Application of fuzzy set and Dempster-Shafer theory to organic geochemistry interpretation

An application of fuzzy sets and Dempster Shafter Theory (DST) in modeling the interpretational process of organic geochemistry data for predicting the level of maturities of oil and source rock samples is presented. This was accomplished by (1) representing linguistic imprecision and imprecision associated with experience by a fuzzy set theory, (2) capturing the probabilistic nature of imperfect evidences by a DST, and (3) combining multiple evidences by utilizing John Yen's generalized Dempster-Shafter Theory (GDST), which allows DST to deal with fuzzy information. The current prototype provides collective beliefs on the predicted levels of maturity by combining multiple evidences through GDST's rule of combination

Chemical transport model ozone simulations for spring 2001 over the western Pacific:comparisons with TRACE-P lidar, ozonesondes, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer columns

Two closely related chemical transport models (CTMs) employing the same high-resolution meteorological data (similar to180 km x similar to180 km x similar to600 m) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used to simulate the ozone total column and tropospheric distribution over the western Pacific region that was explored by the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) measurement campaign in February-April 2001. We make extensive comparisons with ozone measurements from the lidar instrument on the NASA DC-8, with ozonesondes taken during the period around the Pacific Rim, and with TOMS total column ozone. These demonstrate that within the uncertainties of the meteorological data and the constraints of model resolution, the two CTMs (FRSGC/UCI and Oslo CTM2) can simulate the observed tropospheric ozone and do particularly well when realistic stratospheric ozone photochemistry is included. The greatest differences between the models and observations occur in the polluted boundary layer, where problems related to the simplified chemical mechanism and inadequate horizontal resolution are likely to have caused the net overestimation of about 10 ppb mole fraction. In the upper troposphere, the large variability driven by stratospheric intrusions makes agreement very sensitive to the timing of meteorological features

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: A current consensus

In the early 1970's, a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere was proposed. A large fleet was never built for economic, political, and environmental reasons. Technological improvements may make it economically feasible to develop supersonic aircraft for current markets. Some key results of earlier scientific programs designed to assess the impact of aircraft emissions on stratospheric ozone are reviewed, and factors that must be considered to assess the environmental impact of aircraft exhaust are discussed. These include the amount of nitrogen oxides injected in the stratosphere, horizontal transport, and stratosphere/troposphere assessment models are presented. Areas in which improvements in scientific understanding and model representation must be made to reduce the uncertainty in model calculations are identified

Relative effects on stratospheric ozone of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

Four atmospheric modeling groups have calculated relative effects of several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a, carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) on stratospheric ozone. Effects on stratospheric ozone were calculated for each compound and normalized relative to the effect of CFC-11. These models include the representations for homogeneous physical and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere but do no account for either heterogeneous chemistry or polar dynamics which are important in the spring time loss of ozone over Antarctica. Relative calculated effects using a range of models compare reasonably well. Within the limits of the uncertainties of these model results, compounds now under consideration as functional replacements for fully halogenated compounds have modeled stratospheric ozone reductions of 10 percent or less of that of CFC-11. Sensitivity analyses examined the sensitivity of relative calculated effects to levels of other trace gases, assumed transport in the models, and latitudinal and seasonal local dependencies. Relative effects on polar ozone are discussed in the context of evolving information on the special processes affecting ozone, especially during polar winter-springtime. Lastly, the time dependency of relative effects were calculated

Theory and observations: Model simulations of the period 1955-1985

The main objective of the theoretical studies presented here is to apply models of stratospheric chemistry and transport in order to understand the processes that control stratospheric ozone and that are responsible for the observed variations. The model calculations are intended to simulate the observed behavior of atmospheric ozone over the past three decades (1955-1985), for which there exists a substantial record of both ground-based and, more recently, satellite measurements. Ozone concentrations in the atmosphere vary on different time scales and for several different causes. The models described here were designed to simulate the effect on ozone of changes in the concentration of such trace gases as CFC, CH4, N2O, and CO2. Changes from year to year in ultraviolet radiation associated with the solar cycle are also included in the models. A third source of variability explicitly considered is the sporadic introduction of large amounts of NO sub x into the stratosphere during atmospheric nuclear tests

Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming)

The effect of harmonized emissions on aerosol properties in global models – an AeroCom experiment

The effects of unified aerosol sources on global aerosol fields simulated by different models are examined in this paper. We compare results from two AeroCom experiments, one with different (ExpA) and one with unified emissions, injection heights, and particle sizes at the source (ExpB). Surprisingly, harmonization of aerosol sources has only a small impact on the simulated diversity for aerosol burden, and consequently optical properties, as the results are largely controlled by model-specific transport, removal, chemistry (leading to the formation of secondary aerosols) and parameterizations of aerosol microphysics (e.g. the split between deposition pathways) and to a lesser extent on the spatial and temporal distributions of the (precursor) emissions. The burdens of black carbon and especially sea salt become more coherent in ExpB only, because the large ExpA diversity for these two species was caused by few outliers. The experiment also indicated that despite prescribing emission fluxes and size distributions, ambiguities in the implementation in individual models can lead to substantial differences. These results indicate the need for a better understanding of aerosol life cycles at process level (including spatial dispersal and interaction with meteorological parameters) in order to obtain more reliable results from global aerosol simulations. This is particularly important as such model results are used to assess the consequences of specific air pollution abatement strategies

Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change