covering costs and revenues at airports, in particular related to their capacity. We then proceed to an analysis based on a wide range of data sources (financial, operational, quality of service) which have been synthesised into one database. The analysis itself yields interesting results, such as the presence of distinct types of airport and their characteristics. Broadly based on the knowledge gained from the data analysis, we describe a functional model describing the costs and revenues associated with an increase of capacity at an airport. We show how the model can be calibrated with data and present some preliminary results based on the calibration of Paris Charles de Gaulle airport

Vista D5.2 - Final Assessment Report

Vista examines the effects of conflicting market forces on European performance in ATM, through the evaluation of impact metrics on four key stakeholders, and the environment. Vista models the current, 2035 and 2050 timeframes based on various factors and their potential evolution. Vista’s model covers the three temporal phases of ATM (strategic, pre-tactical and tactical), and represents a typical (busy) day of operations. The model is able to estimate the impact of factors on the different phases independently, allowing us to capture how indicators change under different scenarios and execution phases. This deliverable presents the final results obtained from the model, together with a detailed description of the various parts of the model, the analysis performed to prepare the data, and the model calibration

Vista D5.1 - Initial Assessment Report

This deliverable presents Vista’s model and its calibration. The features of each of the model layers (strategic, pre-tactical and tactical) are described along with their calibration. A total of 58 scenarios with four foreground factors are modelled. The results of the layers are produced independently to present the capabilities of the system. These initial results are described and the next steps identified

Study on the Modelling of Airport Economic Value

The primary objective of the Airport Economic Value project is to assess the value of additional passengers or additional capacity at an airport. It aims to qualify and quantify the main relationships and trade-offs between capacity, quality of service and profitability. This study provides a better understanding of the interdependencies of various KPIs and assesses the existence and behaviour of an airport economic optimum, in a similar way to the early 2000s, when estimating the economic en-route capacity optimum

Building a Holistic ATM Model for Future KPI Trade-Offs

We present the model developed within the Vista project, studying the future evolution of trade-offs between Key Performance Indicators. The model has a very broad scope and aims to simulate the changes that business and regulatory forces have at a strategic, pre-tactical and tactical level. The relevant factors that will affect the air transportation system are presented, as well as the scenarios to be simulated. The overall architecture of the model is described and a more detailed presentation of the economic component of the model is given. Some preliminary results of this part of the model illustrate its main mechanisms and capabilities

DATASET2050 D2.2 - Data-driven Model

The purpose of this document, Deliverable 2.2, is to build the structure and specifications of the DATASET2050 data driven model. The door-to-door process is complex and therefore direct performance measurement of the process cannot be done due to availability of data and the high number of involved stakeholders. There are additional phenomena that cannot be measured, so the approach to assess performance is by collecting sample data and/or model the different elements of the mobility processes. This modelling exercise, documented in D2.2, is a powerful tool that assesses how the process performs in the current scenario, and beyond that, identify bottlenecks how modelling paradigms can be improved to take Europe to the 4-hour door-to-door target. The model utilises data that has been sourced, analysed and documented thus far (D2.1), as well as the numerous inputs from the demand and supply profiles (WP3 and WP4, namely: D3.1 and D4.1). This deliverable documents how the model is to be built, along with its scope and the development strategy

A multi-layer model for long-term KPI aligment forecast

This article presents a new holistic model for the air traffic management system built by the Vista project. The model studies the alignment and trade-offs of key performance indicators in the 2035 and 2050 horizons. It is based on three layers modelling the strategic, pre-tactical and tactical phases of ATM. It heavily features multi-agents, is highly data-driven, and includes highly microscopic models. It is runnable as a ‘what-if’ tool and has been applied to different scenarios, including long-term forecasts for 2035 and 2050. The results obtained with the model so far show clear trends, including surging emissions, an important reduction in delay uncertainty, and increases of flight plan buffer

An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delay, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as an open-source software and is freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on an airspace which implements these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations but the conflicts are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controllers. In order to investigate this specific aspect, we consider some metrics used to measure traffic complexity. We first show that in non-free-routing situations our simulator deals with complexity in a way similar to what humans would do. This allows us to be confident that the results of our numerical simulations relative to the free-routing can reasonably forecast how human controllers would behave in this new situation. Specifically, our numerical simulations show that most of the complexity metrics decrease with free-routing, while the few metrics which increase are all linked to the flight level changes. This is a non-trivial result since intuitively the complexity should increase with free-routing because of problematic geometries and more dispersed conflicts over the airspace

Vista D2.1 Supporting Data for Business and Regulatory Scenarios Report

Vista examines the effects of conflicting market forces on European performance in ATM, through the evaluation of impact metrics on four key stakeholders, and the environment. The review of regulatory and business factors is presented. Vista will model the current and future (2035, 2050) framework based on the impact of regulatory and business factors. These factors are obtained from a literature review of regulations, projects and technological and operational changes. The current value of those factors and their possible evolution are captured in this deliverable

DATASET2050 D5.2 - Assessment execution

Over recent years there has been an increasing effort to enhance European door-to-door mobility. Several initiatives have focused on improving the seamlessness, effectiveness and predictability of the European transport system through improving the related systems, technologies, concepts or processes. In an effort to establish a concrete methodology for assessing the system's current performance, this document describes a data-driven model centred on the current and future performance of European mobility. Included in this study, but not restricted to, is data and insight related to the Flightpath 2050 goal that states "90% of travellers within Europe [will be] able to complete their journey, door-to-door within four hours" where this journey includes at least one leg by air. In this report, the current door-to-door times and prices are quantified, dis-aggregated by passenger profile, door-to-door phase (door-kerb-gate-gate-kerb-door) and airport considered. In addition, major bottlenecks are identified that are hindering the 4-hour goal