Space Climate Manifestation in Earth Prices - from Medieval England Up to Modern Usa

In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that includes several nonlinear transition elements. These non-linear elements are characterized by threshold sensitivity to external parameters and lead to very inhomogeneous local sensitivity of the price to space weather conditions. It is noted that "soft type" models are the most adequate for description of this class of connections. Two main observational effects suitable for testing causal connections of this type of sensitivity are considered: burst-like price reactions on changes in solar activity and price asymmetry for selected phases of the sunspot cycle. The connection, discovered earlier for wheat prices of Medieval England, is examined in this work on the basis of another 700-year data set of consumable prices in England. Using the same technique as in the previous part of our work (Pistilnik and Yom Din 2004) we show that statistical parameters of the interval distributions for price bursts of consumables basket and for sunspot minimum states are similar one to another, like it was reported earlier for wheat price bursts. Possible sources of these consistencies between three different multiyear samples are discussed. For search of possible manifestations of the "space weather - wheat market" connection in modern time, we analyze dynamics of wheat prices in the USA in the twentieth century. We show that the wheat prices revealed a maximum/minimum price asymmetry consistent with the phases of the sunspot cycle. We discuss possible explanations of this observed asymmetry, unexpected under conditions of globalization of the modern wheat market.Comment: First International Symposium on Space Climate: Direct and Indirect Observations of Long-Term Solar Activity, 20-23 June 2004, Oulu, Finlan

Subitizing with Variational Autoencoders

Numerosity, the number of objects in a set, is a basic property of a given visual scene. Many animals develop the perceptual ability to subitize: the near-instantaneous identification of the numerosity in small sets of visual items. In computer vision, it has been shown that numerosity emerges as a statistical property in neural networks during unsupervised learning from simple synthetic images. In this work, we focus on more complex natural images using unsupervised hierarchical neural networks. Specifically, we show that variational autoencoders are able to spontaneously perform subitizing after training without supervision on a large amount images from the Salient Object Subitizing dataset. While our method is unable to outperform supervised convolutional networks for subitizing, we observe that the networks learn to encode numerosity as basic visual property. Moreover, we find that the learned representations are likely invariant to object area; an observation in alignment with studies on biological neural networks in cognitive neuroscience

External perceptions of successful university brands

Branding in universities has become an increasingly topical issue, with some institutions committing substantial financial resources to branding activities. The particular characteristics of the sector present challenges for those seeking to build brands and it therefore seems to be timely and appropriate to investigate the common approaches of those institutions perceived as having successful brands. This study is exploratory in nature, seeking to investigate how successfully UK universities brand themselves, whether they are distinct and if the sector overall communicates effectively. This is approached through examining the perspective of opinion formers external to universities but closely involved with the sector – a key stakeholder group in UK higher education Overall, the research’s exploratory nature aims to further the debate on effective branding in UK higher education. The findings and conclusions identify some issues surrounding university branding activity; most UK universities were considered to be distinct from one another, but few were seen to have real fully formed brands. Although a number of institutions that were seen as having more ‘successful’ brands were identified, it was argued that whilst many UK universities communicate their brand well enough to key stakeholders, they fail to consistently do this across all audiences. It was also suggested that UK universities may concentrate on areas of perceived immediate strategic importance (in terms of branding) to an extent where others are neglected

The allocation of energy resources in the very long run

This paper investigates the Nordhaus (1973) model developed to understand how markets allocate energy resources. In particular, the model proposes that royalties earned by non-renewable energy producers are closely related to the cost of the backstop energy source, the interest rate and the switching date to the backstop energy source. Here, the paper presents the prices of the main and backstop energy sources, extraction costs and royalties, as well as transport costs, taxes and interest rates, over more than five hundred years in Britain to test the model’s ability to explain very long run market behavior. While the model needs a more rigorous analysis, the very long run data and this crude test suggests that certain episodes might be explained by the model and that others do not appear to be. Also, each of the three explanatory variables do appear to be relevant in these explained episodes. In general, though, energy markets appear to be myopic, unaware of the limits of the non-renewable resource being traded, and only in moments of crisis do they consider the finiteness of the resource and, then, perhaps too dramatically, triggering major new technological, infrastructure and R&D investments

Come back Marshall, all is forgiven? : Complexity, evolution, mathematics and Marshallian exceptionalism

Marshall was the great synthesiser of neoclassical economics. Yet with his qualified assumption of self-interest, his emphasis on variation in economic evolution and his cautious attitude to the use of mathematics, Marshall differs fundamentally from other leading neoclassical contemporaries. Metaphors inspire more specific analogies and ontological assumptions, and Marshall used the guiding metaphor of Spencerian evolution. But unfortunately, the further development of a Marshallian evolutionary approach was undermined in part by theoretical problems within Spencer's theory. Yet some things can be salvaged from the Marshallian evolutionary vision. They may even be placed in a more viable Darwinian framework.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Exploring rationales for branding a university: Should we be seeking to measure branding in UK universities?

Although branding is now widespread among UK universities, the application of branding principles in the higher education sector is comparatively recent and may be controversial for internal audiences who question its suitability and efficiency. This paper seeks to investigate how and whether the effectiveness of branding activity in the higher education sector should be evaluated and measured, through exploratory interviews with those who often drive it; UK University marketing professionals. Conclusions suggest that university branding is inherently complex and therefore application of commercial approaches may be over simplistic. Whilst marketing professionals discuss challenges they do not necessarily have a consistent view of the objectives of branding activity although all were able to clearly articulate branding objectives for their university, including both qualitative and, to some extent, quantitative metrics. Some measures of the real value of branding activity are therefore suggested but a key debate is perhaps whether the objectives and role of branding in higher education needs to be clarified, and a more consistent view of appropriate metrics reached? Various challenges in implementing branding approaches are also highlighted

Environment change, economy change and reducing conflict at source

At a time when fossil fuel burning, nationalism, ethnic and religious intolerance, and other retrograde steps are being promoted, the prospects for world peace and environmental systems stability may appear dim. Yet now is it the more important to continue to examine the sources of conflict. A major obstacle to general progress is the currently dominant economic practice and theory, which is here called the economy-as-usual, or economics-as-usual, as appropriate. A special obstacle to constructive change is the language in which economic matters are usually discussed. This language is narrow, conservative, technical and often obscure. The rapid changes in the environment (physical and living) are largely kept in a separate compartment. If, however, the partition is removed, economics -as-usual, with its dependence on growth and its widening inequality, is seen to be unsustainable. Radical economic change, for better or worse, is to be expected. Such change is here called economy change. The change could be for the better if it involved an expansion of the concept of economics itself, along the lines of oikonomia, a modern revival of a classical Greek term for management or household. In such an expanded view, not everything of economic value can be measured. It is argued that economics-as-usual is the source of much strife. Some features are indicated of a less conflictual economy - more just, cooperative and peaceful. These features include a dignified life available to all people as of right, the word 'wealth' being reconnected with weal, well and well-being, and 'work' being understood as including all useful activity

A novel cell-type deconvolution algorithm reveals substantial contamination by immune cells in saliva, buccal and cervix

AIM: An outstanding challenge in epigenome studies is the estimation of cell-type proportions in complex epithelial tissues. MATERIALS & METHODS: Here, we construct and validate a DNA methylation reference and algorithm for complex tissues that contain epithelial, immune and nonimmune stromal cells. RESULTS: Using this reference, we show that easily accessible tissues such as saliva, buccal and cervix exhibit substantial variation in immune cell (IC) contamination. We further validate our reference in the context of oral cancer, where it correctly predicts an increased IC infiltration in cancer but suppressed in patients with highest smoking exposure. Finally, our method can improve the specificity of differentially methylated CpG calls in epithelial cancer. CONCLUSION: The degree and variation of IC contamination in complex epithelial tissues is substantial. We provide a valuable resource and tool for assessing the epithelial purity and IC contamination of samples and for identifying differential methylation in such complex tissues

An optimised saliva collection method to produce high-yield, high-quality RNA for translational research

Saliva represents an ideal matrix for diagnostic biomarker development as it is readily available and requires no invasive collection procedures. However, salivary RNA is labile and rapidly degrades. Previous attempts to isolate RNA from saliva have yielded poor quality and low concentrations. Here we compare collection and processing methods and propose an approach for future studies. The effects of RNA stabilisers, storage temperatures, length of storage and fasting windows were investigated on pooled saliva samples from healthy volunteers. Isolated RNA was assessed for concentration and quality. Bacterial growth was investigated through RT-PCR using bacterial and human primers. Optimal conditions were implemented and quality controlled in a clinical setting. The addition of RNAlater increased mean RNA yield from 4912 ng/μl to 15,473 ng and RNA Integrity Number (RIN) from 4.5 to 7.0. No significant changes to RNA yield were observed for storage at room temperature beyond 1 day or at -80 °C. Bacterial growth did not occur in samples stored at ambient temperature for up to a week. There was a trend towards higher RNA concentration when saliva was collected after overnight fasting but no effect on RIN. In the clinic, RNA yields of 6307 ng and RINs of 3.9 were achieved, improving on previous reports. The method we describe here is a robust, clinically feasible saliva collection method using preservative that gives high concentrations and improved RINs compared to saliva collected without preservative